Global climate projections are normally use the past data and various types of models. Those models use different input conditions (scenarios). Based on the projected climatic conditions, many research organizations formulate further research to find the impact of climate change on various sectors. Based on the findings of those researches, some other organizations plan and implement projects incurring large amount of money. This has become a burden for the economies of developing countries. I wander whether the entire process (especially the input conditions) are realistic or not.
Dear Prema,
In popular forecasting, we are trying to predict an unknown reality by either using rational expectation (RE) or artificial intellegence (AI). RE brings more information to the model than forecasters posess. It requires individual rationality and consistency. AI appeals to bounded rationality and involves learning from the data. This is the best researchers can do statistically, when learning about the unknown real future. An alternative is to use judgemental analysis. Some judgemental analysis such as ANP and AHP have come a long way.
First, in an era of great technological and social change, relying on historic projections is always a very risky endeavor. More important is the identification of emerging issues and opportunities that can address the issue under analysis. For transportation, The Suite of Telecommuting Applications (SOTA) (distance learning, telemedicine, e-commerce, telework etc) remains largely ignored by transportation planners. One cannot deny the impact of Amazon on e-Commerce
but apparently one can deny telework's impact because after 50 years, the ad hoc approach has still defined no standards, no metrics and the census cannot even differentiate between a teleworker and a home based business.
When performed strategically, one can identify trends by industry, occupation etc. And by focusing on the employer benefits, the strategic process also provides the economic motivation to pursue telework as a corporate strategy to enhance their fiscal and operational performance as well as their continuity / disaster recovery programs.
The impact of the SOTA on transportation can be so powerful if properly engaged. The longer we deny these emerging impacts, the more costly will be the adjustment to it. Most policy makers are "people-people" and they find it hard to understand that there are a lot of jobs and employees who can and should be working from home.
An interesting side note is the emergence of Uber. If congestion is the concern, as it greatly increases emission rates, then Uber will actually be increasing the number of trips as they drive to pick you up when departing and again when returning.- the impact is probably not doubling the number of trips or miles driven but it certainly will increase both.
The book "Slaying the Status Quo" discusses all of this within the community context- especially that concerning urban-rural integration.
Hope this gives a new perspective to your challenge
John
I totally agree with the answer given by C. Auroi . Yes, there is no way to measure either the solution is fair or not.
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