El Niño is a visualization of the rotational process in the hydrodynamics of the Earth's equatorial belt and the thermal field at the equator. It is generally accepted that during El Niño (changes in the angular velocity of the earth's rotation), floods begin in arid regions, warming in cold regions, drought in humid regions, and cooling in warm regions. Assess the climate in your area and you can predict changes during El Niño.
“El Niño years have a tendency to have a mild wet and westerly start to winter (Nov-Dec) and a colder, drier end to winter (Jan-Mar) across most of northern Europe,” according to UK Met Office
Concerning Southern Europe, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have various impacts on the climate of Southern Europe, although it's important to note that these impacts can be complex and not always consistent. Here are some general effects:
-Precipitation Patterns: During El Niño events, Southern Europe, particularly the Mediterranean region, tends to experience drier than normal conditions. This can lead to reduced rainfall, droughts, and water shortages, impacting agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems.
-Temperature: El Niño events can lead to warmer temperatures in Southern Europe, especially during the winter months. However, the relationship between ENSO and temperature in this region is less clear compared to other areas.
-Storm Tracks: ENSO can influence the position and intensity of the jet stream and storm tracks, which in turn can affect weather patterns in Southern Europe. During El Niño events, the jet stream tends to shift, potentially leading to altered storm tracks and weather patterns
-Heatwaves and Extreme Events: El Niño events have been associated with an increased likelihood of heatwaves and extreme weather events in Southern Europe. These events can have significant impacts on human health, infrastructure, and agriculture.
-Impact on Agriculture: Droughts associated with El Niño events can negatively affect agriculture in Southern Europe, leading to reduced crop yields and economic losses for farmers.
It's important to note that while these are general tendencies, the actual impact of ENSO on Southern Europe's climate can vary depending on factors such as the strength and duration of the El Niño or La Niña event, regional climate variability, and other atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
Here are some useful references for further readings:
Giorgi, F., & Lionello, P. (2008). Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global and Planetary Change, 63(2-3), 90-104. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005]
Mariotti, A., Zeng, N., & Yoon, J. H. (2008). Mediterranean water cycle changes: transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations. Environmental Research Letters, 3(4), 044001. [DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044001]
Ulbrich, U., Christoph, M., & Leckebusch, G. C. (2009). Changing northern hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. Journal of Climate, 22(11), 4166-4183. [DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2458.1]
Lionello, P., Malanotte‐Rizzoli, P., Boscolo, R., Alpert, P., Artale, V., Li, L., ... & Toreti, A. (2006). The Mediterranean climate: An overview of the main characteristics and issues. Developments in Earth and Environmental Sciences, 4, 1-26. [DOI: 10.1016/S1571-9197(06)80003-8]
Xoplaki, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Luterbacher, J., & Wanner, H. (2004). Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends. Climate Dynamics, 23(1), 63-78. [DOI: 10.1007/s00382-004-0411-6]