If there have observed data in many years in Indian Ocean region or neighboring region, the trend and frequent occurrence could be defined.

We looked at significant cyclonic events in the North Indian Ocean from a storm surge perspective:

For the Arabian Sea:

Fritz, H.M, C.D. Blount, F.B. Albusaidi, A.H.M. Al-Harthy (2010). Cyclone Gonu Storm Surge in Oman, Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Sciences, 86(1):102–106, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2009.10.019.

For the Bay of Bengal - see the supplemental figures:

Fritz, H.M., Blount, C.D., Thwin, S., Thu, M.K., Chan, N. (2009). Cyclone Nargis storm surge in Myanmar, Nature Geoscience 2(7):448-449, doi:10.1038/ngeo558.

Fritz, H.M. (2009). After the storm, Nature Geoscience 2(7):528-528, doi:10.1038/ngeo568.

Two papers that may give some ideas:

Goswami, Bhupendra Nath, et al. "A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon." Geophysical Research Letters 33.2 (2006).

Mazzarella, Adriano, and Nicola Scafetta. "Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 107.3-4 (2012): 599-609.