Hi Jamal,

I recommend you reading Mankoff, J. (2009). Russian foreign policy: The return of great power politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.

Mankoff provides a thoughtful overview of the continuity and change in Russian foreign policy since the end of the Cold War to Putin, and analyzes Russia's interactions with major global considering various theoretical approaches including theory of international relations, classical geopolitical theory, and Russian geopolitical tradition.

This book begins with an introduction entitled “The Guns of August”, addressing South Ossetia conflict, which was simultaneous with Beijing Olympics

On the following 6 chapters, Mankoff argues that Russia’s more assertive behavior since Vladimir Putin became president in 2000, has resulted from both a deep-seated consensus among its elite about Russia's identity and interests as well as a favorable convergence of events; including the persistence of high energy prices and the check on U.S. power resulting from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Hi Jamal,

I recommend you reading Mankoff, J. (2009). Russian foreign policy: The return of great power politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.

Mankoff provides a thoughtful overview of the continuity and change in Russian foreign policy since the end of the Cold War to Putin, and analyzes Russia's interactions with major global considering various theoretical approaches including theory of international relations, classical geopolitical theory, and Russian geopolitical tradition.

This book begins with an introduction entitled “The Guns of August”, addressing South Ossetia conflict, which was simultaneous with Beijing Olympics

On the following 6 chapters, Mankoff argues that Russia’s more assertive behavior since Vladimir Putin became president in 2000, has resulted from both a deep-seated consensus among its elite about Russia's identity and interests as well as a favorable convergence of events; including the persistence of high energy prices and the check on U.S. power resulting from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Hi Alireza,

Thank you for the reference. But today the situation has changed, the price of oil and the ruble fall...

Well, international relations are dynamic and states are self interest. It appears that the US and Cuba ended their hostility after five decades, therefore, a tangible cooperation between Russia and EU is not unreasonable, since EU is depended on Russia's energy supply.

However, if you have a scientific answer you need to evaluate three criteria.

First of all, the policy of two level game. You need to understand the domestic policy as well as foreign policy to draw a perception of Kremlin's policies.

You should know that Russia is an aristocracy and its policies are orchestrated by an oligarchy.

The role of international institutions and competition over energy market cannot be ignored.

Mohammad Mosadegh, Iranian Prime Minister, tried to cease Iran's economy dependence on oil by stopping its export in 1951. I personally would say that's always a good idea!

Nevertheless if you want to do phenomenology or situation analysis first you should evaluate the listed criteria and you can come up with your hypothesis and theories.

For general domestic politics I can recommend reading:

Gourevitch, P. (1978). The second image reversed: the international sources of domestic politics. International Organization, 32, 881-912. doi:10.1017/S002081830003201X

Putnam, R. D. (1988). Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games. International Organization, 42, 427-460. doi:10.1017/S0020818300027697

Foreign policy analysis, cognitive approach and decision making:

Mintz, A., & DeRouen, K. R. (2010). Understanding foreign policy decision making. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Young, M., & Schafer, M. (1998). Is there method in our madness? Ways of assessing cognition in international relations. Mershon International Studies Review.

Russia was highly affected by deeper geopolitical tensions. Russia’s growth weakened notably and rubble dropped heavily particularly in the last months (if rubble continues to fall, it will become very difficult for Russian companies to pay debt that presents one-third the size of Russian economy), etc. Normally, when each country finds itself in a situation like Russia, it turns to International Monetary Fund, which would provide funding, but for the Russian case it seems different… Russia has to pursue drastic actions to prevent economic collapse. It should act carefully and quickly to overcome the current tensions and their harmful effects on the whole economy. Increasing flexibility of exchange rate and putting greater emphasis on interest rates policy may help it to mitigate turbulence or short-run disturbances. It should then try to diversify its economy and lessen its dependence on energy to avoid the detrimental effects of shocks. The need to improve the investment climate should not be overlooked, but this cannot happen if there is a problem of corruption and transparency (Russia has placed 127th out of 177 countries in World Transparency Rankings). Investment in human capital will also improve organizational performance and productivity in Russia and may be a source of institutional strength…

Best regards,