the Topic of predictability in weather Regimes is crucial in ecology. Shifting Trends in average values do not tell much about the ecological Impacts of climatic changes, but reduced predictability / reliability for instance of seasonal Patterns of precipitation will have very strong effects. up to now, there is just Research done on extreme climatic Events and extreme weather Events, but this Needs to be related to the timining and the regularity of certain conditions.

with other words this question adresses a very General issue! which is not related to a certain phenomenon alone.

Dear Neil Christopher Wells,

The deterministic predictability of the atmosphere is limited to about 12 days (Thompson 1957; Lorenz 1969a, 1969b, 1973 - References in link below). This is practically demonstrated in the work Gavrilov, Jovanovic and Janjic (2011).

See link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252181604_Sensitivity_of_a_long-range_numerical_weather_forecast_model_to_small_changes_of_model_parameters

Regards,

Milivoj B. Gavrilov

Article Sensitivity of a long-range numerical weather forecast model...