Could not find any Chinese author on economic cycles; however, I think this article from Cheng Long is informative, concerning current economic thought. Dialectical and historical materialism (the official ideology of Communist China) works by linearity and outrules thinking in economic cycles (Kondratieff, Kuznets, Juglar and the like). This was also the main reason for the death penalty of Kondratieff in the Soviet Union; also important to mention that Schumpeter introduced economic cyclicity into Western economic thought.

Dear Stephen,

Thank you. I´ll take a closer look.

But let me ask you:

- Thinking that China is one of the most buyers of the world, and the second economy (going to the first position - sometime) don´t you think that it can affect all the world?

Imagine China in a Kuznets or even a Kondratiev cycle... it would have the power to cause a world recession again, in my opinion. Am I exaggerating, in your point of view?

Hess

All this depends on decisions behind closed doors; Chinese are a wise people and they may attempt a successful 'perestroika' of the power structure and the information flow. And, of course, can they push down world conjuncture. The hardware of the economy is systemic/cybernetic, but the software depends on ideas and wisdom. I am counting with a macro-prudent dragon, who has learnt some lectures from the shocking events of the bear in the neighbourhood.

Very well pointed, dear Stephen... as always.

Thanks for sharing your valuable opinion.

A. Hess

Interesting