Fire management requires an understanding of climate and human factors on fire activities in specific regions. Human controlled several factors such as land tenure, land cover, fire management, and land policy.
Modelling wild fires is a complex activity which needs to link meteorological conditions, drought conditions, fuel load in the field, house vulnerability to fire and indeed human behaviour. One of those models is the "Fire Impact and Risk Evaluation Decision Support Tool" (FireDST) a model developed by Geoscience Australia a few years ago. A good description of the model is here:
Here are a couple additional papers that may be helpful. However, the literature is quite deep on this topic, and will require a comprehensive search and review. - there are a few paleoecological studies which have found charcoal in deep peat cores, indicating periods of drought and perhaps human-influenced fire events over the past few thousand years in Kalimantan. Peat drainage creates anthropogenic drought conditions on the peat surface so that dryland species can be grown (Acacia, Oil Palm, Rubber, etc) so fires are now much more frequent and severe, further exacerbated by hydroclimatic drought brought on by El Nino conditions. So human-climate interactions are key determinants of fire and C emissions from peatland landscapes.
This is a very interesting and important topic. Good luck.