Dear Manoj Gupta

Pls. find the attached files

http://www.apsnet.org/edcenter/advanced/topics/EpidemiologyTemporal/Pages/ManagementSimulation.aspx

http://www.apsnet.org/edcenter/advanced/topics/epidemiologytemporal/Pages/default.aspx

http://www.apsnet.org/edcenter/advanced/topics/EpidemiologyTemporal/Pages/Disease%20Progress.aspx

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plant_disease_forecasting

http://www.apsnet.org/apsstore/shopapspress/Pages/43542.aspx

https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20073204317

https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/19971001257

D.G. Jones. 2013. The Epidemiology of Plant Diseases Springer Science & Business Media,Pp.460. ISBN9401733023, 9789401733021

S. Savary, B.M. Cooke. 2007. Plant Disease Epidemiology: Facing Challenges of the 21st Century: Under the aegis of an International Plant Disease Epidemiology Workshop held at Landernau, France, 10-15th April, 2005 Springer Science & Business Media,Pp.138. ISBN1402050208, 9781402050206

http://www.apsnet.org/apsstore/shopapspress/Pages/43542.aspx

Hoping this will be helpful

Regards

Prof. Houda Kawas

To be able to predict the outbreak of a disease or pests, you will have to do the relevant epidemiological studies, later and when you already have a probabilistic or deterministic model, you can carry out the relevant simulations and from these you can answer the questions you have. This is the traditional way associated with epidemiology, although there are many other alternatives, such as risk analysis, using niche models, etc.

Hi Gupta

You can read this paper "THE CROP DISEASE AND PEST WARNING AND

PREDICTION SYSTEM", it maybe useful for you

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0ahUKEwj-j_HYrenQAhWHFywKHXMAAd4QFgguMAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fopendl.ifip-tc6.org%2Fdb%2Fconf%2Fifip12%2Fccta2008-2%2FLuoHWW08.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGxhLBdKGgM9-KZiQfIOHQMz852jg&sig2=FaGoY3aLuTOZBUML_koVxw&cad=rja

Hello Gupta,

Firstly, you need to know the environment and weather condition of your region, and the optimum circumstances required to show the outbreak of the pest. Moreover, studying or make a review about the ability of previous pest infection in your region is an excellent option to expect the infection time.  Also, field review before plantation and applying for protection methods e.g. (weed control, soil Stirring, dispose of previous crop residue, ...etc)  considered as a great options to prevent the pest  development and find a solution before outbreaking. 

Finally, all of these are simple content it can help you to find the right protection for your plants.

Best luck,