Many times I thought what is the United Nations for? Their people are meeting most of the days and nights and we see political conflicts and wars are getting more and more. I began to discuss an eminent Third World War together with other research gate members. I have great hope that stopping alcohol may lead to resolve many political conflicts spontaneously.
I have never heard that anybody raised this issue in UN. Why?! Do they fear alcohol Mafias? Do they like alcohol or think that alcohol is more useful than harmful?
I think they fear alcohol Mafias, and may be this thier jobes, so they will lose
Of course it is possible. But there is NO reason for doing that !
It is about big money game.
There are many people who use alcohol moderately. The problem is with people who over-drink. Then, it is like a drug.
Drinking alcohol may offer some health benefits, especially for your heart... Read the following article Alcohol: If you drink, keep it moderate!
http://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/nutrition-and-healthy-eating/in-depth/alcohol/art-20044551
Dear Elsabbagh
Your are talking about trade with thousands of billions. It is not easy and I can say impossible to stop this trade. The better action is to increase the awareness of the usefulness and they go with reason and maim ethics mustache and keep him out of the way of success and normal ways. The good action can reduce its use but can't cut it. You can say as cigarettes with all its bad results, still millions all over the world use it.
Regards
Dear Omer,
You ask, "Is it possible to stop alcohol trade worldwide?" America tried to do just that, we call it "Prohibition" this was not worldwide, but nation-wide, none-the-less, it failed.
I believe the only way to stop the abuse of alcohol (and drugs and sex and people) is to change people's behavior, to change their hearts. Ultimately, only God can change the heart of man, but His soldiers of faith are called to share His message of Truth. If there are fewer people using alcohol (or other vices) there will be less availability. If you do away with the desire, there will be fewer providers.
Similarly, we just saw the drug lord Guzman be moved from Mexico to the United States. Mr.Guzman himself said that his removal from the drug providing scene will not stop, nor slow the movement of drugs into America. What America needs is to build strong families, to do that they need to make the real Jesus the center of their lives. People are looking for God, but they substitute Him with drugs. People are told lies about God, they are told He is dead, does not exist. Of course, they are wrong. He is. The problem is our picture of God. Usually our picture of God is too small. God is big. We need to turn to him. Our nations', our world's desire for vices will fade away when we embrace our God.
Dear Omer, you also ask, "I have never heard that anybody raised this issue in UN. Why?!" I think that it has not been raised in the UN because it is not seen as a big deal.
While I am here, Raid, you asked, "What the benift of drinking alcohol????" [sic] and I would like to answer with the words of the honored Apostle Paul who wrote to his protégé Timothy with the following advice, "Stop drinking only water, and use a little wine because of your stomach and your frequent illnesses." (1 Timothy 5:23) Wine has a medicinal effect.
Respectfully yours, Steve Herrmann
Good for you, Leonid. It's a bit like asking whether global trade of spaghetti, or coffee, should be stopped. Anything can be abused.
Alcohol includes, let's say, that bottle of Montepulciano, or Cabernet Sauvignon, correct? Why should that be stopped? The vast majority of people, throughout human history, have been able to drink such beverages in moderation, to no ill effect. On the contrary, red wine is a good antioxidant.
There is no good reason for the UN, or other international body, to become the instrument of extremists.
ON THE OTHER HAND, had you asked about a product with really no redeeming social value, such as cigarettes, I might have answered differently. That might be more a matter of pragmatism.
Yes I agree with you Albert. If action should be taken against either alcohol or nicotine -- there is no question in my mind. Nicotine is very destructive with no positive value. Some might call nicotine "calming" - I say BALONEY! It is only destructive. Alcohol does not fit that bill. It does have some redeeming value. Only when abused is it terribly destructive.
Yes, if Governments mind they can bring total prohibition on Alcohol consumption. But this is not happening because , the sale of Alcohol would yield huge money / revenue/ income to the government exchequer!!!
Dear Colleagues
Do you think that stopping the alcohols trade is a solution? I believe it is not. I am muslim and I don't come near alcohol, but I think we must not stop this trade. However, we must organize it. From my experience, I found many alcoholic when they didn't find their demand they went to drugs and this more dangerous from alcohol on the health and the society. Although drugs are prohibited all over the world, can anyone say that his country is clean from drugs. If we look to the issue from point view of the most damage and the least harmful, I think alcohol comes in the second list.
Regards
Any ban always increases interest in the "forbidden fruit" (see example in Buble). It is necessary to raise understanding of the values of life and all the "fruit" from early childhood.
I am very happy to get a variety of responses which are uncovering people attitudes in different countries. But of course I disagree that it is a question from an extremist. I am an expert doctor. Otherwise US government should be described as extremists when they tried to do the same and failed.
Talking about alcohol logically includes other harmful things like cigarettes and drugs. The point is our frustration with UN and peace problems, is pushing us to find more useful outlets. My general impression from many answers would be the great difficulty of strong psychological attachment and love of many people to alcohol. I feel that this colors the answers with a subjective element.
This is my first response to the respected answers, and I would be happy to continue the debate and my comments on the other valuable opinions mentioned above.
Best regards,
Dear Omer! It is suggested for you as a doctor. In the body, each person produces about a shot of ethanol per day. Ethanol is an energy source. Ethanol is the cause of many others, as people know. For this reason a person has a need for additional energy and related feelings.
Dear Ljumobir,
Your objectiveness is very attractive. " It is a big money game". Money and power is the main reason of world conflicts, unfairness and problems. The great portion of world banking money are going to trades of weapons, drugs, sex and alcohol. As a contrast we see many many people searching for a piece of bread in garbage. Everybody all over the world knows this simple fact. How do you feel about this fact?
Regards,
Dear Valdimir,
You are right. Ethanol is a a metabolic pathway. But I would be wrong if I did not ask about habits like cigarettes and alcohol. Health problems are of course correlated with amount of consumption and duration. Many alcoholics suffer liver cirrhosis, stomach problems, pancreatitis and pancreatic cancers as well as disabling CNS disorders and many other problems. I hope nothing will happen to you as a moderate consumer and I hope nothing will happen to any other one. The problem is that many moderators change to heavy drinkers.
My respect,
@Omer before going to ban alcohol worldwide first we have to check the uses of alcohol. It is not just a liquor (if consume beyond limits obviously you suffer a lot). Liquor mafia are different. Govt.s have to take ordinances to stop illegal use.
Alcohol has many uses. It is highly used industrial solvent in many occasions. What Jayaram mentioned also correct.
Alcohol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol
THE USE. OF ALCOHOL IN MEDIGINE.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2414978/pdf/brmedj06688-0024.pdf
Alcohol use and safe drinking
https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/001944.htm
Uses of Alcohol
http://www.newhealthguide.org/Uses-Of-Alcohol.html
USES OF ALCOHOLS
http://www.chemguide.co.uk/organicprops/alcohols/uses.html
7 Health Benefits Of Drinking Alcohol
http://www.medicaldaily.com/7-health-benefits-drinking-alcohol-247552
17 Uses For Alcohol (Besides Drinking It)
http://www.rd.com/food/recipes-cooking/alcohol-uses/
Dear Colleagues,
It is not possible to stop alcohol trade worldwide?
Of course Jetty. I am not forbidding alcohol as an antiseptic as an example. My question is about drinking alcohol. Statistics are telling that many moderate drinkers change later on to heavy drinking. I do not think that you doubt the strong relation between alcohol and many illnesses as well as many crimes.
Dear Leonid,
I like your courage when you say it is very possible to do it.
US government tried it before and failed.
The need for it or no need is our current varying discussions.
Dear Steve,
We know each other from God's thread. I believe as a moslem that Christianity and Islam are coming from a common origin. You are true as humanity is currently in big need of sky values.
Dear Miqdam,
I am happy you never touched alcohol. I agree with you that it is very very difficult, but why UN never ever thought to discuss it !!!
Dear all
im now about 47 years and im never touched alcohol in all my life.
Regards
Is it possible to stop alcohol trade worldwide?
Think is not possible to stop alcohol trade worldwide because there is still demand for alcohol as different people consume alcohol for different purposes. If there are some factors causing no demand for alcohol then its trade can be stopped - when demand stops, its supply & trade ends.
Dear Omer:
I can not disagree in that - that I am a very Brave Man.
However by saying "of course it is possible" - actually I meant that YES - it is principally possible to ban production of ANYTHING - irrespectively of how important for survival and progress of human race it is.
Best Regards, Leonid
Is it possible to stop alcohol trade worldwide?
I do not drink. And against its use, although it is aware that there are traditions, 100 -150 ml of wine a person is unlikely to inflict great harm if rarely drink alcohol.
As a toxicologist and psychiatrist would say that it is impossible to ban alcohol in Russia. IMPOSSIBLE. In other countries, do not drink less than in Russia. And it is impossible to ban alcohol. In my articles (and not only mine) shows the negative effects of alcohol on all organs.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Забродский,_Павел_Францевич
***
"Zabrodskii Pavel_Frantsevich - co-founder of the NGO "International Academy of sobriety" , the doctor of the highest category toxicologist, a psychiatrist.".
At the time of Gorbachev - sale of alcohol has been sharply limited to 2 bottles of vodka in a month per person. People got in a queue for vodka at 6 a.m.
The line for vodka was huge. My daughter at that time was about 1 y.o.
and every time arose a dispute - whether to give vodka taking into account her.
In those days vodka became - the strongest and most valuable currency. And when entering the multi-storey house - the 1st thing one felt was a terrible smell of raw vodka. WHY Vodka ? -- Common Men have no Hope...
Difficult to stop trade of, lets say, wine that supports the work of many people worldwide.
Small wine consumption appears to be beneficial to stomach processes, but violence comes from excessive use of wine and other alcohol products locally, but not globally. I would think that the sale of weapons is more harmful to peace on earth than alcohol and UN has done little so far to curtail the sale of weapons.
Of course Omar as long as people are in limit there is no harm. People should not become addict to anything. This all depends on the personality how they control their minds. Lets hope for the best.
Trade associations want to stop off-trade selling of alcohol to minors!
The European Commission estimates that alcohol-related harm costs the EU €150 billion per year. Each year 120,000 European citizens die due to alcohol misuse, which can be linked to 60 different diseases.
“We know minors can access alcohol in shops in both on- and off-trade and so this is an important area of work for us, to cut off that access,” said Paul Skehan, the director general of SpiritsEurope, which represents the spirits and liqueur industry at EU level...
https://www.euractiv.com/section/health-consumers/news/trade-associations-want-stop-off-trade-selling-of-alcohol-to-minors/
Han Ping added a very important short comment. I noticed this style of him in other debates. "If there are some factors causing no demand for alcohol then its trade can be stopped - when demand stops, its supply & trade ends."
Opinion of Dr. Zabrodiskii as a psychiatrist and toxicologist is authoritative and very important.
Also The European commission report mentioned by Ljubomir is putting lights on alcohol problems.
The link between alcohol trade and World War Three is not well presented. Several of the worst wars in recent times have occurred among countries that have no alcohol trade. An argument can be made that a little alcohol in moderation, not while driving machinery, but with the tolerance that moderation brings could have prevented much of the blood shed.
Lack of moderation leads to war.
You are right Jerry. Lack of moderation (whether with alcohol or without) leads to war. Also politics and Third World War is much more complicated. How do you feel about UN role in our current turmoils?
Keeping consuming alcohol in moderation is difficult. Many succumb at some point and statistics are showing that many moderators change to heavy drinkers. That is why we see patients with alcohol related diseases in hospitals and clinics (Take a look at European commission report above). Why is it difficult to agree that alcohol is a bad habit?! I hope nothing will happen to anybody who is moderate.
My best regards and thanks for your sharing.
A few years ago I did a monograph for review of the literature, generalized own research results (articles and monographs in the list of my scientific publications in the RG). Alcohol, even in small doses, a moderate and relatively frequent use - a real immunosuppressant. Are affected to varying degrees, all the cells of immunity system. Chronic use of alcohol formed secondary immunodeficiency.
Thank you too much Dr. Zabrodskii for this important monograph.
I think also discussing the deceiving concept of "moderation" in alcohol context in depth would be useful. Alcohol traders in the past used to call alcohol "water of life" and people believed them. This term should not hold true anymore.
Studying the psychology of this false moderation can help different debaters to come to an agreement taking the debate to a useful track.
If we will think in stopping alcohol trade we must think in useful and safe alternatives to it for the sake of the millions of people who used it. Till today there is no alternative to alcohol that convince alcoholic people to stop using it.
regards
Taking alcohol is a human tendency as most of people take it irrespective to its effects on health and mind. Therefore it seems very hard, if not impossible to ban on alcohols. Problems of liquor mafia, imposition of laws, are secondary. In Bihar, a poor state in India, it was imposed, the politics was centred on the same.
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/Bihar%E2%80%99s-draconian-prohibition-law/article14551111.ece
Alcohol is an addiction & its roots have gone right from the level income group into the highest income group for which they considered themselves as a prestige & high level of moral course. It a fact that low income group & so to say if poor people of every society take recourse to alcoholic drinks of a very lower qualities which is harmful to their health & by taking such drink they are creating the problem of family & children by their rude behavior & in certain cases there are also creating debts with an high level of interest creating a further problems of family .
Higher income group whether they are business magnet ,professional personnel of high level dignity & social & political personnel to make the prestige for entertained a political leaders of foreign country for their dignity & comforts .
With this we have observed that the menace of alcohol drugs have its root in the entire world phenomena .I may be wrong but during my childhood i have given a thought for this alcohol drink that With the western countries due to their several climate cold situation they used to take recourse to alcohol in a pack to get relief from cold & also may feel comfortable while taking their dinner in the evening time.
Besides when they are meeting with friends in the family they used to take drinks in their program but to me at that time these were not nuisance .
Subsequent with the course of scientific & technological development with the growth of business community covering various part of the country to meet the expansion & change the line of action , during this opportunity these has become practice of business decency & manner & this alcoholic drug have become world wide .
With the practice & addition of the alcoholic drugs every where prevent in the various part of the countries for which they are certain countries which are not accepting alcohol drink for every member due to their religious sentiment & behavior code. Due to this certain individual who have been in the habit of taking alcohol drinks ,they are doing with the play of hide & seek game .
Due to this government of various countries have placed a restriction & pass a law for the person taking drinks are liable for criminal proceeding because of the international cooperative relation with the countries the respective government have started a practice of giving a permit for limited line of alcoholic drinks .
With all the due care illegal practices have also started in various part of countries & as such alcoholic drinks become the menace for every part of society .
This is my personal opinion
Some facts about alcohol industry! Fine resource is attached.
Global expansion
Another force driving the consolidation of the alcohol industry is globalisation: the world’s leading producers have increasingly focused their efforts on selling their products to fast growing developing countries. As described previously, this has partly been achieved by acquiring local producers, but it has also been facilitated by increased marketing, cheaper distribution costs and lowered trade barriers...
Big money games has no borders!
1.
We can not "to resolve many political conflicts",but I agree with Albert : No extremism ... the Big industry and Big many can facilitate some problems .. For exemple, it is very important the electricity in Africa ...
2
The alcool may be a" limiting product" as milk, honey, fish & al. other (artificial or natural) allergic products for some peoples ...
The summary and opinion of Rohit is honest, simple and very well describing the alcohol problem.
Concentrating on industry is not enough and people attitudes, wills and values are very important. US government spent lot of money to stop alcohol and failed. We have to stop the demand for alcohol to be able to stop the supply as Hang Ping explained.
I remain to be persuaded of the chain of causation between the trade in (or consumption of) alcohol and future major wars.
Dear Quintin,
It is a provocative kind of question which aims to stimulate group discussions which can help to see different perspectives of our current world problems. After World War Two we have been covered under UN umbrella which has not proved later on to be a real cover.
We agreed above that a war between two countries happens due to lack of moderation. This imbalance can happen with alcohol or without alcohol, as no doubt that alcohol can play with human mind. If politics have become fearful up to discussing a great possibility of an impending Third World War, it deserves to look at all factors. Current political conflicts are many times very illogical as if alcohol is playing with minds of opponents.
My respect and my best wishes for a peaceful and better world full of humanity and cooperation. The only way to achieve this is us agreeing on human values.
Omer
All you would do is hand the trade to the kind of ruthless criminals who currently deal in other narcotics. See the TV drama Boardwalk Empire, set in Prohibition-era America, and you'll see more or less what would happen, on a far grander scale.
Dea all the
I think that both narcotics ,cigarettes and alcohol are not good for the helth and no need for all .
Sugar is very bad for your health. So are many other things. The biggest health problem in, eg the UK and US is not booze, but obesity - so let's ban doughnuts, cream, and meat! All of these harmful substances need to be monitored and steps taken to reduce their intake. But 'ban it ban it ban it' is not a helpful response. Well-resourced health and education services are.
Acetaldehyde (toxic product of ethanol biotransformation) increases the release of catecholamines adrenergic nerve endings, which increase the tone of vascular resistance (muscular type arteries, arterioles) cause tachycardia, increased myocardial and other tissues of oxygen. It has been shown that acetaldehyde is able to condense some of catecholamines, in particular dopamine, to form tetrahydroisoquinolines that can cause hallucinations and induce abstinence.
After severe acute poisoning often arise (especially alcoholic), infectious diseases and the complications that may lead to death. In tanatogenesis important role can play a decline in the immune system.
Winston Churchill once said 'I have taken more out of alcohol than alcohol has taken out of me'. Whether this is objectively true in the case of Mr. Churchill remains moot, but there are scores of artists that have fueled their creative juices with alcohol - for the greater benefit and good of society, and sometimes at a considerable cost to themselves. I do not see why this should be stopped?
Beside - the key to all is moderation. And why should some external authority teach anyone how to control their urges and manage their own lives, and thereby bereave them of the ability to make decisions like the grown-ups they are, or should learn to become? Are we in the business of the all-overseeing nanny state, preventing free people from experiencing the consequences of the free choices they make in their lives?
I am extremely leery of any authority who presumes to think on behalf of people, and tell them how to lead their lives, which opens the door to all kinds of abuses. And yes, I think society would have been poorer without the Serge Gainsbourgs and the Verlaines and the many other bohemian artists who have enriched our lives, and "lifted human life a little above the level of farce, and given it some of the grace of tragedy." Let's stop telling folks what they should do, and let's start respecting them instead, with all their magnificent flaws, their tragedies - in short, their learning experiences while here upon Earth.
I understand the leeriness of having the governing authorities think for us, but if we run in the other direction we end up with anarchy. We have law that form us. We accept them. These laws are quite literally "telling us how to live". I agree that the state cannot be the conscience of the people, but at some level we need to be. The question is what level is healthy? -- in both directions!
no it is not possible because this trade represent more money for people and enjoy to for other s .
Dear all
Alcohols can be made in home by very simple distillation equipment. So, if you stopped this trade by stopping its factory that's means you will encourage the home made alcohol. This conditions has a very bad consequences as some may make poisonous material and cell it in secret as an alcohol. Form my point view, hold on to this trade with strict limitations supported by better laws is better from leaving the industry for those sundry
Regards
Hello H Chris,
Your response is very important.
I am looking like you in hating any authority over my thinking or my doing. But of course authority many times is a need and an obligation in many situations, e.g, traffic system.
Regarding alcohol, cigarettes, or drugs: the main thing needed to be stopped are people attitudes, wills, and convincing so that demand can be decreased. In a later stage laws should have a role to consolidate the new healthy values.
The examples you have mentioned about Churchill, artists or other creators shows clearly that alcohol has benefits. I am not denying this. The answer of balance between benefits and harms should not necessary be identical to Churchill point of view. He said that "I took from alcohol more than what alcohol took from me". Anyhow Churchill recognized clearly the harms of alcohol which many debaters denied under the false cover of moderation. I am suggesting you to reread the several responses of Dr. Zabrodskii and Mr. Ljubomir as they are giving clear evidences of alcohol harms. Also Mr. Rohit response is very honest, simple and explains clearly the alcohol problem.
Regards,
Mr. Steve Mcgiffen,
Forgive me, but I completely disagree with the similarity you have been used. Overuse of alcohol is not similar to overuse of doughnuts, cream, and meat. You can not pass alcohol based on the above comparison.
Best regards,
I agree with @ Omer Elsabbagh, that system is required in many of cases: "But of course authority many times is a need and an obligation in many situations, e.g, traffic system".
I do agree with @ H Chris Ransford, that personal decisions be there for choice of their likes in their life. However, it also to be noted that personal decisions be in harmony with the society and other fellows. Administrations should not ban use of alcohol, but they can demotivate the use of alcohol (and it is also in practice), and try to advertise about the harms of alcohol.
The medical technology and integrated support groups, counseling made effective quitting alcohol is easier than ever. If you feel that too much to drink alcoholic beverages, there are many benefits to boot them; and prevent exposure to strokes stroke, weight loss, and avoid Muffler (effects left by excessive drinking of alcohol), and reduce the risk of exposure to diseases of the liver, but only a few benefits, along improve your health in general. If you would like to quit drinking alcohol, here are some tips and strategies that Staidk back to the road to stay away from alcohol.
1. Talk to your doctor. If you choose to begin the road to recovery by yourself, keep in mind that alcohol withdrawal of the body can be fatal, if began to suffer withdrawal symptoms severe (bouts of panic, severe tension, shivering, and a rapid heartbeat) "should seek medical help immediately." . May deteriorate the situation for up to delirium tremens, which may be fatal if left it untreated.
3. Change your attitude and your behavior toward quitting drinking alcohol. Remember that you do not give up a good friend, but you finally rid yourself of an enemy of yours. Change your attitude until treatment becomes easier. Valencef the good of your personality you want you to take off, but half the selfish wants you to remain as you are.
3. Try to set a date to quit, be ambitious but realistic. If you go overboard, drinking alcohol, must act to reduce the quantities that Tanisseha gradually to avoid withdrawal symptoms (in this case is that the better you can help your doctor determine the date of take-off)
4. Get rid of all the alcohol bottles in your home.
5. Express your feelings without restrictions.
6. Not coexist with people or in situations where you'll find yourself probably go back to drinking alcohol.
Dear colleague
I agree with the answers and explanations above.
Thank you
Alcohol consumption has a long history; thus, the issue is not to stop the trade (I don't think that such will be possible in this current world), but to have effective control of what is produced and consumed. Alcohol companies all over the world have established lobbyists in different political settings, and they also directly/indirectly fund governments. Governments in turn fund UN. This complicated relationships is one of the factors that will not allow the trade in alcohol to be checked.
This is an important issue. Reducing Underage Drinking: A Collective Responsibility.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK37605/
In India, it was banned for some years in some states, later on revoke the ban. Still today, in one state in our country still continuing the ban. public support and cooperation is very important factor, otherwise it is not possible to implement such a huge programmes.
I am very thankful to Mr. Arben for the above few lines which led the discussion to an important meaning, I never thought of it so when I posed my question. The light of the sun is dominating now my thread because of all contributions clarifying the alcohol problems.
Dear Quintin,
I was expecting a feedback on my answer to your question to me. Can we now reverse our roles, and I am willing to take my turn to ask:
Is a Third World War really started or impending as people are talking?
If yes, what can be done to prevent the disaster?
Dear Goll Srinivasarao,
I feel that your opinion is an echo of another opinion. I did not get the point. Anyway I am thankful to both of you as you described me as an extremist and not as a terrorist. The first will lead me to some form of ideological reformation which is no problem. But the second will lead me to Guantanamo or to be killed before my foot steps inside my cell.
NO PROBLEM ALSO. No more Third World War phobia then.
I support @ Arben J Salihu, that alcohol is a great business. Actually it is also business for governments who ignore human health due to income by such methods.
Government people say how they will manage without taxes on alcohol, but it is not right approach. Taxes can be collected by other sources, if the citizens are healthy - physically and mentally.
You can modify the Mark Twain quote on smoking: "It is easy to stop the sale of alcohol throughout the world. I myself have tried thousands of times to do it. "
Hi Omer,
Regarding your question, the simple answer is that we do not know. Of course, there are areas that we are concerned about: the DPRK, the Middle East (always), the South China Sea only needs a mishap, and of course, the Crimea. But apart from these concerns, we do not know where the next 'Poland' (or 'Belgium') will be.
In addition to not knowing where, we do not know what the nature of the next major war will be. Will it turn out to be a world war? How will it build up - what will the casus belli be? Who will ally themselves with whom? Once again, we can speculate, but in the absence of a unified theory on the origins of organised violent conflict, it will remain only that.
So let say there is a war between two major (nuclear) powers. It is reasonably trivial to build a scenario to model that as a thought experiment, but, as was found in a nearly two decades of US Navy war games (during the Cold War), it is devilishly difficult to model the same for a nuclear exchange. There is simply no precedent, and regardless of our training and knowledge, we all remain dilettantes until the second one drops.
So will there be a war? I get asked that often - think back on when Turkey downed a Russian F/GA. There were a lot of nervous people back then, but in spite of an opportunity arising, the 'disagreement' never escalated beyond the diplomatic discourse. In fact, following the coup in Turkey, they and Russia appear to have mended the fences. So even when an opportunity presents itself, a casus belli is only truly one when the injured party treats it as such.
Naturally, a sensibility should prevail in our 'forecasts': there are a lot of weapons pointing at a lot of people, and statistically, it is unlikely that Peace will forever descend upon humankind. There are bound to be disagreements, and those moments may still prove to be tense. Think for instance of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Exercise Able Archer, and others. Some of these moments may even result in shooting (American and Soviet pilots faced off during the Korean War). And who knows? Egos may prove decisive on whether that spills over into something greater, or not.
So how likely is a major war in 2017? The need for sensationalism aside, I'd estimate not very likely. I expected something in the South China Sea before last Christmas, but I was wrong. I was also wrong about Trump and Brexit, so right now, my track record is dismal. But one thing I am absolutely adamant about: if something should kick off, it'll not be due to alcohol trade or consumption.
Thank you too much Quintin for your very important feedback as a specialist. You have all the right to be adamant about role of alcohol drinking as a contributing factor in decision making which might lead to initiate a war. This is also comforting to a simple man like me who do not know the precautions war decision makers are taking. I tried to explain in my first answer that my question was organized to provoke relevant answers and disagreements. I have got a lot of excellent responses in both directions which were very useful. Also the question design raised implicated disagreements about current UN roles.
But I think that you and many others can agree with me that most international money are spent on weapons, drugs, alcohol and sex. This led to poverty which is a fertile ground for terrorism as well as psychopathic personalties development. This have led to a lot of political problems. Psychologists and political scholars have become much concerned about studying our leaders psychological stability and sanity. In that sense alcohol trade and consumption is a a contributing factor in world instability.
I found that most important in your professional answer was your mentioning of the hottest spots on world map. I have been very attentive when you put "(always)" after the Middle East. I got an impression that you believe that if a major war starts it would be most probably where I am living.
The very good point was that it is not expected on 2017.
My best regards and my thanks again for your good answer about a very difficult question.
In experimental studies, and in the analysis of the clinical data shows that acute, moderate and chronic excessive intake of ethanol results in various disorders of the immune system - an inhibition of lymphocyte proliferation, a change in representation antitena antigen presenting cells, disruption of the function of various subpopulations of T-lymphocytes, reduced the activity of B-cells, which reduces the body's defense against microbial pathogens.
Hi Omer,.
Thank you for your kind words, and I agree that those crimes, (and others), are significant social problems. More can (and should) be done to tackle these, and their effects.
Returning to the topic of war origins, King’s College, London (War Studies Department) hold an annual war simulation – usually a three day event (this year, it’ll be held from 24 to 26 Feb). The topic for this year is the ongoing tension in the Kashmir region between Pakistan and India (both countries being members of the Nuclear Club). You can find us on social media (King’s College Crisis Team). This is critical work by serious academics in an ongoing quest for peace – no matter where on the globe.
If you desire Peace, understand War.
Quintin
The end of your remark Qunitin is well written and I liked it too much. I will follow the simulation to understand more the process of decision making in a major war.
If you are kind enough answer my last curious question:
Is a nuclear Third World War would be the end of life on earth or not?
Thanks in advance.
1919-1933
Destroying booze
I hope photos would be more convincing than words.
My best regards and wishes
Trump and alcohol!
Just like the 43rd President of the United States, George W. Bush, Donald Trump does not drink alcohol. But, unlike President Bush, Trump never drank alcohol. Obviously, his abstinence is not because he was once an alcoholic, nor is the reason moral or religious, as is so often the case...
Rather, sadly and tragically, Donald Trump does not drink alcohol because he lost his dear brother, and his father’s namesake, to alcoholism.
Like many whose lives have been touched by the curse of alcoholism, Trump views it as an addiction that destroys not just the victim, but the families as well. He has gone on record to state, “I’ve never understood why people don’t go after the alcohol companies like they did the tobacco companies. Alcohol is a much worse problem than cigarettes.”...
Dear @Omer, could this man do something to minimize worldwide alcohol trade? I doubt!
http://conservativeamerica-online.com/3-donald-trump-does-not-drink-alcohol/
Dear Omer,
Thank you, but I cannot take credit for that quote. It is in fact a perversion of the original Latin quote (si vis pacem, para bellum by Vegetius), attributed to Sir Basil Liddell Hart.
Regarding your question on the totality of a nuclear exchange, the response needs to be measured. One missing piece of the puzzle is whether such an exchange will be ‘total’ – what is called a global thermonuclear exchange – when all belligerents expend all their nuclear means in the shortest timeframe possible, or whether such a conflict will be of a utilitarian nature – called limited nuclear exchange – so more of a tit-for-tat exchange. Another missing piece of the puzzle is whether such an exchange will have a counter-value nature (a focus on targeting population centres), or a counter-force nature (city avoidance, with a targeting preference of armies, navies, military installations). The current strategic thinking is that such an exchange, should it ever be required, should be of a limited nature, with city avoidance.
In addition to the above, nuclear weapons have undergone significant developments since the first shot in 1945. We see far smaller arsenals today than at the height of the Cold War. Such arsenals also now generally consist of far smaller yield warheads than the doomsday devices of the 1960s (e.g. the Tsar Bomba device, tested by the USSR in 1961). With an exponential improvement in accuracy and reliability, nuclear warheads today, are far smaller – and there are far less of them.
One of the primary thinkers on nuclear conflict, an American strategist by the name of Herman Kahn, argued at the pinnacle of the Cold War, that the effects of even a global thermonuclear war are highly overstated (see his publication titled: On Thermonuclear War). Drawing on scientific outputs, as opposed to the emotive and sensationalist arguments of others, Kahn proposed that a huge number of folk would die in such an exchange (he anticipated for instance that the USA would suffer up to 33% casualties), and the after-effects of such an exchange would render life tough for the survivors. However, there would be survivors (even in that era of more and greater-yield devices, with a focus on global thermonuclear exchange of a counter-value nature), and Life would continue.
Kahn’s propositions are corroborated by two observations – the return of wildlife to the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone suggests that we still do not understand the viability and prospects of complex life-forms in highly irradiated environments fully. The second observation is that, even though we have thus far managed to avoid any form of nuclear exchange with others, we have done a fantastic job of nuking ourselves. One of the most nuked places on earth is just outside Las Vegas in the Nevada desert. The Americans have detonated more than 1,000 devices of various types and sizes here – some atmospheric, some at ground level, and some subterranean. That number represents around 10% of the current Russian arsenal, concentrated at a single location. The Soviets had done something similar at a place called Semipalatinsk. Yet, at Semipalatinsk, amongst all the increased instances of cancers, premature deaths, and still-births, Life goes on, (long after the thrill of living is gone, to quote John Mellencamp).
Where does that leave us? This is not to suggest that a nuclear exchange of any sort is a viable strategy – it is not. Period! Yet as a measured, clinical response to your question on the termination of all life forms on this planet, the answer is simply this: no.
Quintin
I am not sure, but I HAVE THE SAME OPINION LIKE YOU @ LJUBOMIR that it is very unlikely. I see him like Rome Caesar Niron. I do not see stopping alcohol is the only virtue that will lead people to paradise and the world to peace. To ban alcohol; the first step would be people agreement that alcohol is a bad habit and alcohol moderation is a false concept. Dr. Zabrodiskii have explained it very nice on several contributions. Also people used to alcohol have to have strong wills like that of Steve Mcgiffen.
We should not have hope in Trump even if he is a non-alcoholic, but naturally we should think of UN in spite of our frustrations. UN is our representative when nations want to fight poverty, ignorance, drugs, alcohol, political conflicts and all similar international issues. We need to know in depth why UN fails and how to improve it.
Thanks Kolita. It is difficult for an old man like me. I am passing the job to you.
Regards,
Alcohol industry subverting science to prevent greater regulation, study finds!
Researchers say industry’s lobbying of politicians and involvement in policy discussions obstructing health outcomes...
The alcohol industry makes claims to governments that contradict and obfuscate science in an attempt to influence marketing regulations and prevent more stringent controls on products...
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/01/alcohol-industry-subverting-science-to-prevent-greater-regulation-study-finds
Very important Ljubmoir as we used to get from you.
The question arises how to protect scientific facts and universities.
@ Kolita: I agree with you that we should say our word and we should hope a possible change.
Enzyme activity aldehyde dehydrogenase (metebolizm acetaldehyde produced from ethanol to water and carbon dioxide) are different in different nations and peoples (nationalities). Low activity of this enzyme is directly related to the use of alcohol by different peoples. The Japanese population, 40% of the enzyme activity is low. Probably the low activity atsetaldegidrogenazy many "eastern" peoples associated ban on the use of alcohol in many countries.
For northern peoples (Chukchi, Aleuts, and others), alcohol (ethanol) can be called "ethnic weapons" - abstinence syndrome developing after a single use of ethanol, alcohol formation occurs very quickly (this is due to the activity alcohol dehydrogenase and aldehyde dehydrogenase , features of the biotransformation of ethanol).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_metabolism
Dear Quintin,
I could not find a war department on researchgate.
I found it on Facebook and it is a closed community. I sent a request to join. My photo is there and my arabic name is written: عمر الصباغ
Thanks,
Omer
I think alcohol trade never stops though it's consumption effects human beings
Few of you seem to realize, this was attempted in the United States. It was called Prohibition. It failed miserably. Dangerous gangs began running "speak easy" bars. Speed boats ran across the Great Lakes to Canada and brought alcohol back to the USA. Prohibition caused more problems than it solved.
If there is a market for something, people will continue to find it, make it, get it.
The only way to stop this, and far worse is the illegal drug trade, is to change the hearts of people. If the desire stops, the business -- uh! -- dries up! People need to connect with God. People need to hang onto their families. Get the basics of society in order and MANY other problems will vanish.
We could likely even keep alcohol for moderate drinking if people get their lives straight.
Dear Dr Ravipati
I agree with Dr Raid, you have summarized the whole issue and you are correct.
Regards
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