If you look at the trend in the past ten years, pretty much starting with the Ipod's, there has been a shift towards Apple products and/or OS's. Today, we can no longer separate mobile devices (smartphones) from desktop computers. People use both as a unified computing platform. Whenever somebody buys an iPhone and likes it, the next natural thing Is to consider an iPad or a MacBook, or a Mac desktop.
It looks like, coming from the desktop, Microsoft couldn't pull off the expansion to the mobile world and is currently trying real hard with Windows8 and the deal with Nokia ... In the meantime, Apple is strengthening its foothold in the desktop and laptop worlds ...
I am doing a survey on how people think this battle will end up within the following 10 years ?
a) Apple will expand to the point, where it has a 50%+ share in desktop and mobile as well as 80-90% share in the mobile world. MacOS will be the dominant OS for desktops.
b) Microsoft will do real well with Windows8, and will start chipping into Apple's huge mobile market share. Apple's expansion in the desktop market will stall,
c) Apple will take so much market share from Microsoft in the desktop arena that, MacOS will be the dominant OS in the world, pushing Microsoft to #2
d) Other players , such as Google, will become dominant players and will threaten both Apple and Microsoft.
e) any other ideas are welcome ...
"They must be stupid if doing so". You don't take over a company with a "certain mentality in mind". You'd rather search in the market for companies with new ideas: health sensors, smart homes, payment solutions to extend the reach of your mobile OS.
In fact, I would turn the question around:
Will any mobile OS supplier be able to become dominant, or will open OS like Ubuntu take over?
The question is getting really interesting if (and when?) Google will lock Android - as we have seen with Oracle and Java. Now Java has a hard time, as there are two competing approaches OpenJDK and Oracle Java. If you were a company, would you set your future on java or on .net?
Thus, looking forward to an interesting future :-)
"They must be stupid if doing so". You don't take over a company with a "certain mentality in mind". You'd rather search in the market for companies with new ideas: health sensors, smart homes, payment solutions to extend the reach of your mobile OS.
In fact, I would turn the question around:
Will any mobile OS supplier be able to become dominant, or will open OS like Ubuntu take over?
The question is getting really interesting if (and when?) Google will lock Android - as we have seen with Oracle and Java. Now Java has a hard time, as there are two competing approaches OpenJDK and Oracle Java. If you were a company, would you set your future on java or on .net?
Thus, looking forward to an interesting future :-)
Josef, I love your comments :) I most definitely want to bring Google into this question, but, I started with the Apple vs. Microsoft war first ! I do not see Android being the ONLY OS for a desktop, so, I figured, MS and Apple definitely had a chance to get into everything (i.e., desktop, laptop, mobile). Google could own the mobile (best case), but, it is very hard for them to get into desktop and laptop ... The best they can do is get a better and better Chrome working, and the underlying OS will always be MS Windows ... WILL IT ?
As for me I don't think APPLE can because MICROSOFT has been there for quite a while now, they have been able to withstand several harsh terrains and un-favourable market conditions.....they are more experienced than APPPLE.......APPLE is jus like a a flower...it is all rossy for now but can they actually stand the taste of time, that's the big question because MICROSOFT has.
Oh, Josef, I now get what you are talking about. I think, I should have used the words carefully. I didn't mean "take over" in the sense of a "business acquisition." I meant (surpass). I modified the question, so, it is clear now.
Onyegu, what I am hearing from you is that, you are telling me : I am under-estimating Microsoft :) ... And, I think , I am seeing you under-estimate Apple :) One interesting thing I would like to know is : Do you think Apple won't stand the test of time because of Steve Jobs' absence ? or, in general ? ...
I definitely agree with you as far as Microsoft ... the business is solid, and it doesn't depend on any one person (not to mean, Steve Ballmer is not the best of the best, just like Bill Gates was !) One interesting thing with MS is that, they are riding on a product that got a huge foothold decades ago, and they kept improving it, and they had excellent execution. The absurd amount of money they are generating ($60B profit per year) also attracts the best of the best minds to work for them. It is hard to fail with this virtuous circle ...
On the other hand, let's look at Apple's numbers : $170B in sales, $70B profits,
With these numbers, are you still sticking to your "roses" theory :)
If Apple could bring the price down for its products it would. There's a commercial running now found here http://www.microsoft.com/surface/en-us/commercials. It sums it all up. I can remember when Microsoft released Vista and computer savvy people hated it because they were so use to XP. Now the same is happening with Window's 8. After they modify the OS to meet the needs of the customer, people will continue to buy Microsoft computers.
Adam, I think you nailed it ! This is the answer. I remember days when Dell didn't have a computer less than $1500 ! Then, all of a sudden, all you hear is Dell. Why ? PRICES !
I remember Steve Jobs saying "we don't know how to make a computer < $500 that isn't junk" :) The question becomes, how MARKET DOMINANCE will help you.
*** Selling 1M computers with a $300 profit each is the same profits as selling 10M computers at a $30 profit.
*** Why should you do that ? Well, you have 9M more of your products out there.
*** How does that help me to have 9M more computers out there ?
*** ...
The story goes on ... I guess, when you pretty much have no competition (i.e., MAC clones), you don't have the motivation to reduce prices ...
Only time will tell !
BTW, the video is awesome ! IT shows, how Microsoft is getting smarter !
My take is that it will depend on Microsoft adaptability to changing market force. what I have seen from them is that:
1) They rely on Office for the stronghold on PC's
2) Integration between their products lines. this is true for the PC and gaming console but not so successful with the tablet and mobile
While the PC market will continue regardless of what people say (we need content producers for the content consumers), this is not what shareholders are looking. They are looking for growth which is an area were Apple and Google are right now. Also in the mobile environment Google and Apple got there first and took a stronghold especially with Android. As opposed to the PC, Androids underlying Linux system was there first and established itself before Microsoft and so did Apple. Competing in this arena is not the same as it happened with Netscape were Microsoft controlled the underlying OS. In the mobile space the field is leveled and it would depend on Microsoft having domination of the hardware system to pull a Netscape on Google and Apple which they do not have.
The problem that I see with long term growth for all of them is the lack of flexibility in mobilizing resources to new areas were research and development expenditures might be steep. If Microsoft can overcome this issue I would see them as a force that could reinvent itself and still dominate in the future.
In the long term I want to see what happens when the mobile market reaches the stability peak in sales and the cloud love dissipates, then we will see what new innovations can we see from the three players. Best wishes to them all.
I don't know about business markets, but this is my opinion as a user...
I'm a Mac user, I started with an iPod 4 in 2011 and got more and more products with time. Now all my world is Apple based, from my phone to my wi-fi router and tv.
I see Apple products as an investment, for several reasons: they work real good, they're faster and work better, don't get 'stuck' and re-sell very good when you want an upgrade of your equipment... (I say want because I rarely felt like I needed the upgrade as much as just wanted it..) As a previous windows' user I have to say I'd never go back to Windows and PC's (any Windows: Vista or 8), I still keep a 'windows' laptop that I only use for specific needs, but I have to say I think of it as my last resource, I don't work on it...
Apart from my personal experience, I think Apple has a long way to go to overcome OS market in desktops and laptops, but I think they're doing a better job already, in both software and hardware. One main problem they have is specific-field programs that don't exist for Mac, and I think that's because of the number of users... On the other hand, Macs are widely used in fields like animation, video productions, etc. Right now I know a few researches that use Macs, but they are the less..
On the mobile area, I think they're growing really fast and give a better user-interface experience with iOS for example vs android, windows or google... which I've tried and didn't like (before and after using iOS)...
I don't think that will happen in business world since they would like to have proper control. Though I use windows as well as iOS devices, I enjoy freedom and would like to do things my way. That missing freedom in iOS is what keeps me away from many of the iOS options. If windows also becomes like that with what we are seeing now with java may be things will change.
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