Dear respected researcher,
Imagine that you have a theory that, in the long run, drawing pins land pin-up 2/3 of the time when tossed high in the air (and pin-down the other 1/3 of the time). The competing theory is that the pins always land pin-up.
If your theory is correct, which outcomes would disprove the competing theory and what is the chance that the competing theory will be disproved when you toss the drawing pin twice?
Notes:
Ensure you have the right probabilities (this is not a fair coin and probability is not ½)
You must provide overall probability for disproof
Thanks
No distribution needed... It's just a probability problem. Since the competing theory is that the pins always land up, if you ever get a down-facing pin, that theory is disproven. In two tosses, I'm going to say 56% chance.
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