May 18, 2023 - This is a pertinent article:

"WASHINGTON, D.C. —Older adults ages 65 and older now account for 9% of global population, in part because of declining fertility rates. This fact is one of the insights from the 2020 World Population Data Sheet released today by Population Reference Bureau (PRB) in advance of World Population Day (July 11). In 91 countries and territories—nearly 45% of the world’s population—total fertility rates are below replacement level, the average number of children at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next in the absence of migration. And in 21 countries and territories, including several that have suffered devastating loss during the COVID-19 pandemic, people ages 65 and older account for at least 20% of the population.

This trend is most pronounced in Europe and East Asia. In contrast, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and some in Asia continue to experience rapid population growth and high fertility rates. The population of 25 countries is expected to at least double between 2020 and 2050.

Published since 1962, PRB’s annual World Population Data Sheet tracks global population data. This year’s edition provides 24 population indicators for more than 200 countries and territories. Users can also explore key trends through an interactive map.

“As the experience with the COVID-19 pandemic has shown us, population changes such as aging and rapid urbanization are important factors for countries to consider as they plan for future disease outbreaks, long-term health care needs and other developments,” said Jeff Jordan, PRB president and CEO. “PRB’s World Population Data Sheet provides objective data and analysis policymakers need to make these decisions.”

Among the key findings for 2020:

• The world population is projected to reach 9.9 billion by 2050, an increase of more than 25% from 2020.
• The global total fertility rate is 2.3 births per woman, while the replacement level is 2.1 births per woman.
• Western Europe and Southern Europe have the largest shares of people ages 65 years and older (21%), while sub-Saharan Africa has the smallest share (3%). "

Source LINK: https://www.prb.org/news/population-of-older-adults-increasing-globally/

While this shows a problem, surely it demonstrates the increasing low birthrate in many countries. When the older population dies off, many countries will show evidence of falling populations. In Europe, this appears to affect Russia most.

Stanley Wilkin ,

Yes, I agree with you that there is an "increasing low birthrate in many countries," in particular the most affluent nations, including mainland China, where the government is taking measures to encourage newlyweds to plan for more than one child. The decrease in birthrates is directly attributable to the entry into the workplace of more women, especially in countries which have seen fit to strengthen their educational systems, including colleges.

Perhaps China has long-range plans to broaden their current pioneering endeavors to bring affluent Africans into the global financial markets by actually colonizing. Russian women have long been in the work force, so I think you refer to the toll taken in men, typical of wartime.

The warfare situation will affect later. The population in Russia is in decline because of a lowering birth rate, not helped by men leaving the country of course. The decline might, possibly might, be due to decreased health due to drinking and smoking. And perhaps poverty outside of Moscow and St, Petersburg where there are poor sanitary conditions.

Stanley Wilkin ,

If I understand you correctly, you are correct in linking lower birth rate, and concomitantly, higher infant mortality rates, to drinking and smoking. And, certainly, the urban ghetto situation breeds disease and increases the mortality rate. Do you see a connection between the size of a nation and lower birth rate? Both Africa and the Eurasian nation of Russia are two of the largest land masses in the world. Climate may be a factor, since Africa and Russia experience the extremes of solar drought and freezing famine.

Where Russia is concerned, it is also a consequence of the central government's indifference to the populations outside of the Russian ethnic areas. Money mainly goes to St. Petersburg and Moscow, the Russian heartland, and little elsewhere. Health care, roads, general infrastructure is poor. Roads even in towns are often little more than dirt tracks.

On average, Russian men die at around 65. In Portugal, where I live, because of the better food, air and hills (I am always climbing), people live until mid-80s. The vodka intake in Russia is exceptional. I knew some Russians in London who invited me to a meal. I have never seen any group drink so much-enough to embalm their bodies while still alive. And these were professional men. The only other place I have seen this amount of alcohol consumption was in Glasgow, where I lived for a year. They too die relatively early. They too were professional men.

Africa suffers from wide spread lack of development and even though some African countries have oil, usually it is owned by other countries. African countries I lived in, although I've been told Kenya is better, such as Nigeria, Ghana and Benin have, like many Russian urban areas, development in the business/rich areas but hardly any beyond that, but they are often societies based on small commercial operations. The market places are enormous, great fun, incredibly lively but probably affect only local economies.

Nigeria actually should be very rich, but it isn't yet.

The issue really is-the kind of government!

Stanley Wilkin ,

I am very surprised to learn that Russia is underdeveloped outside of the large metropolitan areas. Thanks for sharing your experience having a meal with professional Russian men in London, which included a humorous and witty note ("I have never seen any group drink drink so much--enough to embalm their bodies while still alive"!) yet this statement does not sound hyperbolic but realistic.

China seems to have a very optimistic outlook with regard to Africa, which appears to be a great place for financial market development and for fostering strong ties based on mutual interests, as indicated in this LINK:

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt_665385/2649_665393/202111/t20211126_10453904.html

Parts of Africa has to climb into the affluent areas of the world soon. A great deal of energy there. Problem with these large markets is that little reaches the state. No taxes, limited infrastructure.

Unfortunately wealth is shared in Russia according to ethnicity, with Russians at the top.

No, the Russian drinking is not hyperbole. I had two glasses and I could barely stand up. I quickly made my excuses as between every sentence or snack toasts were made. If I hadn't left, as a mainly non-drinker I could have died!

Where Russia is concerned:

Before the war, Russia was 11th in GDP. Minuscule compared to US and China, making them then equal to Spain. Since the war the GDP has dropped. As I tell people, no matter what Putin claims, Russia is not a superpower. Quite low down in fact.

The wealth, mainly from oil over the past ten years, went to the Russian hinterland of Moscow and St Petersburg. None to the other regions.

Just make a simple experiment:

E.G with China: Count the official data of people living in the different towns. Count the number of official data of living people on the land - just count yourself and you will become a different number...

Than take the official data of grain usage per habitant per year and than take the official data of grain cultivation plus grain import of china and the number you become is nearby the same... and in both times it is NOT 1.4 billion...

You can make the same experiment with india etc...