In my opinion, the monetary policy coordinated by central banks can not be objectively assessed without taking into account many specific, current determinations describing the condition of financial markets, the issues of financial risk management instruments applied, the condition of the economy and many other macroeconomic factors. The analysis of a particular monetary policy should take into account the dynamic approach of many variables, including cyclical fluctuation reflected in the changes of many economic categories on the financial markets and in the entire economy. A specific monetary policy may be interpreted and evaluated differently depending on many factors surrounding the condition, financial markets and the economy. In support of this thesis, I cite the following various situations surrounding the banking system and the condition of financial markets and the macroeconomic situation in the context of the cyclical nature of the economy:
1. The process of cyclical development of the national and global economy in a multi-annual perspective, which does not develop fully objectively and independently, is only coordinated by actively pursued economic policies in individual countries, primarily through fiscal and financial policy. To this should be added the issue of the growing importance of central banking in banking systems since the 1970s and the processes of globalization, deregulation, liberalization of transactions and the operation of financial markets, applied security instruments and credit risk management, including capital markets.
2. The impact of monetary policy on central banking on economic processes, when this policy is used, for example, to stimulate economic growth in the deep recession of the economic cycle of the entire national economy, in other words, as has been used many times in many countries since the 1970s. also after the appearance of the global financial crisis in September 2008. Initially, the Federal Reserve Bank in the USA applied such an interventionist anti-crisis solution, and then the European Central Bank in the European Union applied analogous interventionist anti-crisis programs. thanks to this, restoring the balance in the economies and restoring economic growth has worked more effectively and faster than if these interventionist anti-crisis programs were not applied.
3. Long-term, the same, analogical, similar to the same formula, the same goals and directions of action, such as monetary policy co-ordinated by a large central bank, which is also of international importance due to the importance of the US economy, ie monetary policy shaped by the Bank Federal Reserve in the USA. This has been the case since the 1990s until the global financial crisis in 2008. Consequently, this particular policy of the Federal Reserve bank before 2008 was considered by many economists to be incorrect, too low interest rates were maintained for a long time, which enabled commercial banks to broaden the liberalization of lending policy, which resulted in granting these loans to persons without creditworthiness when there were no reliable borrowers and the home sales market was growing, prices of real estate and securities on stock exchanges continued to grow speculatively, despite the fact that they were highly overvalued.
In connection with the above, in the current economic reality it is not practically justified to assess the dominant models of applied monetary policies in universal, timeless terms, detached from the specific economic conditions of a given country, from a specific moment in the business cycle, from specific standards of the institution's supervision of the financial system, on the specific quality of the effects achieved in the area of ??the security of the financial system being a derivative of the application of specific solutions and system prudential instruments in the credit risk management process, etc.
On the other hand, it is justified to make objective, scientifically verified assessments of the dominant models of applied monetary policies, but for a specific economic situation, for a given country, for a specific examined and posted financial system functioning in a specific economy, at a specific moment, phase of the economic cycle of the national economy, global situation, specific situation on the capital markets, the level of valuation of securities on stock exchanges, applicable standards and instruments for the security of the financial system, including the effectiveness of supervision institutions over the financial system, including banking, situtions on credit markets, specific scientifically tested and defined standards for the use of bank loans, i.e. level of credit risk for the majority of credit transactions, etc.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
How do you rate the monetary policy of the central banks?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes