Nations across the globe could see their power rise or fall depending on how they harness and manage the development of artificial intelligence (AI). Regardless of whether AI poses an existential risk to humanity, governments will need to develop new regulatory frameworks to identify, evaluate, and respond to the variety of AI-enabled challenges to come.
With the release of advanced forms of AI to the public early in 2023, public policy debates have rightly focused on such developments as the exacerbation of inequality, the loss of jobs, and the potential threat of human extinction if AI continues to evolve without effective guardrails. There has been less discussion about how AI might affect geopolitics and which actors might take the lead in the future development of AI or other advanced AI algorithms.
As AI continues to advance, geopolitics may never be the same. Humans organized in nation-states will have to work with another set of actors—AI-enabled machines—of equivalent or greater intelligence and, potentially, highly disruptive capabilities. In the age of geotechnopolitics, human identity and human perceptions of our roles in the world will be distinctly different; monumental scientific discoveries will emerge in ways that humans may not be able to comprehend. Consequently, the AI development path that ultimately unfolds will matter enormously for the shape and contours of the future world.
Source: AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations? https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3034-1.html
- The emergence of generative AI marks a transformational moment that will influence the course of markets and alter the balance of power among nations. Increasingly capable machine intelligence will profoundly impact matters of growth, productivity, competition, national defense and human culture. In this swiftly evolving arena, corporate and political leaders alike are seeking to decipher the implications of this abrupt and powerful wave of innovation, exploring new opportunities and navigating new risks.
- The world is facing a narrow window of opportunity – what we call the inter-AI years – to shape the AI-enabled future. This window will be brief – a few years at most – then views and strategies will harden; norms, values, standards will be embedded within the technology; and the costs of changing course will rise. While AI-enabled technology will continue to progress, decisions made today will determine what is possible in the future. A generative world order will emerge.
- The US and China are the world’s top AI competitors, but they are also the top AI collaborators. However, in generative AI, most of the cutting-edge innovations today are coming from the US, and China faces an uphill in training LLMs, for now. This technology competition will see geopolitical priorities drive economic decision-making, including through export controls, sanctions, tariffs, industrial policy, investment screening, and other measures deployed to increase absolute and relative advantages.
Source: The generative world order: AI, geopolitics, and power https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-generative-world-order-ai-geopolitics-and-power
Dear Professor Eduard Babulak,
In order to counteract the negative trends in the use of artificial intelligence by authorities against the population, it is possible to widely implement the system of using artificial intelligence by citizens to control the authorities, described in the works:
Tsyganov V. Mechanism of citizen evaluation of policy using machine learning // IFAC PapersOnLine - 2021. - Vol.54, No. 13. P. 107-112. DOI:10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.10.428.
Tsyganov V. Supervised machine learning of citizens and political stability // IFAC PapersOnLine - 2021. - Vol.54, No. 13. P. P. 611-616. DOI:10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.10.517.
An example of control over the work of authorities in the field of COVID-19 using artificial intelligence is also described in the work
Tsyganov, V. Artificial intelligence, public control, and supply of a vital commodity like COVID-19 vaccine. AI & Soc 38, 2619–2628 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-021-01293-y
You may also be interested in the article
Tsyganov V. Socio-Political stability, Voter’s Emotional Expectations, and Information Management // Artificial Intelligence and Society. – 2023. – Vol. 38. – P. 269–281. – DOI: 10.1007/s00146-020-01017-8.
This article has already been read by more than 800 people around the world.
With best wishes
V.V. Tsyganov
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