I recently did a basic cost analysis for the COVID-19 response. I assumed extreme effectiveness and high loss without a response, and even still the cost per QALY is absurdly high.
Article: https://vocal.media/longevity/forget-science-this-is-covid-19-we-re-dealing-with
New research is emerging suggesting that the QALYs lost is closer to around 6 - 11. Even at 10 QALYs lost per person, and 500,000 people saved, that still amounts to $1,650,000 per QALY saved. This figure is absurd. Even the figure that I reached in my initial analysis is absurd: almost $500K per QALY.
Has the public health community completely lost all reason?
I suppose if you don’t put preventative measures in place the societal cost of deaths on a large scale becomes very expensive. Also its not just deaths that are of concern. Think of it as WWII or 9/11 was a lot more than just about the numbers of deaths.
some measures are more expensive than others.
the problem is when these measures are finished there is a rebound second and third wave of covid
now with new variants of covid in UK and South Africa spread is beyond exponential. So what would happen if we did nothing. A lot of people would die rapidly. Next QALY/DALY test is the cost effectiveness of vaccination.
on a social level I think people in the long term will have become more insular in how the live and virtual in how they work and study.
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