In the context of the above considerations, the following question is also current:

What will be the consequences of lifting the block tariffs set up by the largest national economies in the world?

Please reply

I invite you to the discussion

Thank you very much

Best wishes

The same games are constantly repeated.

There is a positive effect of the expectation that the trade agreement in the markets will be signed shortly.

Then, in an instant, the talks break up with the idea that the negotiations are made and the stock exchanges fall, oil prices also decline. exchange rates are adversely affected. This economic negative weather leads to big problems in small scale countries.

Hi Dariusz

Interesting topic...at the moment Kosovo has introduce 100% tariffs from goods imported from Serbia to Kosovo.

Paul: In my opinion, a trade war can have a much more negative effect on a smaller nation if the economy is dependent on only one or two goods/services.

In other words, a more diverse economy can survive a trade war better.

Greetings Dariusz. I guess the most obvious link is that trade wars between big rival economies affect smaller economies if these smaller economies are the providers of essential inputs (raw materials and labor) for the products being penalized (disputed). The uncertainty surrounding the negotiations and trade wars adds to the injury as the smaller economies are economically more vulnerable to trade risks.

It depends on the region (location). If country's extended territory is covered or surrounded by full of large and high-security countries, looks like do not have much trouble. For example, Scandinavian countries and some small island countries.

Country is severely affected if it is located in an area where both economic and real wars continue.

I think that the countries that export raw materials will be the most affected, while the countries that export a variety of products, the impact is less, especially industrial products.

Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG,

The above discussion inspired me to formulate the following question:

Impact of protectionist restrictions on international trade on global economic development.

The above discussion inspired me to formulate the following question:

What is the impact of protectionist restrictions on international trade on global economic development?

On the basis of the above considerations and conclusions from the discussion on interesting issues discussed, I formulated the following thesis that the current protectionist practices of restricting international trade can significantly affect the rate of global growth and economic development. This impact may lead to a significant decline in economic growth over a period of several quarters, several years or for a longer period, i.e. in line with the period of application of certain protectionist practices of restricting international trade, e.g. by introducing additional barrier duties limiting imports. Such protectionist practices of restricting international trade are usually introduced to protect domestic production and the national labor market against the influx of imported products.

Below I have described the key determinants confirming the formulated research thesis. To the above discussion, I would like to add the following conclusion, which summarizes my previous considerations on this topic: Protectionist restrictions on international trade and global economic development.

Currently conducted trade wars arise as part of the imposition of additional customs barriers, embargoes on selected imported products, etc., restricting trade to protect domestic production, the national labor market, national brands of companies, etc. From the point of view of the fundamental principles of classical economics, limiting trade by increasing protectionism reduces the scale activities of competition, opportunities for the development of comparative advantage, etc., and as a consequence the reduction of the pace of economic development in most countries, including above all those that introduce protectionism based on the intentional limitation of international trade. In the past, there have been occasions that due to the increasing scale of protectionist restrictions on international trade, the level of economic growth has fallen significantly and, consequently, also in a country that has increased the scope of this type of protectionism. In this situation, the balance between international trade liberalism and controlled, moderate protectionism was broken.

In line with the above, in my opinion, the current protectionist practices of restricting international trade can significantly change the rate of global growth and economic development. This impact may lead to a significant decline in economic growth over a period of several quarters, several years or for a longer period, i.e. in line with the period of application of certain protectionist practices of restricting international trade, e.g. by introducing additional barrier duties limiting imports. Such protectionist practices of restricting international trade are usually introduced to protect domestic production and the national labor market against the influx of imported products.

Do you agree with me on the above matter?

I conduct research in this area. The conclusions of the research I published in scientific publications that are available on the Research Gate portal.

In connection with the above, I am asking you the following questions:

- How can this balance be identified if the protectionist scale of international trade is too large?

- Can the process of increasing protectionism limiting the level of international trade get out of control and lead to a strong slump in economic growth?

- What is the impact of protectionist restrictions on international trade on global economic development?

- What do you think about this topic?

- What is your opinion on this topic?

Please reply.

I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation.

Thank you very much.

Best wishes.

Dariusz Prokopowicz

When the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic ends, what key determinants will shape and affect the global economy's recovery from the current crisis? Will the key issue affecting economic growth again after the pandemic be the continuation of so-called trade wars. Currently (beginning of May 2020), every day there is more and more positive data from various countries suggesting that the pandemic is decreasing, which means that the anti-pandemic security measures and instruments used could significantly help in reducing the scale and slowing down the development of the pandemic. The global economy will slowly recover from the current crisis for many months. Should trade wars be fought, which are an important factor influencing the rate of economic growth? What are the current anti-crisis economic growth activation programs used in many countries? What are the other key determinants of economic growth activation?

What is your opinion on this topic?

Please reply.

I invite you to discussion.

Thank you very much for participating in the discussion.

Best wishes.

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Trade wars are as much a political tool, as an economic one.

Hopefully, one of the benefits of COVID-19 would be to resolve issues that proved difficult to solve via diplomacy and trade wars.

I do not expect future trade wars, as production would be divested elsewhere. It is a process long in the making.

I expect trade competition though - in luxury goods and electronics. Hopefully, competition would bring much needed quality up.

In terms of smaller economies - over-reliance on a limited number of primary good exports, no neighbours-protectors, economic bargaining chips, or other type of leverage in bilateral relations.

It does depend though which country is the trade war with (to understand any ulterior motives for it, if any), where these small nations are situated geography-wise and what alternative trade routes do they have with other countries.

:)

Dear Valeria Tananska, Thank you very much for participating in this discussion. Your perspective on this issue is interesting and very accurate. I agree with your opinion on this topic. The importance of trade wars may decline in the coming years if factors such as the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic continue to have a significant impact on the economy. Besides, the scale of trade wars cannot grow strongly because it can act as a factor limiting economic growth based on international trade cooperation and cross-border flows of goods, technology and factors of production. -border movement of goods, technology and factors of production.

Thank you very much and best regards, Have a nice day,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Interested

Dear Idrees Zebari, Thank you and invite you to the discussion.

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

I would like to add the following question to the above discussion: If in 2021 the good economic situation returns in the global economy, or again, as it was before the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic, the main factor slowing down the development of the global economy will be trade wars between the world's largest economies?

What do you think about it?

Please reply,

I am asking for an answer and invite you to the discussion, Regards, have a nice day,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

A smaller economy that can trade goods directly with other small economies in its region will happily survive and enjoy some degree of affluence. The creation of high tech industries, either directly or through proxy, would again stablise the small economy. A danger remains of any get-rich-quickly approach that encourages small economies to take into their territory economic and military giants, allowing their economies to be ransacked for little long term gain.

Dear Stanley Wilkin, Thank you very much for your response, for a substantive, constructive reply. A very good answer on this topic.

Thank you very much and best regards, Have a nice day,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Trade wars can lead to a decline in revenues in the state budget if the country developed exports and obtained high income from the state budget. In this situation, trade wars can lead to a public finance crisis if the state budget has a high budget deficit and public finances are burdened with high public debt.

Dear Aijaz Panhwar,

Yes, I fully agree with you. Trade wars can lead to a crisis in the state finance system, to an increase in the debt of the state finance system, if a significant part of the budget revenues came from the export of certain raw materials, other factors of production and / or products and services. High public debt is a threat to the stability of the state's finances. There is then a high risk of economic destabilization, which may cause a serious crisis in the state finance system in the event of an economic downturn. The economic downturn may also be caused by completely different factors, such as the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic.

What do you think about it?

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

An example of the economic wars that weaken the economies of some countries in the world is the trade war between China and America.

The trade war between the United States and China, with mutual threats and the imposition of tariffs, has cast a shadow over the global economy, according to the International Monetary Fund, which lowered its growth forecasts in 2018 and 2019.

The International Monetary Fund, which lowered its growth forecasts in 2018 and 2019, confirmed that the raging trade war between Beijing and Washington is weakening the global economy.

The International Monetary Fund, which also refers to the risks surrounding the currency crisis in some emerging countries, expects global GDP growth to reach 3.7 percent for each of these two years, 0.2 points lower, which is similar to what was recorded in 2017.

Dear Maged Gumaan Bin-Saad, Thank you for the relevant, substantive data on this issue. This is a very good and valid example. I agree that the trade war between the United States and China is one of the most important factors in slowing the growth of the global economy. Until the end of 2019, it was a key factor slowing down the pace of economic growth in many countries. If the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic did not occur in 2020, then it would still be a key factor of the downturn. Best wishes, All the best, Stay healthy!

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Trade wars between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts.... In each case, evaluates various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA, an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium... conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP. There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA, but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors.... While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant... There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly... Bouët, A., & Laborde, D. (2018). US trade wars in the twenty‐first century with emerging countries: Make America and its partners lose again. The World Economy, 41(9), 2276-2319.

The impact of trade wars on Switzerland...The counterfactual analysis by Wicht illustrates that a bilateral US-China tariff war induces a significant reallocation of trade flows across trading partners and sectors... Bernasconi, C. (2020). Comment on" The impact of trade wars on Switzerland: A quantitative assessment" by Laurence Wicht. Aussenwirtschaft, 70(01), 35-38.

Adverse effect to Nigeria...Marshal, I., Nkwadochi, K. C., & Emmanuel, A. (2020). COVID-19 PANDEMIC, GLOBAL TRADE WARS AND IMPACT ON THE NIGERIA ECONOMY. Academic Journal of Current Research, 7(5).

Case of India... following explores the effects of Make in India and the global trade war in a combined way utilizing an applied general equilibrium analysis based on 2017 data utilizing the GDyn database... The study aims to first analyse the Macro effects: GDP, Investment and Trade effects from Make in India and Trade War, to understand the overall effect on the Indian economy. Further, sector specific Export, Import, Prices, Output and Employment (skilled and unskilled labour) effects for the chosen 14 Make in India (MII) sectors are analysed, based on their concordance with 20 GTAP sectors. Our initial results based on the static model suggests that the combined impact of both policies, while being beneficial for the Indian economy as a whole, yields negative ramifications for exports, jobs and investment growth. Specific sectors are also unable to increase domestic output even in spite of Make in India, such as Chemical, Rubber and Plastics industries, and those that use it as raw materials, which has ramifications for India’s trade integration with global value chains (GVCs)... Narayanan, B., Sen, R., Khorana, S., Iyer, C., & Srivastava, S. (2020). The Long-term Impact of Trade Wars and ‘Make in India on the Indian Economy.

Trade wars initiated by the United States worsen the global economic prospects and form an unfavorable background for the development of countries, dependent on the world trade, including Kazakhstan... Dodonov, V. Y. The US Trade Wars and the Potential for their Impact on the Economy of Kazakhstan. Post-Soviet Issues, 391.

Dear D A Gayan Nayanajith,

Thank you for answering the question: In what situations can trade wars lead some of the smaller national economies to an economic crisis? In the context of the current economic crisis caused by the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, barriers to international economic cooperation, trade, capital flows, technology transfer, etc. should be eliminated in order to activate economic processes, etc. The barriers to international trade development should be reduced and limited, the scale of the trade wars that are waged should be reduced.

You added some very interesting information to our discussion. Thank you for the proposed sources of literature for this subject. Thank you very much for the sent proposals of interesting topics, research issues, etc., related to this issue. You described the problem very well. Thank you very much for an inspiring, interesting and substantively rich answer. This discussion confirms that the above-mentioned issues are current and developing. I am looking forward to developing cooperation through joint participation in discussions on these interesting and important topics. I invite you to continue our discussions on other topics as well.

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Smaller nation's would be affected if they have limited exportable commodities, import dependent, exporters of primary goods, and heavily indebted.

Dear Samson Adeniyi Aladejare,

Yes you are right. In the case of the so-called international trade wars, it is often the smaller economies, economies at a relatively early stage of development, in the phase of emerging economies but with a lower level of capital and technology endowment, are more exposed to the negative, downturn effects of international trade wars, including restrictions imposed on the process of international trade and international capital flows.

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In the future, the current SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic will end sometime. Before that, the impact of the pandemic on economic processes will decrease significantly. Already, this impact is much smaller than when compared to the period of the first wave of the pandemic, which occurred in March - April 2020. When the pandemic ends, if international trade is deliberately limited by the imposed prohibitive tariffs and other barriers to the cross-border movement of goods and factors of production, the so-called trade wars. In a situation of high indebtedness of the government's financial system, rapid changes in exchange rates, economic problems may arise in smaller, economically weaker economies, which will not quickly recover from the crisis caused by the pandemic.

Regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Salah Ouyaba,

Yes, it is possible that less economically developed countries that export mainly raw materials or low-processed products may be more susceptible to crisis factors caused by the so-called trade wars.

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Salah Ouyaba,

Yes, that's right. More than 2.5 years have passed since I asked the above question. In the meantime, the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) Coronavirus pandemic appeared, the economic crisis, the recession, and a lot has changed. Currently, some economies have already emerged from the economic crisis of 2020. Inflation is rising, prices of fossil energy resources are rising sharply. As a result, the energy-exporting countries are currently recording a large increase in this income. By contrast, citizens in the countries buying these raw materials spend much more on electricity and heat.

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz