I asked this question under climate change and thought I would ask here too. I have written some papers on this recently (Paterson and Lima 2010; 2011; 2012) and thought a general discussion might be useful.
I think the answer depends a great deal on the extent to which mycotoxin mitigation measures can and will be implemented that alleviate climate change effects.
Perhaps the question could be rephrased to this: Will climate change affect the prevalence of weather conditions known to cause mycotoxin contamination of crops / food? This question can then be applied to different regions and mycotoxins.
Yes, that is more specific. But we need clarity on how to mitigate mycotoxin contamination.
A theme "climate change, toxigenic microfungi and mycotoxins" was discussed greatly in 7th Conference of The World Mycotoxin Forum® and XIIIth IUPAC International symposium on Mycotoxins and Phycotoxins in Rotterdam on 5. – 9. November 2012 (see attachment). I can see personally a problem with climate change and an extension of toxigenic Aspergillus section Nigri (ochratoxin A producers) from subtropical areas to temperate zone.
My best regards
Vladimir
Thanks for that Vladimir, most useful. Yes, I presented a climate change/mycotoxin paper at one of the same conference series but previous to that one you mentioned, on the basis of our Paterson and Lima 2010 paper in Food Research Int. I wrote a paper based on my talk which was published in 2011 in the same journal. I can see OTA producers being overtaken by aflatoxin producers which are even more tropical...
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