Policy wanders social reality. Mathematics is our most powerful lens. Yet, most views seem removed from the lens of mathematics. Most opinions are raw transport of empirics. In the consultancy industry, one word captures the transport - experience. People carry bags of experience that they unload across the world mindlessly. Where is mathematics? Is it poorly taught and lost along the way? Do most students waste energy memorising bits of mathematics and fail to grasp frames that they can use across disciplines, and so appreciate peculiarities of social reality? Whatever the reason, reality needs and begs mathematics.
Fred -
I agree. Experience is very important, but only if one pays attention to reality/facts, and learns from that experience. A mathematical framework can assist greatly with this.
Most disturbingly, much of the problem is willfull ignorance. The Economic Research Service (ERS) of the US Department of Agriculture, for example, is currently being scheduled for decimation by the Trump administration. A slash in funding was proposed in 2018, and now the employees have been told they need to move to Kansas to keep their jobs, but haven't been given an exact location so that they could move near the new office location if they even wanted to do so. It is reported that most will not go, which is apparently the administration's goal: the rejection of mathematical, economic and other expertise. The ERS is described by usa.gov as follows: "The Economic Research Service provides the Department of Agriculture and the public economic information and research on food, agriculture, the environment and rural development." See https://www.usa.gov/federal-agencies/economic-research-service.
The dumbing down of decision making is nothing new. The denying of science, mathematics, and technology seems to have been accelerated by recent surges of nationalism around the globe. The 1930s seem to be alive and (un)well.
Another weird example is what happened regarding climate change in North Carolina under a highly gerrymandered state government. It was inconvenient to admit that the coastal land is endangered, so mention of this in official documents was forbidden. No climate change, declared by fiat!
I strongly agree with your concern that policy is not being informed by mathematics (or science) as it should. I worked as a statistician, and official statistics are very important to decision making. However, calls to dumb down results so that they could be understood by a "12-year-old" struck me as counterproductive. Why would a decision maker in a position of authority and using those statistical results have the mind of a 12-year-old?
Thank you - Jim
I second the impression that policy-makers are poor at forming scientific questions, as well as not able to solve them. One experience I can relate is that very many business school and logistics students are never taught enough quantitative operations research in order to contribute to the very urgent policy shifts that we must implement, to battle not only global warming but also the lack of opportunities for collaboration - they are not aware of how to form coalitions, or they are even discouraged to. There are very many ways to tackle parts of the global warming puzzle, but very few are either willing to, or have not the right tools or skills.
Dear James R Knaub ,
I am from Brazil, sadly we are facing a similar problem: we have a Brazilian version of Trump, including what you have mentioned. He also denies science and numbers. Recently, he denied the numbers of INPE (National Institute of Spatial Research), regarding the destruction of Amazonia, seen from satellites; numbers say that it increased about 300% since he started his government. It is quite sad when we see politicians denying numbers, which should be the closest from truth we have!
Best regards,
Jorge,
Recall, mathematics was derived from our enquiry of the physical realities around us. Then, we abstracted from the world and focused on just the mathematics. We derived finer tools. However, those tools of abstraction make most sense when we appreciate the original interaction of mathematics and nature. Often, we call it the geometry. At times, we call it intuition. When we see the big picture combining the geometry and abstractions (of algebra), we can tackle the more complex social realities - and there we find calculus. Regrettably, the study of social reality has been largely condemned to people who dislike mathematics. Why?
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