Can anyone help me by suggesting an appropriate extremely simple statistical method for evaluating a natural experiment. I want to analysis the effects of global warming on violent armed conflicts by using disasters as a natural experiment. I am using events data base both for disasters (EM-DAT, The international disasters database) and conflicts (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) data base) . I am looking forward to answering the research question " Do natural disasters increase violent armed conflicts?

Thanks.

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