ok, so i'm building this mbal model but the average rates i'm getting in my prediction for the start of prediction i.e end of production history does not match for that day, but the rates on other days seem to match.
what could be the problem?
How are you calculated average rates? Are you accidentally including zero production days in your average?
I imagine you are happy because, over history, observed pressure and rates match. In fact, MBAL considers historical rates as input and predicts pressure. So the fact that rates are honored does not mean much. What happens when you proceed to forecast is that rates are now predicted considering a pressure control, typically a minimum pressure. The parameter you should match is the productivity index. It links the difference between flowing and reservoir pressure to rates.
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