Is there a drought or drought in Iran this year?
As you know, through statistical climatology and according to the statistical methods and forecasting of the synoptic states of the atmosphere in the region, it is possible through the time series of meteorological data and checking the temperature and precipitation in a meteorological station and its downward and upward trends. During 20 to 50 years, he predicted the past, present and future through climatology software. Based on the fact that I wrote my book under the title "Blocking Time Series in Iran Plateau", I have stated that during the process of meteorological data and meteorological sites that show the circulation maps of blocking through Gordes maps, it can be said: According to the graphs on page 18 to 21 of the book, there are graphs from 2016 to 2058, and the graph shows the breakdown of the time series of rainfall at Mashhad station, and because blocking in Iran is of Omega or Rex type and its hours It is about 4000 kilometers long and covers the entire plateau of Iran. So we conclude that this year the amount of precipitation in the eastern areas where most of the blocking prevails will reach up to 200 mm and in the western part of Iran where the blocking wave reaches and less maybe it will reach about 250-300 mm and because of the rotation factor It is mentioned and the high pressure areas are integrated from the side of Sibarb and the Tibetan Plateau and towards the northeast of these blockings which create a dry or cold and icy hole in the winter season and because it has a dynamic state, it is more cold and dry and in the omega state. This blocking is formed. So, according to this process, this year, in 2023 and 2024, the process of drought prevails, and this downward trend prevails in Iran, and we have this downward trend in the upward direction until 2025, and in the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028, there will be rain due to That the blocking pressure is removed from Iran a little and the conditions of the atmospheric river in Iran are the same as in the past few years, when the low-level Scandinavian blocking system is weak and the AO is positive, the Atlantic precipitation system rains over Europe, and the atmospheric surface rains over Europe. But when the Scandinavian blocking system is strong and the AO is negative, it means that the Scandinavian blocking has formed to the bottom of the omega state, and the atmospheric surface that is from the Atlantic Ocean above the Azores region in the north of the equatorial region is moving towards the east with its sinusoidal state. And according to the synoptic maps in Hepto Pascal levels in Gardes or NOAA maps, it shows that, for example, 2 years ago in the Khuzestan region of Iran, especially Pul Dokhtar, heavy rains and floods fell. which shows that there is a coordination between the atmospheric river in the west of Iran and the Siberian blogging in the northeast of Iran, and there is a close connection in terms of synoptic and drought activity in Iran.
Is there a drought or rain in Iran this year?
As you know, through statistical climatology and according to the statistical methods and forecasting of the synoptic conditions of the atmosphere in the region, it is possible through the time series of meteorological data and checking the temperature and rainfall in a weather station and its decrease and decrease. He predicted the upward trends of the past 20 to 50 years, the present and the future through climatology software. Considering that I have written my book under the title "Obstruction Time Series in the Iranian Plateau", I have said that during the process of meteorological data and meteorological sites that show circulation maps of the obstruction through Gourdes maps, it can be said: according to the diagrams on page 18 to 21 of the book, There are graphs from 2016 to 2058 and the graph shows the breakdown of the time series of rainfall at the Mashhad station and because the blockage in Iran is of the Omega or Rex type and that. The clock is about 4000 km long and covers the entire plateau of Iran. Therefore, we conclude that this year, the amount of rainfall in the eastern areas where the most blocking is prevailing will be 200 mm of rain, and in the west of Iran, where the blocking wave is weaker and less likely to reach 250 to 300 mm of rain. Due to the mentioned rotation coefficient and the high pressure areas from the side of the Siberian plateau and the Tibetan plateau to the northeastern side of Iran blocking has been integrated, which creates a dry or cold and icy cavity in the winter season and because of its dynamics. It is colder and drier and in omega mode. This blockage is formed. Therefore, according to this trend, this year, in 2023 and 2024, the trend of drought prevails, and this downward trend prevails in Iran, and until 2025, we have this downward trend in an upward direction, and in the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028, there will be rainfall. The reason is that the blocking pressure is slightly removed from Iran and the atmospheric conditions of the river in Iran are the same as the last few years, that the Scandinavian low-level blocking system is weak. And AO is positive, Atlantic precipitation system over Europe, and atmospheric surface rain over Europe. But when the Scandinavian blocking system is strong and the AO is negative, it means that the Scandinavian blocking system is formed up to the end of the Omega mode and the atmospheric surface that is from the Atlantic above the Azores region in the northern equatorial region. The region is moving towards the east with its sinusoidal shape. And according to the synoptic maps at the hepto-Pascal levels in the GRADS or NOAA maps, it shows that, for example, 2 years ago there was heavy rain and flooding in the Khuzestan region of Iran, especially Pul Dokhtar. which shows that there is coordination between the atmospheric river in the west of Iran and the Siberian blogging in the northeast of Iran, and in terms of synoptic activity and drought in Iran, there is a close relationship.
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