What happened in these countries, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, high prices, unemployment, bribery, and theft of resources could not be described in Libya, for example. It was a stable and rich country that exports per day nearly a million barrels of oil. Currently, the Libyan citizen remains without electricity for a period exceeding 14 An hour a day, the Libyan citizen suffers from a shortage of basic food commodities. Crime is widespread. Drug abuse. Weapon proliferation among Libyans, according to recent reports. Libya has a population of 6.7 million. The number of weapons scattered among Libyans is 23 million weapons more than the population.
Is this the Arab Spring?
If you meant this only as rhetorical question, you can ignore my answer. But if you actually want a truthful answer, the Arab spring did begin as just that. While lots of countries had various plans and agendas extending over time, "the" Arab spring was never one plan as such and emerged sui generis. High prices, unemployment, bribery, and theft of resources were the case in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, they just got worse as a result of the Arab spring, which is usually the case with "revolutions." Things get worse before they get better. Economists call it the J curve, and, realizing I am being overly simplistic and monsectoral to make one point, civil wars delay the upswing of the curve and recovery. Libya was "stable and rich," but it was also highly corrupt, had a terrible and predatory domestic economy, and could be simply described by the word "theft" by the Qadhafi family and its cronies. Lack of electricity now was not caused by Qadhafi, of course, and it was caused indirectly by the revolution, but the failure was the failure of Libyans in 2011-3 to organize themselves politically, followed by Haftar's war of choice declared in 2014. Sorting things out politically in three years before a partially counterrevolutionary (and anti-democratic) war would be declared against the still disorganized post-revolutionary order was of course a tall task, especially since they didn't expect the war, but blaming the situation entirely on rapacious foreigners is popular in Libya, and wrong. Well-meaning foreign governments (and individuals) were usually kept away from doing much and waiting most of the time from 2011-4, until it was too late. I was one of them working in and on Libya. Shortage of food and crime are much worse now than prior to the revolution, exacerbated by the unnecessary civl war and unexpected pandemic, but drug use was already there before the revolution as was unnecessary levels of economic misery for such a rich country. So, no, this is not the Arab spring. But its not simply the opposite of the Arab spring. It's a terrible civil war in a pandemic, with a fragile ceasefire threatened to be spoiled by the same general that started the 2014 war, and such power struggles often follow revolutions, throughout history--many if not most of them (wars in US, Europe, Russia, etc. etc, after revolutions)--and where this going, we don't know yet. And ultimately Libyans have to sort this out by talking with each other (with foreign help), or things will get worse and worse and worse.
William Lawrence want a truthful answer Thank you for your answer, dear sir. I will ask several questions. Are what happened in Libya and the countries of the so-called Arab Spring revolutions?
I am Libyan and I know very well what happened and what is happening in Libya
In the days of Al-Qaddafi, Libya was providing aid to the outside world, Libya is the only country that has no debts from other countries. I challenge anyone in the world to say that there is a Libyan who is hungry now.
Why Mr. Haftar came out against the revolutionaries? The answer is it came out when the heads became cut off from the bodies in a despicable terrorist organization that does not represent Islam and all its members from the neighboring countries Tunisia, Egypt, Mali Algeria How did they enter Libya and those who helped to enter them in the recent past, a terrorist cell was eliminated in the far south of Libya in the city of Sabha and it was The members of this cell are Saudi and Australian, from the origin of Libya Do you know how far from Sabha from the capital, Tripoli, about 1000 kilometers, and from Benazi more than that, how they entered Libya and finally the Libyan army led by Haftar will fight terrorism, terrorists and the Muslim Brotherhood that was taken from Tripoli is its capital, and the last question: What does Turkey want from Libya, I leave the answer for you
Will European countries allow a Turkish presence in the Mediterranean, and here I mean Greece and France?
Libya before the uprising and ultimately the intervention of NATO, was a stable and developed Africa nation. This means that the initial stability and development of the country did not necessarily stop the motion of the domino from taking effect (Properly defined, the domino theory holds that destabilization from any cause in one country can result in the collapse of order in a neighboring country, starting a chain of events that can affect a series of contiguous states in turn"). Consequently, the wave speed V (the spread of instability, i.e. borderline tribal groups and ethnicity that cut across the affected countries) is only dependent on the following parameters: domino spacing - d (the boundary it shares), domino height - h (the height of the instability in the origin country), and gravity - g (the intensity to guarantee its spread) refer to the multiplication of the features - V(d, h, g) to arriving at the effect of the fall of Gaddafi regime (foreign and international intervention) and its consequential spread of instability in the region particularly it effects in the Sahel region. The fall of the Gaddafi regime and the further state of instability in Libya resulted in the spread and export of instability in the region. The current situation in the Sahel region can be called the culmination of a political instability including recurrent and common problems in Libya as its adverse effect are being felt in many countries in the Sahel region.
For ease of reference and further study see -
(PDF) PROMULGATION OF INSTABILITY IN THE SAHEL REGION: POST GADHAFI ERA IN PERSPECTIVE. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343194832_PROMULGATION_OF_INSTABILITY_IN_THE_SAHEL_REGION_POST_GADHAFI_ERA_IN_PERSPECTIVE [accessed Sep 16 2020].
- The dynamics and patterns of political stability in Libya induced by societal and environmental stresses (the eventual protest), offers a more useful scale and approach for analysing socio-cultural and environmental dynamics that transcends national country’s boundaries in the region, such as refugee flows, transnational conflict and crime that disregard national frontiers.
- The former Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi began stockpiling a substantial arsenal of small arms and lightweight weapons to act as a deterrent to external and internal threats. During the 2011 uprising, the undocumented locations of weapons in Libya were abandoned by Gaddafi loyalists as his grips were captured by the rebels. Unguarded caches of weapons were consequently looted by rebels, militias, common civilians and other criminal groups, who took the weaponries for diverse reasons stretching from self-protection to sale on black markets or to be used in violent clashes elsewhere.
- Had Western governments foreseen the extent to which the possible consequences of toppling the government of Libya would be, there might have been no need to rescue anothers from disaster.
- For ease of reference and further study see
https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/6JUGJHXBHBFHNHJVM5HK/full?target=10.1080/02589001.2020.1796946
or
(PDF) Conceptualisation of regional instability in Sahel: modelling ABM-AfriLand-Rebel Approach. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344193007_Conceptualisation_of_regional_instability_in_Sahel_modelling_ABM-AfriLand-Rebel_Approach [accessed Sep 16 2020].
Stephen Osaherumwen Idahosa The question that should be asked, why did Russia abandon Gaddafi in the Security Council in 2011, why Russia did not use its veto power, Did Russia's interest in Gaddafi end in 2011?
I think its the result of ignorance and the grief of the peoples, but it is overridden by different ideologies and agenda
> Are what happened in Libya and the countries of the so-called Arab Spring revolutions?
Not yet. Ultimately, that's a question for historians and for the future. But certainly most of the protesters in most of the 18 countries that demonstrated (rose up) wanted revolutionary, systemic change. I would argue that these are not yet revolutions just as the springtime of the peoples in 1848 eventually got rid of monarchies in power in Europe, but over time, whereas the short term change was not (yet) revolutionary.
>I am Libyan and I know very well what happened and what is happening in Libya
In the days of Al-Qaddafi, Libya was providing aid to the outside world,
If you start with that, then you probably don't know as much as you think you do about what was really going on with the Libyan regime, as that aid was in part to aggrandize the leader and worked against the interests in many cases of both Libyans and those in other countries. It was in many cases and many respects manipulative aid designed to serve Q's personal power interests, not Libya's interests.
>Libya is the only country that has no debts from other countries.
That's just wrong. Its propaganda.
> I challenge anyone in the world to say that there is a Libyan who is hungry now.
You can challenge them and lose the challenge. Many residents of Libya are food insecure, and some go hungry. The UN has plenty of data on this. Its not my job to prove against talking points. The objective data is clear on this.
>Why Mr. Haftar came out against the revolutionaries? The answer is it came out when the heads became cut off from the bodies in a despicable terrorist organization that does not represent Islam and all its members from the neighboring countries Tunisia, Egypt, Mali Algeria
The heads were cut off by ISIS. Heftar barely fought ISIS and let them cross through his territory from Derna. ISIS was defeated mostly by the Misratans, the Bunyan Marsus. Head-cutting of course happens in all parts of Libya. Some of it on video by Heftar's lieutenants. The Kaniyat brothers on your side too created mass graves in Tarhuna. The first victim in war is the truth, and you clearly are a victim.
>How did they enter Libya
The same way every one else enters Libya, by plane, car, boat, or on foot.
> and those who helped to enter them in the recent past,
The revolutionaries didn't enter Libya, they live there. ISIS came from all over, but mostly from Tunisia by car. They didn't need help. Tunisians enter Libya without much help. Some did come over the Egyptian border from Asia, again, without help.
> a terrorist cell was eliminated in the far south of Libya in the city of Sabha and it was The members of this cell are Saudi and Australian, from the origin of Libya Do you know how far from Sabha from the capital, Tripoli, about 1000 kilometers,
Once you are in Libya, its not hard to get around by car. 1000 kilometers is nothing. I suspect they came by plane. I don't think Australians and Saudis come by car.
>and from Benazi more than that, how they entered Libya and finally the Libyan army led by Haftar will fight terrorism,
Some Saudis come to Libya with Heftar's help. His Salafists follow a Saudi Sheikh... (the 604 batallion)
>terrorists
heftar didn't fight the terrorists well at all
> and the Muslim Brotherhood
nor did he fight the MB's well and most of them aren't armed anyway...
> that was taken from Tripoli is its capital, and the last question: What does Turkey want from Libya, I leave the answer for you
something not unlike what the russians and emiratis want--a geopolitical position, a strategic goal...
>Will European countries allow a Turkish presence in the Mediterranean,
They have no choice. Turkey is a major mediterranean country.
>and here I mean Greece and France?
Their maximalist positions on islands are as weak as Turkey's on other issues and they will have to negotiate in the end even if they choose to fight first... One Greek island 2 km off the Turkish coast claims an area 4000 times its size. Unless you want to give them Instanbul, there will have to be a negotiation...
William Lawrence we have idioms in our language Arabic language the idioms is ( If an egg is broken by power from external life is finish BUT if the egg broken inside the life has begun All these revolutions came from an external force with lies, to change for the better and in fact for the worse
@Jamal Ali Mohamed Ehdadan could you please, provide us with the Arabic version of the idioms ( If an egg is broken by power from external life is finish BUT if the egg broken inside the life has begun) in Arabic language?
Stephen Osaherumwen Idahosa عندما تنكسر البيضة من الخارج فهذا يعنى النهاية ولكن اذا انسكرت البيضة بفعل قوة داخلية فهذا يعنى بداية للحياة جديدة
William Lawrence Do you still believe that there is an Arab Spring after Hillary Clinton's letters ( E mails ) were declassified?
Article Rethinking the Arab Spring in the context of geohistorical t...
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