I’m trying to compose a timeline that projects new discoveries, threats, uncertainty and paradigmatic change in healthcare services over the next century.
I’m interested in all long term health issues including drug resistance, global warming impacts, new technologies, biological warfare and terrorism, new standards and models of care, gene therapy, etc.
The closer these events are, the better we can predict when they’ll make an impact. A drug being tested now may already have a launch date set, whereas the impact of antibiotic resistance is a fuzzy target that we’re already touching on now. Genetic modification therapy seems further away, and it's more difficult to predict when exactly we’ll start seeing it – yet we can still point to a fuzzy target of a decade on either side of 2030.
1. Have you heard of any game-changing innovations in healthcare? Please be inclusive; I’m interested in somatic, mental, surgical, genetic, organic, etc.
2. Are there any predictions about when they might make an impact?
3. Any predictions on impact size?
4. Do you have any references? They don’t need to be academic, but academic Is better.
5. Can you supply the methodology for speculating on impact size and date?
6. Any other thoughts?
7. Do you want to receive this data once I’ve compiled it?
8. Some governments may have put together reports on this kind of thing - can anyone share them?
Hi Jan,
As a gene therapy researcher, I was surprised to see that you think that genetic modification therapy is something that will happen way down the line in the future. The first gene therapy drug (Glybera) has already been approved, and there are a number of clincial trials happening all over the world using gene therapy for many diseases (such as hemophilia and certain types of blinding diseases) that have achieved great success. Over the past year there have been a number of gene therapy companies opening up as there is a lot of excitement and investment in this field.
It is hard to quantify the impact that gene therapy will have. As of right now it is being used mainly for rare diseases (prevalence of less than 1 in 10,000 people), however some groups (including our own) are working on gene therapy for more common diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis.
Genome editing (CRISPR, TALEN, ZFN) is another class of gene therapy and while they still need some development before they are ready for prime time, they will be coming online well before 2030. The first clinical trial using exo vivo ZFN modified T cells has already been initiated by Sangamo Biosciences, but I suspect that true in vivo use of the therapy will probably be 5 - 7 years before the first clinical trials are performed.
So, to answer your question in a nutshell, gene therapy is already a game changing technology that is coming onto the market. It is hard to predict the impact as this represents an entirely new medical paradigm (e.g. single treatment should lead to life-long cure), but I expect that the impact will be large.
Good luck with your project,
John
Thanks for your very informative answer. I'm not a gene scientist, but an architect (with a neuroscience portfolio too) so I know less about genes than my 19 year old son, who studied it in high school.
Your answer will go in my list as exhibit 1. Thanks heaps!
Another area undergoing current intensive research is the brain mapping initiative which is a multi national exploit. I believe it is anticipated to be a game-changer in the way mental health is managed in the future. I actually had the privilege of hearing Michio Kaku talking about the (far distant) future of this area and some of his predictions were of the stuff of science fiction, but they are based on reasonable scientific extrapolations eg one day being able to 'extract' the essence of individual minds based on understanding and mapping the unique connectivity and structure of each brain. He even proposed being able to send the extracted mind on long distance space travel encoded in laser beams. Perhaps this is something for the end of your time line and it would still be very fuzzy. Kaku has written a book on this recently http://newbooksinbrief.com/2014/03/11/54-a-summary-of-the-future-of-the-mind-the-scientific-quest-to-understand-enhance-and-empower-the-mind-by-michio-kaku/ and some more information on the current work can be found at http://www.braininitiative.nih.gov/index.htm
Thanks again Susan.
I watched with interest as Obama gave his approval for this brain mapping research. I have no doubt it will generate some really good knowledge - but being an integrative neuroscientist, I have to say I wonder if my colleagues are up to the task. It's very hard to get people to take their heads out of the minutiae and look at the big picture in neuroscience. But hopefully I speak too soon.
I think that the whole brain mapping exercise will eventually have great rewards. Firstly these will affect organic brain damage, then disorders with an organic aetiology, and finally other mental illnesses. I think laser projecting brains is probably the fuzziest outcome, and may turn up as a thin mist as the 22nd century approaches!
Susan, I had a look at your profile - and you might be interested to know that this 'tool' I'm making is intended to assist with decision making on a macro level when designing healthcare systems.
Hi Jan,
Yes indeed, I am very interested in the tool you are developing and I would like to see how you go with it. I know several areas here who might also be interested in such a tool. Good luck and do keep us informed of your progress!
Shall do. I've really only just started, so it may take a while. Our intention is that the tool will be iterative (meaning it will be constantly changing) and it will also continually project 100 years.
Bem Le Hunte from UTS shared this with me: www.patientslikeme.com. It's a website where patients report on their own illnesses, conditions and treatments. This reverses the research flow, to make it patient driven rather than driven by researchers, by money and by corporate and government interests and university strengths. This is a true step in the direction of genuine patient-centredness, and as such I can see it'll have a huge impact.
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