Is urban green infrastructure planning a suitable GIS-based model for semi-arid cities? How can we create an urban forest? Can we save the people in our country from climate change with this method?

Introduction: Urbanization has become one of the most dominant global trends, dramatically altering landscapes and environmental systems. More than 55% of the world’s population now resides in urban areas, a number that is expected to rise significantly in the coming decades [1]. In India, urbanization is occurring at an accelerated pace, with projections indicating that the urban population will increase from 31% in 2011 to 40% by 2030 (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2024/01/30/gearing-up-for-indias-rapid-urban-transformation, accessed on 1 January 2025) [2,3]. This rapid expansion has resulted in an increased demand for housing, infrastructure, and services, placing immense pressure on natural resources and environmental systems [3–6]. Urban areas, once rich in natural landscapes and ecosystems, are now being transformed into concrete jungles, which disrupt the ecological balance and affects the well-being of urban residents [7–9]. GI emerges as a sustainable solution to address these environmental challenges. GI integrates natural systems into urban environments, aiming to mitigate the negative impacts of urbanization while providing multiple ecological and social benefits [10–13]. UGI specifically focuses on the strategic incorporation of green spaces, such as parks, green corridors, and urban forests, into the urban fabric [14–17]. These interventions are designed to enhance ecological resilience, improve air quality, and promote overall urban sustainability. However, implementing UGI effectively requires a data-driven approach to identify suitable areas and prioritize interventions based on scientific evidence and local context [18]. The concept of GI comprises a range of scales, from broad national or regional ecological networks to more localized urban green spaces and specific stormwater management projects [19,20]. When applied to urban settings, this concept is referred to as UGI. Urban environments are characterized by intricate interactions between social and ecological systems, which present multifaceted challenges [21–26]. Social issues such as population growth, poverty, inequality, and escalating demands for resources like water, food, land, and energy intersect with environmental problems including climate change, biodiversity loss, deforestation, and pollution. Given the intertwined nature of social and ecological systems, addressing these issues requires an integrated approach that considers their multiple interconnections and dependencies [27]. UGI planning is particularly effective in urban areas as it provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and managing these interactions [28]. UGI offers the potential to create innovative connections between social and ecological systems, leading to more effective management compared to traditional planning methods [29]. UGI planning is guided by fundamental principles such as multifunctionality, integration, connectivity, and social inclusion, alongside supporting principles like multi-scale, multi-objective, and multi-disciplinary approaches [30]. These principles can be adapted and combined in various ways to address specific regional challenges [31]. Moreover, the adaptable nature of UGI components allows for customization to fit different local contexts, spatial scales, and issues, making it a valuable strategy for planning resilient urban areas [32–34]. UGI can significantly enhance urban resilience to climate change by improving water management, increasing permeable surfaces, regulating temperatures, enhancing water quality, boosting building efficiency, and creating new habitats for wildlife [35,36]. As a result, UGI represents a powerful tool for designing urban areas that are both adaptive and resilient in the face of climate change impacts [37,38]. International examples of UGI implementation illustrate its successful application in spatial planning to foster sustainable and resilient cities [39]. UGI reestablishes the connection between urban areas and nature, transforming cities into more resilient systems capable of addressing multiple urban challenges [40]. A key principle of UGI is its ability to deliver a variety of benefits and integrate diverse environmental, social, and economic functions [41]. Many cities promote UGI projects due to their potential to tackle a range of urban issues while providing multiple advantages and functions. However, the placement of these projects is often guided by a single benefit, such as stormwater management, rather than considering the full spectrum of potential benefits [42,43]. This study presents a novel approach by integrating multiple geospatial data layers—such as vegetation indices, LST, socio-economic factors, and topographical features (slope and aspect)—into an MCDA framework for assessing the suitability of UGI in Jaipur. While previous studies have utilized GIS and remote sensing techniques in urban planning, this research goes a step further by combining environmental, social, and spatial data in a unified model to identify priority areas for UGI interventions. The inclusion of both environmental parameters like vegetation health and water body detection and socio-economic factors such as population density and land use, provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing UGI suitability. This methodology is particularly relevant for cities like Jaipur, where rapid urbanization poses significant challenges to environmental sustainability [44]. Jaipur, the capital city of Rajasthan, has experienced significant urbanization in recent decades. As of the 2011 Census, the city’s population was approximately 3.1 million, and it has been growing at an annual rate of 4.5%. By 2030, it is projected to exceed 5 million residents. The spatial transformation of Jaipur is also evident in its built-up area expansion: in 1991, the built-up area was 78.99 km2 (16.9% of the total area); by 2000, it increased to 116.84 km2 (25%), marking an 8.1% change since 1991; in 2011, the built-up area reached 213.15 km2 (45.6%), a 20.6% increase from 2000 and a 28.7% total change since 1991; and by 2022, the built-up area expanded to 325.77 km2 (69.7%), reflecting a 24.09% increase from 2011 and a 52.8% total change since 1991. This rapid urban expansion, coupled with increasing demands for infrastructure, housing, and services, has put immense pressure on the city’s natural resources, including its green spaces and water bodies. The urban sprawl has led to the loss of green cover, reduced air quality, and rising temperatures, exacerbating environmental challenges. These trends highlight the urgent need for strategic urban planning that integrates GI to mitigate the negative effects of urbanization and enhance ecological resilience. The study’s findings provide valuable insights for urban planners, helping them prioritize areas for GI development in response to the city’s growing urban footprint [45,46]. The main objectives of this study are to evaluate the current state of urban green cover in Jaipur using remote sensing data, focusing on vegetation indices such as the NDVI and the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) to measure the extent and health of green spaces. The study integrates environmental parameters—including NDVI to assess vegetation health, MNDWI for water body detection, and LST for thermal characteristics—with socio-economic factors like population density and land-use patterns. Topographical features such as slope and aspect are also incorporated. These layers are combined using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and MCDA framework to develop a comprehensive suitability model for GI. This approach identifies priority areas for UGI interventions, mapping the most suitable locations for GI development. The findings offer critical insights for urban planners and policymakers, providing strategic recommendations for sustainable urban planning in Jaipur and contributing to a broader understanding of geospatial data applications in rapidly urbanizing cities. Conclusions: This study evaluates the feasibility of UGI implementation in the Jaipur district, integrating environmental and spatial dimensions to support sustainable urban planning. The findings highlight that areas with high vegetation cover, moderate climatic conditions, and proximity to water bodies exhibit the highest suitability for UGI interventions. The study demonstrates that integrating multiple environmental variables, such as LST, soil moisture, and LULC, within an MCDA framework provides an effective strategy for identifying priority areas for UGI development. The results indicate that high-suitability regions such as Jamwa Ramgarh, Amer, and Jaipur City should be prioritized for large-scale UGI interventions, including urban forests, riparian corridors, and climate-resilient parks. Conversely, areas with lower suitability, such as Phagi and Chaksu, require adaptive greening strategies, such as the use of drought-tolerant vegetation and artificial water recharge systems. These findings provide a roadmap for targeted GI planning, ensuring that interventions align with the specific environmental constraints and opportunities of each sub-region. From a methodological perspective, the entropy-based weighting approach employed in this study offers an objective mechanism for determining the relative importance of environmental factors, reducing the subjectivity often associated with expert-based weighting methods. This model is scalable and can be adapted to other semi-arid cities experiencing rapid urbanization and climate stress. By integrating high-resolution geospatial datasets and advanced analytical techniques, urban planners can apply this framework to optimize green infrastructure development in diverse urban contexts. The study also underscores key policy implications. In alignment with national policies such as the National Urban Policy Framework (2018) and the National Mission for Sustainable Habitat (NAPCC), these findings reinforce the critical role of GI in enhancing urban resilience. At the global level, this research supports UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11, which promotes sustainable cities and communities. Policymakers should incorporate these insights into city master plans, prioritizing nature-based solutions for climate adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and public well-being. While this study provides a robust framework for UGI suitability assessment, certain limitations remain. The reliance on satellite-based datasets necessitates further validation through ground-based measurements to improve local accuracy. Additionally, incorporating socio-economic variables, such as population density and accessibility to green spaces, would enhance the social inclusivity of GI planning. Future research should explore machine learning-based approaches to refine suitability assessments and expand real-time monitoring capabilities for dynamic UGI planning. This study contributes to a growing body of research on sustainable city development. Its findings and methodological approach offer a replicable framework that can be tailored to the unique environmental and socio-economic characteristics of other urban regions, particularly those in arid and semi-arid climates.