Can anyone help me with psychological or behavioral studies on how well people remember things, more specifically how long in the past they consider weather for decision-making in agriculture and in general?
I am interested in how accurate or inaccurate seasonal climate forecasts are, compared to the long-term average of observations when it comes to representing past weather in the U.S. Southern Great Plains.
My goal is to assess if retrospective seasonal climate forecasts of past temperature or precipitation are more accurate than the long-term average (a proxy for the human memory) of temperature or precipitation. I need to know how long the "long-term" average needs to be, whether it is one year, two years, or more like ten or 15 years.
I hope this makes sense. Any literature suggestions are much appreciated. Please ask if anything needs clarification.
Thank you!
Thank you, Makesh, but perhaps I should explain my problem a little differently.
I'm not trying to make a forecast but to assess forecast performance, by comparing both (1) the retrospective forecast as well as (2) the long-term average with observational data of the same time period, to see if (1) or (2) is a better proxy of the actual conditions. The reason is this: I want to find out if seasonal climate forecasts (= forecasts in monthly and daily resolutions for one to 12 months lead-time) specifically for wheat farmers are worth producing.
My assumption is that if there was no tailored forecast (which there isn't right now) farmers would make decisions based on their experience, i.e. their recollection of previous months and years, the long-term average in meteorological terms. Likewise, if the forecast is more accurate than the long-term average, then it makes sense to produce a forecast. What I need to know now is how long my "long"-term average period needs to be, i.e. how far back farmers would take things into consideration.
The extreme weather, harsh weather, disastrous weather may have imprint in the mind of people for longer depending upon the intensity/coverage of loss/destruction.
Normal weather is rarely been remembered, all away for scientific preview.
Thanks Surender! I had the same thought about the memory of extremes vs. averages. Do you know of any publications that cover this?
Hi Tony..Major extreme disastrous weather events are CYCLONES...If a cyclone cross the limit of loss of propert and life, Its name is blacklist for future naming as per WMO conventions. Some more related info may be available in following web link.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/Storm-naming.html
Dear Toni Klemm,
Individual human memory is the least reliable method of recording weather and climate. On the other hand, it appears that the information about weather are very often in people's minds. Theoretical predictability of the atmosphere is about 12 days, while the modern numerical models of the atmosphere give good forecasts most 5-7 days in future. Climate data are more reliable, if more based on the observed weather data. The best information about the climate there are from around 150 to 160 years ago, since when there are instrumental measurements. There are also older data on climate, but they are not based on direct measurements of atmospheric parameters.
Regards,
Milivoj B. Gavrilov
Thanks for responding, Milivoj and again Surender. However, I think you misunderstood my question. I'm not asking about the naming and blacklisting conventions of storms, or the predictability of weather vs. climate.
I am looking for publications about the capability of people to remember weather conditions for later weather-related decision-making. I study the skill of seasonal climate forecasts, and for the purpose of my study, I want to compare retrospective forecasts against the long-term average of observations (in this case, people's memory of the weather). What I don't know right now, though, is how long people can remember the weather, i.e. how long my long-term agerage should be.
I know my question is very broad and general, and people likely remember weather extremes (drought, heat) for much longer than averages. For now I only need a ballpark figure, though, or at least literature that points in this direction.
Thank you everyone for participating! I really appreciate your responses.
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