The mortality rate for common flu is 1%, and the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% - pandemic. But China's industrial index fell, DOW index falls, oil price falls, price of gold rises. Who has more profit from this situation? Which has reserve of gold, no own oil and no own big industriy. and small population or good medical industry.
Yes, the current SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic that causes Covid-19 disease greatly affects economic processes. The high probability of potential recession of the global economy and in many countries in 2020 is currently estimated. Well, in 2020 it is no longer trade wars that will be the main factor in the decline in international trade, international capital flows and other factors of production, international economic cooperation. In 2020, the main factor behind the decline in international trade, international capital flows and other production factors, international economic cooperation, etc. will be the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19. Many current economic data already confirm the thesis that probably now (April 2020) in many countries an economic crisis is beginning, which may after a few months turn into a debt crisis of the state's financial system. If this situation occurs in many countries, then in 2020 the global economy will most likely slow down its growth by several percent. compared to the previous year. In addition, due to the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic, this development, i.e. the development of electronic economy, online and mobile banking, e-commerce etc. has accelerated strongly. The dynamics of digitization processes in various areas of business entities activity is currently accelerating strongly. The changes are so dynamic that at present it is difficult to predict what the scale of the digitization of the economy will be, not only in a few years but even in a year. Another issue is the strong impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic on the situation on financial markets, including the large impact of the new risk category on increasing the amplitude of fluctuations in the valuation of securities on stock exchanges. In connection with the above, the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic may significantly change in the following months both domestic economies, global economy and also certain economic processes.
COVID-19 has unleashed an unprecedented crisis, impacting all segments of the population, all sectors of the economy, and all areas of the world. It has also exposed growing inequalities in our societies, further exacerbating existing disparities within and among countries.
The new United Nations SDG report highlights how the pandemic is slowing progress on the global goals and reversing decades of progress on poverty, healthcare and education, leaving the most vulnerable further behind.
We tried looking at it from the economic impact and consumption behavior shift of users by analyzing the impact of macroeconomic parameters on business and simulate all for COVID19.
We have built multiple ensemble models to analyze the impact of Pandemic (increase in infection rate, mortality rate, spread, peak) on macroeconomic parameters, which in-turn will impact stocks and commodity sales. Hence used simulations then to predict the impact of different businesses and their recovery pattern at national and market levels.
Used techniques like nowcasting and DSGE
refer the paper, should this give you some idea:
Article 3Ps- Path, Pace and Pattern of Recovery from COVID-19 for Di...
The German economy contracted by a record 9.7% in the second quarter, the sharpest decline since Germany began to record quarterly GDP calculations in 1970. The statistics office said it came as consumer spending (10.9% down), company investments (19.6% down) and exports (20.3% down) all collapsed at the height of the pandemic.