The cost of transportation per unit of container can be reduced significantly when we have larger vessels. But can the current maritime route's bottleneck such as the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and perhaps the Malacca straits accommodate these super giant vessels' draft, length and width? Which one should be our concern: to adjust the canals according to new vessel specifications or the vessels themselves have to suit with the canals specs?
Hello.
I tend to agree with the Malacca Max report theory, presented by Wijlnost et al, the limits for ship growth will be imposed by economic feasibility, in that case, the ship's size is not likely to growth beyond 18,000 TEUs and a 21 meter draught any time soon and even though models of greater capacity can become technically feasible, will not be economically viable. The current situation with some shipping lines like Maersk proves that ever greater attempts to reach economies of scale might have reached its limits. Add to this landscape the fact that consumption is not likely to grow at the same pace it did during the last 50 years, due to political, economical and demographical triggers that are expected in the next few decades.
The following link perhaps may stimulate our discussion on this issue:
http://www.hanseatic-lloyd.de/english/corporate/news/archiv/onBoard/artOnBoard3111-01.html
"......The race is led by Maersk. In February of this year, the Danish liner shipping company confirmed the ordering of ten 18,000 TEU ocean giants and at the end of June it exercised the option for ten more.
Whether that is the end for the time being remains to be seen. In the past, competition was fierce and the rivals did not take long to catch up. It is therefore quite possible we may see orders of 20,000 TEU vessels or more. At least one large Chinese shipyard has reported there is already a 21,000 TEU model in the pipeline."...
the big trouble is a dimension of locks in harbours with big tide. second is deep of harbours, third is a construction of cranes and quays, in ancient history we find that was building two big ships and only one harbour can services them - Alexandria port.
So too biggest container ships could take off many ports from world trade, they could be few big hubs services by biggest container ships, and other ports have problems with activity in world trade, that could be made a monopoly in trade for example from Far East to Europe and America
Thanks to Hector and Krzysztof for brilliant comment. Is that meant we can have super giant containerships only for certain main voyages crossing ocean and for long distance (using pendulum service)? While for short sea or domestic/regional sea transport we use 8,000 TEUs or below?
Muhammad. because they have on board equipment for self unloading. giant containerships are strong linked with cranes on the quays
Yes Krzysztof. Other issue is the quay depth. How ports entertain those giant ships with deep draft?
@Muhammad
Thank you very much for your response. I think the question is about economics rather than technical feasibility. The fact that Maersk and other shipping lines have embarked in the construction of gigantic vessels leading to overcapacity in the main trade routes does not mean automatically that this will be the new standard, let alone that all of this ships are profitable. Moreover with the slow demand and low customer confidence exacerbated by the European situation http://www.supplychainbrain.com/content/index.php?id=5032&cHash=081010&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=21645 and expected relocation of major production nodes in the global supply chain will further alter the scenarios many of the ocean carriers and ship owners had envisaged when the orders for many of the megaships were put: http://www.supplychainbrain.com/content/index.php?id=5032&cHash=081010&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=21226.
Krzysztof by the way raised very important points, the mega-vessels are coming represent a challenge on infrastructure and supra structural levels for container terminals around the world. It is an interesting case of supply concentration, since only a few terminals will be able accommodate and service these mega-ships around the world, hence, investments to accommodate this ships will have to pondered.
Thank you Hector. It was surprised everybody when maersk announced to order 20 units of triple-e class containership of 18,000 TEUs capacity. Competition among shipping lines is very intens while many ports have limitation to accommodate larger draft as you mentioned. Two decades ago, ship design was locked to the panama canal specifications. But recently the panama authority has to adjust its specs. Now it's also happened to container terminals. The shipping liners have 'forced' the terminals to accept new ship specs.
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