Great question. My thinking is that commercial cows in the future will have genes from several breeds, maybe there will be composite lines, focused on commercial dairy farms. With genomics and potentially gene editing to move existing genes, it will be easier to see this happen. Already there are composites such as the Kiwi-Cross in New Zealand that are replacing purebred Holsteins and Jerseys. If we simply started putting more emphasis on Energy Corrected MIlk instead of yield, we might see a change. I recently put together a list of the top 10 ECM cows in Holstein, Brown Swiss, Jersey and Guernsey breeds in the USA. Among the top 10 cows, there were 5 Holsteins and 5 Brown Swiss. The Holstein that just made 77,000 lbs of milk ranked  No. 1 for milk yield, but number 16 for ECM yield. It makes a difference when one looks at components. The file is ATTACHED.

This would make sense. Thought there was much opposition when it came to GMO plants being used in the food system, animals are the next big thing to be added. If you don't mind me going on:

The U.S. is a very curious place when it comes to the dairy industry (in my opinion) due to all of the factors. Most small dairies along with a considerable amount of large dairies put a lot of emphasis on "good cows" for showing and such. They choose to breed for cosmetic traits such as udder depth/conformation, hooks and pins, and strength (or having very "dairy" qualities). Purebred associations are adamant to making sure any major shows only allow purebred animals. This has sadly caused a lacking in the genetic pool of Holsteins, Jerseys, and Brown Swiss. Breeds such as Aryshires, Guernseys, and Shorthorns are becoming hobby cows due to the lack of production traits to even make it a viable option on the business side of things. Most of the time a show cow is not pushed for milk production if she is a heavy contender her whole life which is few and far between. but she still goes through much of her life as a "blow off cow" where she gets special attention, not pushed for milk production to heavily, and not always bred back in timely manners in comparison to a normal herd cow. 

Then you have the other edge of the american dairy sword. Declining prices of milk and lack of interest in the younger generations are causing herds to either sell out or become larger: 400+ milking cows. This means cows are being pushed for high milk productions. Longevity has taken a back seat to production. Now as a person who worked heavily in the industry I can understand. Making ends-meet is something you sometimes have to do. Now I am not saying farmers don't care about the cows. Large dairies have some of the best animal health I've ever seen. But on average most large dairies get 3-5 locations before they are culled? So when they choose breeding matches they look at milk production, conception rates of both sires and daughters, and they productive life. 

The past 10-15 years allowed the american dairy industry to try out other genetics from overseas. Breeds such as Swedish reds, Norwegians, and many others proved to be almost a "fad" in the industry. when I worked for a very high profile genetics company the discussion on how these cross breeding programs were going to the waist side because it just wasn't what the farmers were wanting. 

I find it fascinating what the future will hold for the U.S. dairy industry. Will crossbreeds become the new thing that ultimately takes over? Will breed associations be ok with transgenic animals being called "purebred"? They already allow cloned animals to be considered purebred and many are out there! 

Let me know what you think!

Jacob, you make excellent points. Thank you for your insight. We are already seeing some examples of composite breeds such as the Kiwi-Cross in New Zealand and now the Kiwi-Pol that has the SLICK gene. University of Florida also has Holstein crossbreds with the SLICK gene (heat tolerant). Other livestock species like pigs and chickens are rarely purebreds and even most finished cattle are crossbreds. As you are aware, the challenge with crossbreeding is what type of rotation to use and what breeds to include in that rotation AND it is more challenging to manage from a matings standpoint.

In our USA market, our breed mix does not match our current market demand for product. We milk too many Holsteins as a percentage and that produces big surpluses in Non-Fat Dried Milk and Skim Milk Powder. Consumers have shifted to consuming dairy from cheese, yogurt, ice cream and butter, but we are still milking a "fluid milk" based national herd. If we milked fewer Holsteins and more Jerseys, we'd have a better balance between supply and demand.

It is sensible. Currently I am in the center of Fries land, where Holstein is probably originated.  I could see the Top milk producers of the cows all over the world. Still Holstein is at the top rank and the improvement for other traits like you have mentioned (health, longevity etc) are being considered.  Hence I have no doubt that the breed will remain be the top-choice  at least for the near future.

Thank you both for your input. 

Early inclusions of health, longevity, and fitness traits for Swedish Red breed have made tremendous improvement on overall productivity of this breed, and had influenced as breed of choice internationally. For Holstein, however, these aspects were missing until recently, and the breed may have lost its standing as top-choice. I would be happy to read structured review on the scale the Holstein versus other breeds on this topic.

A follow-up question is breed choice for which production system?

You may be interested to read an article on dairy cow breeding for organic farming: http://www.organicresearchcentre.com/manage/authincludes/article_uploads/iota/research-reviews/dairy-cow-breeding-for-organic-farming.pdf

Thank you very much for that paper! It was really interesting how they utilize beef breeds in their dairy systems. Though I'm not a fan of organic dairy farming, it really gives some good incite to dairy cattle breeding and the breeds strengths and weaknesses.

Having a paper written holsteins versus other breeds with genetic traits and overall dairy management specifics would be a great paper to have out there. I certainly think it would need to be written in a form that would be well understood for both farmers and scholars.  

Agree ... most interesting if only because it reminds us to go back to basics in the development of breeding objectives; maybe we need to do that with the Holstein. Get some old genes out of the freezer and start again. With modern tech, we could make the lost ground really quickly. "Organic" is OK if we take the philosophy and infuse some science.

Excellent points, Jacob and Graeme. 

- A paper on Holsteins versus other dairy breeds with genetic traits and overall dairy management specifics

- Breeding objectives revision to re-gain lost functional traits using Genomic selection...

- Matching breeds to production systems where the other way round is not possible.

Is there any evidence that the Holstein breed has lost diversity? I would argue that we have more diverse genes in the Holstein breed than probably any other purebred breed. Why do I say this? Primarily because we have frozen semen from tens of thousands of Holstein bulls stretching back almost 60 years. It's that stockpiled DNA that allowed us to do all of the genomic discoveries in Holsteins. Now some of those genes are in the freezers, not in many current cows or bulls, but at least we have them. What other breed has DNA stockpiled for 60 years? Jersey, yes. Guernsey, maybe. Brown Swiss, probably. If we want higher fat, the genes are there. If we want more protein, the genes are there. If we want higher fertility, the genes are there. Spare the breed and use its stockpiled genes.

Jack, I think the story of loss of diversity comes out of estimates of effective population size. At one stage (2007?), I think the estimate was 28. More recent estimates using molecular techniques (e.g., http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124157) show a larger effective population (about 70) but there is still some concern. As you say, there is a brilliant resource in the freezer!

I can personally say that I have Holstein bulls and Brown Swiss bulls that goes back all the way to the 1960's and I would love to use some! Mostly to see if I get a call from the breed association asking if I wrote it down correctly! 

But what would the feasibility be to use these old genetics and cause a change in say the Holstein breed? It's always possible. Commercially, it would have to be done by a large genetics company that could advertise and most likely do some research on what these old genetics would do when introduced into the present day genetic pools. These would be great research trials/genetic testing to be a part of. 

I definitely see both sides from Dr. Britt and Dr. 

So, Jacob, who is in control here? Who decides the future of the dairy industry? I worry when we defer to a "genetics company". Or a "breed association". In the context of our discussion, what value are these entities? Let me give you another example: in Australia, the associations that look after the Merino breed in the wool industry have done nothing except ensure less than 5% growth in productivity over 100 years. They have done this by focusing on show animals, with bold eyes, erect ears, "well nourished wool" (whatever that is) ... I could go on and I am tempted to use bad language. The Merino situation is far worse than the Holstein situation and signals the dangers. When we established UWA Future Farm 2050, we are asked: "Will you have a XXX (fill in in your favourite breed) stud?". Our answer was a loud "No!" to all of them. We did not want to be involved in a pyramid selling scheme that prevented the development of the Future Sheep. My father was a stud breeder, so this caused some personal angst. But the science is inescapable. The more vertically integrated animal industries (dairy, pigs, poultry) have largely avoided this problem (hence their amazing improvements in productivity), but not completely, and breed associations have been replaced by genetics companies as the sellers of myths. How do I know? Well, I watch the genetics companies sell Holsteins (and other breeds) to countries in the wet tropics.

You make a great point! Sadly it's the same here. Do I think large genetics companies here in the U.S. have the same thoughts as the studs for the wool sheep? I really don't know. When I worked for a large breeding company and then was a GM for another I really didn't see that kind of perspective but you never know! We should always learn from what's going on in the world with the same industry and also other commodities such as wool, beef, etc. 

I am really pleased what you all have to say and your input. This is how I learn and become in tune with what is going on in the world!

Actually there are efforts underway in the USA to do something about this in the Holstein breed. Professor Chad Dechow at Penn State and his colleagues have looked at the Y-chromosome and found that there are essentially 2 "Y-chromosome genomes" in our current population of Holstein genes in the USA. They have found frozen semen that represent additional Y chromosome genomes from more than 40 years ago and they are generating bulls that will carry those new genomes. So the technology and information is there. It is really of interest to the Purebred Organizations to do this, but  they have not taken up the challenge. The USDA and some other world agriculture research organizations have "gene banks" for seeds  and semen that include an incredible array of genomes going back to the earliest days of frozen semen and even before for seeds. So the genes are available if needed. If one looks at the highly-conserved genes as well as those that have a lot of variation or alleles, we need not continue our focus on "breeds". Breeds were made by man, not nature, so the genes are there if we are willing to mine them from many different genotypes among the populations of cattle. Furthermore, we now have the ability to create new or modified genes that can add to genetic diversity. Why not exploit that ability? Good discussion!

"Breeds were made by man, not nature". I will use those exact words in my teaching. Don't know why I did not think of them myself!

Graeme B. Martin. Please feel free to use those words. As teachers, we all share a common interest in ideas, concepts, insights and discovery. You have provided a lot of ideas, concepts, insights and discoveries that your colleagues, including me, have shared with or students.

I prever holestin breed in production of milk

We have many factors affecting the  consistency of milk yield in holstein freisan, Pure breed of holstein freisan will still maintain its productivity provided it is in its natural habitat, but researches exist in order to get better breed, nothing is constant in research, change and discoveries are made daily. 

www.dairyxbred.com/2012/12/13/december-proof-discussion/

Possibly but the large population size makes selection in any direction possible.