Yes. This is the appropriate time to look at optimisation and de-risking.

Currently, solutions do not exist, perhaps in the future, good solutions will be found, and we hope that it will be soon.

Diversification of the supply sources would be the most important task at this point.

Dear Prof. Jayant! Please let me argue that in this case I define optimisation as "resilience and agility factors" . One has to set up AI -based toolkits to set up a group of scenarios to plan along with. There is still no certainty how large these disruptions will evolve in the forthcoming months within supply chain networks of different industries. In the first phase I would undertake qualitative case studies to interpret the signals from the markets of selected industrial sectors:

1) Bloomberg (2020). " Coronavirus: Supply-Chain Disruption Looks Like Natural Disasters" February 27, 2020, Copyright © 2016 - 2018 Keller International Publishing Corp. Available at: https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/30953-coronavirus-supply-chain-disruption-looks-like-natural-disasters

2) Francisco Betti & Per Kristian Hong (2020). "Coronavirus is disrupting global value chains. Here's how companies can respond" 27 Feb 2020 © 2020 World Economic Forum, Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/how-coronavirus-disrupts-global-value-chains/

Yours sincerely, Bulcsu Szekely

This is lesson learned and diversification should be considered.

Hello,

There are several possible solutions in the approaches of Supply Chain Risk management and, notably, through the bi or multi-suppliers strategies and through the alternatives of shorter supply chains.

Is it clear enough for you ?

Bruno

I think in this kind of situations it is important to use judgmental inputs to modelling. There are several questions connected with this issue:

- How to transform expert knowledge into adequate probabilistic representation?

- How to evaluate and track the accuracy of judgmental estimates?

- How to detect systematic errors and calibrate estimates?

Let me recommend Chapter 3 of this thesis addressing the above questions:

Thesis Integration of judgmental and statistical approaches for dem...