Proponents on the side of climate change are increasingly emulating the opponents of climate change. Their unabashed certainty seems to outdistance the limitations of predictive models and the wide range of possible degree changes and effects of warming. Many climate change advocates cite the super consensus of climatologists supporting man-made causes of climate change. How does one support the need to manage climate change without becoming a zealot or sectarian in support of man-made climate change? I believe that this lack of humility, critical thinking, and zealotry undermines the science of climate change. Scientific consensus has led to many problems in the past...are we heading towards ideology rather than rigorous science?
Perhaps an interesting parallel to facilitate discussion might be our level of certainty based on the consensus regarding vaccination. The overwhelming majority of medical professionals backed by international health organizations support the efficacy of vaccination. There are multiple lines of evidence supporting this consensus. Yet a vocal minority have swayed enough public opinion to lead to epidemics of preventable diseases. I believe that a vocal, politically motivated, selfish minority has taken control of many of the best governmental mechanisms available to fight climate change. Thoughts?
Yes, I think so. Climate change 'deniers' often don't deny actual climate change, but the cause, and propose other plausible causes, such as solar activity
You pose the hypothesis that “scientific consensus has led to many problems in the past” without providing an evidence base for this statement. Is this true? To form a scientific consensus a large body of quality evidence is required. There are numerous examples where scientific consensus has had many advantages for the human race. Two examples that come quickly to mind are the introduction of vaccines to prevent various diseases (e.g. smallpox, polio etc.) and scientific consensus on the dangers posed to people’s health by smoking.
Declan above makes a good point above. There are several cases where vocal minorities using shaky, or in some cases, no “scientific evidence” have undermined good science. Take for example the use of the combined measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. In 1999 a now discredited paper in the Lancet, based on a sample size of 12, indicated that the MMR vaccine could cause autism and rates of uptake of the vaccine dropped, despite scientific consensus that was contrary to this view point. This paper provides an interesting view on the subject: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3136032/
Surely scientists who are experts in their field are far more likely to have an opinion that accurately reflects the evidence and to understand how to incorporate new evidence as it comes in and to reach a valid scientific consensus than non-experts?
You state that you “believe that this lack of humility, critical thinking, and zealotry undermines the science of climate change” without supplying any evidence for this. Does any evidence exist for this lack of humility and critical thinking?
I think to address your question which is “how does one support the need to manage climate change without becoming a zealot or sectarian in support of man-made climate change?” one needs to be open minded and be open to critical and informed thinking based on scientific evidence. Science is about presenting evidence based on either theories or observations and scientific consensus can change, if new evidence is presented and repeated by others. I am not sure why climate scientists would be more or less open to critical thinking than any other type of scientist?
This paper called “Taking distrust of science seriously” is will worth reading https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5494502/ and makes some interesting points regarding climate change and scientific consensus which may give a more nuanced answer to your question and actuallly may be answers my own question above as well!
I hope that this is of help
Darren
P.S. I’m not a climate scientist!
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