I am working on simulating tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean by weather research and forecasting model (WRF). Firstly, I tried to study the impact of different microphysics schemes on the forecasting tropical cyclones. The cyclone track was far from the best-observed track as shown in the attached figure. Then, I did WRFDA (3DVAR) simulation for the same case to improve the result. WRFDA model estimated the cyclone track but didn't estimate the minimum sea level pressure as shown in the attached Figure. I think that the problem is in estimating the PSFC. Thus, I would like to ask if anyone has recommendations to improve the results.
Time variation of MSLP is not the best diagnostic for midlatitude cyclones. I propose look at intensity of the vortex during nonlinear evolution for example its vorticity, potential vorticity, mean azimuthal velocity with respect to the core, and pressure contours around the core accompanied by water vapour tracer field. By these diagnostics the evaluation of nonlinear evolution is much easier.
You can watch this week, as the Cyclone Fani, instead of making landfall in the middle of India, is getting pushed by the wall of the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud at 120 degrees off track towards the NE, to smack right in the center of Bangladesh. You can see from comparing the daily NAAPS dust cloud images with the storm track, that it only takes 20-40 micrograms of atmospheric dust per cubic meter, to make a tropical cyclone change its path? Instead, if we eliminate the atmospheric dust clouds, by replanting those areas with local native plants, then we could have the rain clouds come back naturally, and direct the rainfall from cyclones to desert areas, rather than create floods for the people of Bangladesh later on this week?
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Linguistics
- Composition Studies
- Publication