hi
please guide
how to make multi model ensemble of regional climate model?
I am using south asia domain of cordex and my variables are precipitation, tmax and tmin.
there exists 153 different combinations for these three variables of historical, rcp 4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios.
how to shortlist models and then how to proceed?
I believe these two studies can help you, first using an evaluation of which models are best for your study region:Article Extreme climate indices in Brazil: evaluation of downscaled ...
,and then using multi-ensemble approach:Article Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes acro...
you can look at new paper Article Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate ...
Similar to the previous answers, a simple algorithm would be:
- choose models which provide both historical and scenario simulations
- test the fidelity of historical simulations for each model against regional reanalysis (e.g. JRA) to decide which models show unrealistic mean bias or interannual variability; reject the models that are unrealistic.
- form the multimodel, multimember ensemble and uses this to estimate the multimodel ensemble mean future climate and its uncertainty from the ensemble spread.
I hope this is helpful,
Adam
I second what Adam A. Scaife said and would add that you should consider essential metrics and the geographic region. This could be mean temperature and total precipitation, but also growing season length, 95% percentile of precip, or monthly min/max precipitation/temperature.
It's time-consuming, but worth it. We did this for an agricultural study (assessing grassland production), and used the results for several papers, so the work paid off for us.
We did a meta-analysis of other studies and wrote it up in our "Materials and Methods":Article Potential natural vegetation and NPP responses to future cli...
if you're interested in more details.Hope this helps,
Toni
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