A unique question. Trying to get details

Sir,

See the link

https://youtu.be/aK4A_t2Rnuc

Dear Nishad T M

You are trying to mix prophecies and science; they are poles apart. Could you please tell me on what basis Nostradamus's prophecies (prediction is a wrong choice of word as there is no basis) were made?

There is science of climate still evolving. I think the future efforts in the numerical modeling of atmosphere through physical and chemical processes might help predict disasters without any help from Nostradamus imagination.

Sir,

Based on previous history, Probability of happening of prediction or prophacy of Nostradamus is more than 0.9.

But the time period of happenings is not known exactly. Also it is not sure the interpretation of his prophacy is on Idukki Dam or not?

Earth quake, Debris flow and intense rain fall are the phenomina to decide time of happening the Idukki and other Dams disaster.

For the safety of Keralites, (humanbeings of that region) the politicians and scientists must think on the probability of predictions (prophacies) of a well known person, the propbability of the interpretations of prediction ( -to become the prediction is on Idukki related Dams)and if there is more probability, it should relate with recent climate crisis of Kerala, the probability of happening of earth quake, debris flow, intense rains in the region under consideration .

Then they must think on a solution , just like allowing weak flows regularly in different routes to reduce water level .Also an immediate new energy source using tides and windmills and solar panels on sea water in Arabian sea must be developed to avoid dependance on Dams to create the required electicity in Kerala.

The actions should be started as soon as possible.

Nishad T M

Dear Nishad T M ,

Correlation may not be the causality; there are various spurious correlations dancing around the internet. To be called them predictions, we should have clear scientific evidence. Please present such evidences of the causality if you think we need to give value to such things.

Thinking of well-being of the human-kind is the first step to solve the important problems; however, taking the wrong paths won't take us up until there are no evidences. If I were you, I would see the methods more than outcomes. This is the reason why I mentioned in the earlier answer that "the future efforts in the numerical modeling of atmosphere through physical and chemical processes might help predict disasters ". Though the numerical modeing evolved much, there are crucial gaps and holes to fill to be consistent with the predictions. For example, prediction of the monsoon and the rain it brings to the regions of India.

Regards,

Kishore

Sir,

The Idukki dam has a storage capacity of 2,000 million cubic metres (MCM) and can hold the flood water from Mullaperiyar dam, but not if its water level is high. On four previous occasions, the water of both the reservoirs have been full to the brim. The situation would be disastrous if the Mullaperiyar dam fails during the monsoon. “Considering the steep topography of the region and the elevated position of the dam, the Rs velocity of the flash flood will be very high,” . The high-velocity flash flood would bring down much soil and floating debris, which can clog spillways and exert considerable pressure on the Idukki dam and two adjacent dams, which together form the Idukki reservoir. If they fail to contain the water load, all the nine dams downstream across the Periyar will get breached and the flash flood will run through four central Kerala districts and the port city of Kochi, affecting over three million people, before it merges with the Arabian Sea.

Dam as a permanent structure is a false conception. Bharat Jhunjhunwala, an economist who has researched the dismantling of dams in the US, says decommissioning of a dam has serveral consequences. So the cost of decommissioning and, in cases like Kerala, building new dams and the new site required to dump the debris must be factored in the impact assessment at the time of commissioning a dam. But this does not happen in India.

The dam falls in quake-prone area. Between December 2000 and January 2001, the region was hit by tremors of magnitude of up to 5. The Geological Survey of India places Kerala in Zone III, where quakes with magnitude up to 6.5 can happen. A study by the Centre For Earth Sciences at Thiruvananthapuram, in 2001, and a 2009 report submitted to the Kerala government by IIT- Roorkee say the dam cannot withstand quakes of magnitude of six and above. IIT-Roorkee researchers found 22 active faults in the area surrounding the dam. Besides, if one considers the maximum rainfall the region receives, the dam is hydrologically unsafe, says A K Gosain, professor at IIT-Delhi, who has studied the dam for its safety concerns.

Dear Nishad T M ,

Now I understand your problem clearly. I really respect you for your thoughts to safeguard human-kind. Having said that, the way you look for the solution to the problem is not scientifically valid, at least up-to my mind. There are better ways to assess than baseless prophecies. Keeping bureaucracy and politics away, it is a purely climatological problem. Although there are issues in the predictions, you may find the climate model prediction data to analyse to predict if such disaster is going to happen in the future. As far as I know, you can find the prediction data up-to next 80 years; however, I don't rely much and feel the predictions are accurate.

Hope this helps!

It's your problem, you solve it. It is a scientific etiquette that we should not steal other's ideas. I do have my own priorities and I don't want to spend my time on your problems.

I would be happy to see your article on your prediction to know your research methodology.

"My academic research is not related with the asked question." For what, did you pose a question? There are researchers including me, with crores of real-world problems having the methods to solve them. It's ok, you brought in your observation, but why do you expect that others work on your problems. See this "As an atmospheric scientist Can you do anything?". This shows your unprofessional behavior.

Next, why do you want to ask me a personal question? "So my question was just to know what can you do as an atmospheric scientist to support humanbeings. That interprets whats the societal commitment of your attained knowledge." This also shows your unprofessional behavior.

Dear Nishad T M ,

You had better learn the research methodology. For common people, it is ok to state the problem, but for a scientist, there is so much to do (preliminary analysis of the data available, thinking of the best possible solution, etc. through research methodology) to know if it is a do-able problem. What you pointed, according to your explanation, is a problem, but I am not sure if it is do-able one until I do a lot of investigation. But, again, it's not my problem to waste my time on your problem. I do read many of such research problems everyday and it is one just of them for me. You have to get fascinated with your problem, not me or someone else. Don't expect that real researchers will take it up and do from your recommendation.

"What is duty of atmospheric scientist? " Maybe you need to learn more about atmospheric science, but it is vast science having various problems to solve -- from fundamental research to applied research.

We both are not gaining anything; hope you stop here and let me focus on my stuff.

Thanks

Kishore,

I wish to know the existing methods and what are the crucial gaps you mentioned in your following words?

" Though the numerical modeing evolved much, there are crucial gaps and holes to fill to be consistent with the predictions. For example, prediction of the monsoon and the rain it brings to the regions of India."

"As far as I know, you can find the prediction data up-to next 80 years; however, I don't rely much and feel the predictions are accurate."

1.What is the scientific background of your arguments? 2.Why the inaccurate predictions has been used?

3.What are those methods of predictions?

4.Who introduced those numerical models?

5.Why those were accepted though accuracy is not guaranteed?