Herd immunity will definitely be able to protect population against COVID19. However, a minimum of 70% of the population have to be immune to the disease (by prior infection or upcoming vaccinations) in order to reach herd immunity. In countries like India with such high population reaching herd immunity will be difficult & take a lot more time.
Of course, immunity plays a major role to protect populations against COVID-19, but the real question is how to strengthen the immune system against COVID-19?
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Tushar Chakraborty Thank you, Sir, for your kind reply. But how many days we need to wait to restore normalcy in life. With each passing day, life is getting tougher.
Herd-immunity is recommended only through vaccination with the SARS-CoV-2. Various reasons are present for this conclusion. Reinfections of COVID-19 are occurring. Thus post-infection immunity appears to be only temporary. There is a significant mortality rate with the primary infection. There is also a high prevalence of morbidity from the primary infection, possibly up to 97% of cases having complications, morbidity and chronic illness. Many patients have things such as lung scarring, reduction of pulmonary function, neurological sequelae, long-term immune dysfunction, etc. It is also possible that this virus will prove to be oncogenic, as is the case with other similar viruses. This, combined with the possibility of T-cell dysfunction from the virus, decreases the desirability to promote "herd-immunity" by primary infection. Herd-immunity, as formed through the use of a good vaccine, should not produce any of these noted complications.
The above is my opinion only, and is for discussion purposes only. Thank you and stay safe.
Dear Dr. Panigrahi, until a vaccine comes to market & its immunity boosting capabilities (booster doses will be required as predicted) are assessed in real world scenario, life will not return to normalcy. Even if mass vaccinations help to build immunity & take us closer to herd immunity, the economy will be severely affected. For any country, especially for third world countries, it will take atleast few years to be back to normal.
It will be costly! a large number of the patients needed to be infected, with the estimation of at least 3 % of the infected subject will die can you imagine how many we will lose?
Waiting for the population to be infected with the virus is a costly and cruel way of getting rid of the disease! Even after achievement the desired outcome, a vast economic and social burden requires years of efforts to recover the situation.
Herd immunity in theory could be effective against covid-19 but will take some time to know due to the following reasons.
1. For herd immunity to be effective, more than 50% of the population must have been exposed, treated and resistant to the virus. Now consider the present recovery number (less than 50 million) of the infected individuals with the present world population of apprx. 7.7 billion.
2. There are isolated reports that showed individuals who recovered from the virus being infected shortly after exposure to the virus again.
With these reasons and more, I believe herd immunity is still a possibility that only time and research will tell.
Herd immunity is a risky theory to rely on. As you mentioned, it takes long time to be proved or not. By the end of that long time, many people will be infected.
History shows that treating pandemics with magic drugs or even taking vaccines as immunization measure are both not done deal. Some of the vaccines in the past proved to be ineffective after many years of initiating them.
The best way forward when it comes to COVID-19 is: do not get infected and if you do so seek the best medical care that you can get.