Do you think these cars would be vanished from the streets and go to museum if the oil wells are depleted entirely?

Maybe. There are numerous ways to produce liquid hydrocarbon fuels from fossil energy sources other than conventional petroleum. These are more expensive than conventional petroleum, but could become competitive in the face of sustained high prices. Critically, those prices might still be low enough to keep BEVs uncompetitive, especially given the infrastructure advantages of liquid hydrocarbon fuels. See this article by Brandt & Farrell: www.ce.cmu.edu/~gdrg/readings/2007/03/20/farrell_riskofoiltransition.pdf

Do you think the automotive engineers can mitigate all faced challenges about utilizing green cars such as hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)?

I'm not sure HEVs face many challenges other than consumer acceptance, which I think is mostly a matter of cost. Cost premiums will probably fall over time with learning. FCEVs face more fundamental challenges in fuel cell performance and efficiency, and refueling infrastructure. Some of these cannot be resolved by automotive engineers, or by engineers at all: they are business and policy problems.

The most important question ... Do you trust the statistics who state that oil wells are extractable until 2037 and after that, there would be no oil?

I have not seen these statistics, but in general, no, I don't trust them. Reserves have increased over time as new discoveries are made and extraction technologies are improved. It is unlikely that we will wake up one day and find that production has been shut off. A more likely path is that as production gets harder and more costly, consumption decreases and alternatives to conventional fuel will increasingly come into the mix. Those alternatives could be renewable, or could be non-petroleum fossil fuels. Absent appropriate carbon pricing or regulations, I suspect the latter is most likely. In the end, I think we are likely to run out of space to safely dump our CO2 than we are to run out of fossil fuels.

Artur: many things are archaic, but that doesn't stop people from doing them!

Aleš: If in the future we have a large amount of daytime renewables generation, then I would expect electricity prices to be lower during daytime, and that would be the preferred time for people to charge their EVs. Right now, we focus on overnight charging for two main reasons: simplicity of home-based infrastructure, and lower electricity demand at night. This could easily change in the future.

Looking at the energy crisis, yes we will have to look for better means to power our automobiles. There are several promising technologies developed and they have been surviving well in the market. Further they have posed a major threat to ICE driven automobiles. The pace which these new technologies are evolving is highly noticeable. If you consider the EVs the manufacturers have been overcoming the drawbacks such as longer charging time, Limited range etc. At this rate of development and with the green label on, it will take less than a decade for a majority of the world to start using EVs. So it seems that the future of ICE based automobiles are uncertain. But the brighter side for ICE based vehicles is that there are people who prefer PHEVs than an EVs at present. This may be due to the availability of fuel. But once they are gone even the PHEVs will have a lesser opportunity in the market. Eventually we will have to say good bye to ICEs unless we find a green fuel source to power them.

That's not my area!

Cordially

Do you think these cars would be vanished from the streets and go to museum if the oil wells are depleted entirely?

Maybe. There are numerous ways to produce liquid hydrocarbon fuels from fossil energy sources other than conventional petroleum. These are more expensive than conventional petroleum, but could become competitive in the face of sustained high prices. Critically, those prices might still be low enough to keep BEVs uncompetitive, especially given the infrastructure advantages of liquid hydrocarbon fuels. See this article by Brandt & Farrell: www.ce.cmu.edu/~gdrg/readings/2007/03/20/farrell_riskofoiltransition.pdf

Do you think the automotive engineers can mitigate all faced challenges about utilizing green cars such as hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)?

I'm not sure HEVs face many challenges other than consumer acceptance, which I think is mostly a matter of cost. Cost premiums will probably fall over time with learning. FCEVs face more fundamental challenges in fuel cell performance and efficiency, and refueling infrastructure. Some of these cannot be resolved by automotive engineers, or by engineers at all: they are business and policy problems.

The most important question ... Do you trust the statistics who state that oil wells are extractable until 2037 and after that, there would be no oil?

I have not seen these statistics, but in general, no, I don't trust them. Reserves have increased over time as new discoveries are made and extraction technologies are improved. It is unlikely that we will wake up one day and find that production has been shut off. A more likely path is that as production gets harder and more costly, consumption decreases and alternatives to conventional fuel will increasingly come into the mix. Those alternatives could be renewable, or could be non-petroleum fossil fuels. Absent appropriate carbon pricing or regulations, I suspect the latter is most likely. In the end, I think we are likely to run out of space to safely dump our CO2 than we are to run out of fossil fuels.

Artur: many things are archaic, but that doesn't stop people from doing them!

Aleš: If in the future we have a large amount of daytime renewables generation, then I would expect electricity prices to be lower during daytime, and that would be the preferred time for people to charge their EVs. Right now, we focus on overnight charging for two main reasons: simplicity of home-based infrastructure, and lower electricity demand at night. This could easily change in the future.

I'd say even if oil wells are exhausted, the possibility of obtaining liquid fuels, that still have the best Energy content to weight ratio, from coal and other sources, remains.

I have the hunch that the size of automotive engines, hence its fuel thirst, may be more connected to the overall refiner's business production than to other considerations, gasoline is an unavoidable byproduct of crude distillation, when Internal Combustion Engine was discovered and spread, refiners went glad, as formerly, they had no use for gasoline, they even send it straight to the sewage systems and to the water flows, so, if a certain amount of gasoline is produced, with no alternative, car makers will tend to adjust the car engine size to the fuel availability.

In ICEs there were two traditional, opposite lines, an small displacement, raced engine, the British choice, and a large, slowly turning motor, the German choice.

An engine giving most of the possible top power works at higher volumetric efficiency, hence a better SFC, but a raced engine has more mechanical losses, friction raises a lot as piston speed, rpm, raise, have also a shorter life, and are more prone to faults.

You see today cars with less than 1 liter engine yielding more power than the 4.2 litres AMC six in line gave in 1975, around 115 HP.

The automotive industry did a great job in improving fuel economy, but there are niches left to exploit, I think in Wankel Rotary Combustion Engine for small applications, generators, general aviation and range extenders, it can work with simple fuels having an ON of around 80 to 90, and systems as the Piccard-Pictet Rotary Valve (patent GB118407) or the Burt-McCollum Single Sleeve-Valve (see Wikipedia) for general purposes; approaches as 'Turbo-Compounding', exhaust energy use, are feasible..

Pure electrical vehicles look unfeasible to me, again, the energy density of batteries is too low for some uses, there are no plugs in the wilderness, but you can always carry along with you some fuel cans, and in the end, even if plugged electric cars may keep the downtown air cleaner, the energy that moves these cars is as clean and 'green' as the source of its electrical power is, in some places, an electric car user can be emitting more CO2 per km than with a Gas or Diesel car.

Is there enough raw materials in the world as to produce batteries for all transport using only electricity?

Electric motors and battery technology is improving day after day, but the adaptation time may be long.

An UK writer said changing all their transport system to pure electrical vehicles will need and impossible increase in the electrical production facilities output of many tens above the current one.

Hybrids are the perfect solution for any surface transport; there are even alternatives to the trains, things as 'Hyperloop' are too complex for me, but I'm specially fan of an old Spanish invention, the 'Vertebrate Train', patent 1567343, having a concrete elevated track, as Chicago's 'Loop', but simpler and cheaper, the possibility of speeds up to 400 km/h, carrying passengers or freight, and simple wagons that can be made of composites, an experimental unit was installed in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria https://youtu.be/PzC7G3vYB9s

In ships, I'd begin for having any material that could end sent to the sea being biodegradable, I like elements as the Flettner rotor, and can't understand why no serious consideration is made of the fact that ethylene glycol based anti-freeze and cooling liquids kill many persons each year, by drinking it, but propylene glycol based cooling liquids (e.g. Solar 57, by Pequinsa), that have a better heat carrying ability and are non toxic, are not massively used yet.

The conventional cars have a future, as the freedom it give, and its positive consequences in the overall economy can't be discarded, but its technologies and shape may evolve.

The option I'd take is hybrids; what happens, we just need waiting a bit to know, but: 'Let's forget about tomorrow, for tomorrow never comes'.

Nice Xmas and new year 2018, + Salut

Dear Dr. Artur Braun

I really appreciate your kindness and attention to my question.

I was really surprised as I read your sentence mentioning that you have driven a fuel cell car for about 8000 kilometers. I was really shocked !!!

My university professors state that the fuel cell cars are not going to be commercialized for at least 20-30 years. Can I ask you what make is your car and which model?

By the way, you may have forgotten countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and those which earn money by selling petrochemical goods especially crude oil and natural gas. How were you convinced that “Drilling holes for natural gas/petroleum is archaic”?

Moreover, Iran, my country, and some other countries possess coal mines which means billions of dollars. Do you think the governments forget the money inside the ground and look at the little amount of energy generated by hydrogen or wind power?

About your third topic, I frankly disagree. Nowadays the fossil fuel such as oil, petroleum and diesel are being burned in a variety of engine types for transportation. How do you say that “Using fossil fuel and burning it is ended”?

Looking forward to hearing your points.

Cordially.

Dear Kapila elkaduwe

Thank you so much for your nice comment. I enjoyed a lot reading it. By the way, I was thinking about this question while reading your notes. What do you think about the car plants that produced ICE driven automobiles? Are they going to be bankrupt?

On the other hand, I found out from your sentences that you believe in statistics who state oil would be available just for 20 years (end in 2037).

Can we really trust them?

Dear Obrad Spaic

Thank you for your attention and time.

Best Regards.

Dear Yasin,

Thank you for the appreciation. Rather than the statistics of hydrocarbon depletion, I believe in the trends in the market. If you look closer you could see that once you get a green label attached to a product stating that it has less of a carbon foot print, environmentally friendly operation etc., you tend to see a market shift towards the specific item than the conventional product. Their is a trend in the general public where they prefer either highly fuel efficient and environmentally friendly cars or a form of a EV. Now it's observed that the general public are much concerned about the environment and even if the price of a environmentally friendly product is few percent higher they would go for it. It is seen that some governments are also encouraging the usage of environmentally friendly alternatives like EVs. Moreover it is seen that automotive derived emissions have been causing major health related problems in many countries.

Additionally you could see that the EVs and their variants are not produced in the scale of ICE based automobiles and if the manufacturers do so, we could see a cut down in the price of EVs as well. Further more considerable amount of research have been addressing the drawbacks of EVs specifically the charging time and range etc. and possible solutions have been popping out from the EV manufacturers. People like Elon Musk have been showing keen interest towards this field. So it's possible that these issues will be sorted out soon. Although the current rate of this shifting to EVs is small, with possible solutions a growth is highly likely to be observed. Summing up everything I believe that we are looking at an era of EVs rising up in the horizon. With intervention of governments we will be looking at an increase in the pace of this transition. But there are possibilities that this rate could be slowed down by organization and entities that may be looking at safeguarding their income through crude oil based productions.

Rather than concentrating on ICE based version only, we can see that the existing manufacturers introducing EVs. So even if we move to using Evs I guess the current production lines would not be left out. They would undergo a certain degree of alterations to produce their counter part. And also I believe that the ICE based versions won't be out of business as for some users of it will be present for a certain time period.

Predicting any future based on past trends may be inprudently arrogant, especially in a fast moving complex world.

Hydrocarbons Energy and Power densities make them a formidable contender for automotive applications as long as they remain availbale. Beyond the suitability of battery for heavier duty applications, the primary source of electricity may remain fossile if nuclear plants are retired.

I expect the forseable future to carry both EV and ICE options and likely new reconsiderations like Hydraulic Hybrids for both, and may be other alternative. Electrical infrastructure challenges are not only generation but also distribution.

New Alternatives Clean Power production at the point of use and Energy storage will continously tip the balance, Technology evolution and natural selection will do its work and we will all follow perceptions in the short term and adapt to realities in the longer term.

Final note, when I was interviewed by Exxon in 1978, I asked about oil reserves. The interviewer's answer was "40 years like when I started 40 years ago. That what it takes to amortize previous investments and set up new extraction and distribution infrastructure." Bare a major disruption, human culture doesn't change globally very fast.

Dear Mr. Salami,

As per your question to Dr. Braun about the make and model of the fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) he drove, I would like to name some of such vehicles available in the market right now:

1. Toyota Mirai (https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html)

2. Honda Clarity (https://automobiles.honda.com/clarity-fuel-cell)

3. Hyundai Tucson (https://www.hyundaiusa.com/tucsonfuelcell/index.aspx)

There is also the Riversimple Rasa (https://www.topgear.com/car-news/big-reads/riversimple-rasa-hydrogen-car-wants-save-world) which approaches the market with a different strategy.

Fuel cells are quite expensive currently, and hydrogen refueling infrastructure is lagging far behind the current coverage of BEV charging stations. There is also the opinion that FCEVs are just a third as efficient as BEVs (https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/toyota-elon-musk-fuel-cell-hydrogen/). These things may have prompted the response from your professors.

Dear Yasin,

Please find below my humble opinion:

1. Oil will never run out! But as the EROI of oil extraction dimishes (and tends to one), oil ceases to be a serious energy option. That is already happening! In addition, the chemical energy stored in fossil fuels is negligible compared to solar, wind and renewable energy. Environmental concerns shall ralentize the oil consume, more than its availavility. I really think than the better is keeping all fossils under the ground due to the already unsustainable CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. So, oil and gas could last forever...

2. Engineers can, of course, mitigate many of the technical and environmental problems of gasoline, electric, fuel cell, hybrid and other types of vehicles, but they can not eliminate them completely. The solution to environmental problems goes beyond technology, it is a matter of ethics, economy, justice ...

3. Electric vehicles, even when they could have very cheap and 100% recyclable electric batteries, would only be a better option if the electricity they consume was generated from renewable sources. If it comes from a conventional thermoelectric power plant, the net energy efficiency would be even lower than with current conventional vehicles. But because they are simpler, easier to manufacture, more drurable and require much less maintenance, they will quickly displace a large part of the gasoline and diesel vehicles.

4. The option that I consider sustainable for ICE is to produce clean fuels from concentrated solar energy, atmospheric CO2, and water, and using them in engines based on much more efficient cycles than Otto´s and its variants (Atkinson, Miller, .. .) in hybrid ICE-electric vehicles.

5. I am afraid that the ICE will remain vigent for a long time, but the sooner the consumption of fuels based on fossil resources is eliminated, the better it will be for everyone.

Regards!

I work in the automotive industry. The prevailing opinion is that IC engine production will peak within the next few years and then begin to decline. But, right now, more IC engines are being produced than ever before...and they're more efficient, powerful, and reliable than they've ever been before.

There will always be a place for IC engines of some kind...whether they're fueled by gasoline or liquid petroleum or hydrogen. The reason is simple...electric vehicles have limited range. They may be fine for driving to-and-from work everyday, but they're not suitable for a family vacation drive across country. They're also not suitable for long-haul trucking.

No, I don't believe oil reserves will be depleted in the lifetimes of anyone reading this. More and more oil is discovered all the time. Furthermore, the technologies used to detect and extract oil are becoming more advanced all the time.

I think the future will consist of a mix of competing technologies...which is great for the livelihoods of engineers and scientists. Economics and end-user needs (and biases) will determine the mix. We should not make the mistake of thinking that electric vehicles don't also consume limited resources in their production. They do. Many rare-earth elements are required for the production of batteries, solar cells, etc. The extraction of these elements induce massive environmental damage too.

Honestly, if people would drive deciduously and keep their cars tuned up and properly inflate their tires, we'd save at least as much fuel as converting a large proportion of the fleet to electric.

This all ignores what I consider to be the bigger game-changer...autonomous vehicles. Within five or ten years, many people will start to wonder why they even own a car. Uber and others will have self-driving cars. When you need or want to go someplace, you'll schedule a ride and an autonomous car will show up. Whether the vehicle is gasoline-powered or electric will not concern you. You won't care about the styling or horsepower either.

Dear all,

I am a masters student in the vast field of Automobile Engineering from India. In chaotic situation of BEVs, HEV's roaring like anything, Do you think there is still hope for research in Internal Combustion Engines ? In India, government has announced to go completely electric from 2030 and hence all the OEMs started investing in R&D of EVs decreasing the concentration on conventional ICE. I am confused what should the fresh engineers like us focus on 1. Further research in conventional ICE like HCCI, RCCI technologies or 2. Go with the flow in study of EVs.

Please guide. Every opinion from experienced people like you here will be helpful.

Thanking you.

For sure you'll like the attached 1917 patent GB118407 by Piccard-Pictet, perfectly adaptable to air-cooling, the best in extremely hot or cold weather.

Same as Burt-McCollum Single Sleeve-Valve, it eliminates the non-lubricated zones of BDC and TDC, where speed of piston respect to cylinder wall is zero; it's relative speed of parts what maintains lubricating oil film working, this non-stop movement of piston respect to the liner it works inside reducing wear, and faults, with the Rotating Sleeve-Valve having the added advantages of better breathing, and absence of hot spots in head, allowing for higher Compression Ratio with lower NO gasolines.

H Ricardo obtained evidence his SSV engines had a better mechanical efficiency on motoring than the poppet valvers.

Bristol had to work hard to find the right alloy combination for an Iron Sleeve working inside an Aluminum Air-Cooled cylinder, but with an Iron cylinder wall, an Iron Sleeve Valve will cause no problems.

Have a good year 2018, Salut +

Hi, I just want to add, that the economics behind the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) , is too big, just imagine, that for each car model there is an Engine factory wish produces for OE (Original Equipment), Service and replacement. In addition, it include all the scenario for the parts involved, for the same market (OE, Service and replacement), it means, Oil, spark plugs, and so on. So it is a huge market where it is involved a tremendous investment and a huge revenue that no body will accept to end, and also, we should take care of all labor involved.

The economy for the ICE is too big to let it end. Many people leaves from this industry. Just imagine, each year, it is produced around 55m vehicles world wide with and increase of 3.5 % so for 2030 will be produced around 90m vehicles with ICE.

We must considered that this technology requires continues part replacement, due the the wear produced as a result of the type of technology (Friction and Heat), in such way that it produces more economy related to the part replacements than the proper original part (OE).

So the ICE will be kept for long years to come.

Здравейте, според мен двигателите с вътрешно горене ще има дотогава, докато има запаси от въглеводородни горива и докато не са стигнали прага на достатъчно големи замърсители на околната среда. Вече в големите градове се забелязва тенденция на забраната им за движение, като по този начин се лансира употребата на хибридни автомобили и електромобили, съответно и тяхното производство.

Поздрави!

д-р. инж Явор Иванов

Hi all,

I think that the internal combustion engines still play a important role in our modern society, and will continue to power the vehicle, ship, station generator and so on for the next decades.

How do they want to provide the electricity needed for the hybrid? Internal combustion engine

The good choice for land vehicles, perhaps also for some aircraft applications, could be Hybrids, puere electric vehicles will induce a load on power generation and grid systems hard to assess and to solve, besides 'battery' technology needs to be improved, sources of materials suitable for battery making are not unlimited.

Please don't forget in an Hybrid powertrain scenario, External Combustion Engines may have a niche.

End of Combustion Engines is difficult to impossible, an EU authority recently acknowledged this, facilities for charging pure electric vehicles are not available in the wilderness, improvements in emissions, specially in Greenhouse gases, could be nil, if oil derivatives' burning is just shift from Vehicle Engines to Electric Centrals, a hotter world will mean a less windy world, bad for renewable electric sources, see a recent NYAS Annals on environmental sciences; in some places, CO2 emissions with a pure electric fleet will be worse than with current ICEs, the connection between electrification and CO2 emissions per mile is a region-dependent issue, local assessments are always to be done.

Reductions in oil consumption will reduce income in Oil Exporting Countries, a recession there will trigger a recession in the industrialized countries, bad for all, as it would be bad a huge reduction in barrel price.

Let's see what happens, technology advances are impossible to forecast, and will radically change the better accounted estimates.

Thanks. Salut +

Dear Yasin,

I am adding some more points for interest of auto market and replacement of ICE.

Introduction

Pollutant emissions from internal combustion engines (ICE), which arise from non-ideal combustion, have been dramatically reduced in the past four decades. Emissions depend both on the engine operating parameters (e.g. engine temperature, speed, load, A/F ratio, and spark timing) and the fuel. These emissions result from complex processes involving interactions between the fuel and engine parameters. Vehicle emissions are comprised of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM). VOCs and NOx form photochemical smog in urban atmospheres, and CO and PM may have adverse health impacts.

Engine hardware and operating conditions, after-treatment catalysts, and fuel composition all affect the amount and composition of emissions leaving the vehicle tailpipe. While engine and after-treatment effects are generally larger than fuel effects, engine and after-treatment hardware can require specific fuel properties. Consequently, the best prospects for achieving the highest efficiency and lowest emissions lie with optimizing the entire fuel–engine–after-treatment system.

Specific Challenges-

Problem of pollution, the looming of oil shortage, Hybrid-electric automobile, series hybrid, parelle hybrids, hydrogen fuel cells, production and distribution of hydrogens.

One of the most important problems we face is that cars consume enormous amounts of space. On average, a person in a parked car takes up about 17 times more space than a person in a chair. And when moving, a motorist can take up to 100 times as much space as a person in a chair. Cities are severely diminished by this level of wasteful use of land by cars—particularly in town centers (where space is so dear), and especially in communities such as Boulder, where land is so expensive.

Today’s engines have realized significant improvements in efficiency, emissions, reliability, and durability. Hardware developments such as sophisticated fuel injection equipment, EGR, turbo charging, and complex engine control strategies have made significant contributions to the development of compact and powerful engines.

*****The death of internal combustion engine is electric vehicle.

The future of the automobile is unclear at this point. After a one hundred year reign, the days of the internal combustion engine, as we have known it, appear to be numbered. The twin problems of pollution and potential oil shortages would probably have made a replacement for it mandatory anyway. However, as the number of industrialized nations has grown, and the number of people with the ability and desire to own an automobile has skyrocketed, its replacement by some less polluting auto efficient system has become essential.

The internal combustion engine appears to be on its last lap. More than nine countries and a dozen cities or states have announced what the media has called “bans” in the last few years. Norway will phase out conventional cars by 2025, followed by France and the United Kingdom in 2040 and 2050, India by 2040 respectively. Yet despite all these commitments, no country has actually passed a law prohibiting anything. ”There is literally not a single ban on the books in regulatory language that is enforceable in any auto market in the world.

But the rhetoric is telling carmakers to get ready once the technology is ready. “These governments are signaling to the world that they need to move to zero emission vehicles to meet their climate and air quality goals. The effects are rippling through the auto industry regardless. In the last two years, carmakers have rushed to roll out plans to electrify their vehicles. Daimler will spend $11.7 billion building 10 all-electric and 40 hybrid models with plans to electrify its entire lineup, reports Reuters. Yet it will be decades before these new cars can displace their conventional counterparts. Carmakers must design new vehicles, clear existing stock, and wait for the fleet to turnover as drivers trade-in old cars (in the US, that’s about 11 years).

So thing can be changes by following:

1. Redesign the internal combustion engine by stirling, opposed-piston opposed-cylinder (OPOC)

2. HEV

3. BEV hybrids

4. Renewable hydrocarbons (alcohol)[ethanol and flex fuels)

5. Gasoline-electric hybrid.

6. Biodiesel

7. Propane

8. Natural gas

9. Fuel cells

10. Solar panels

11. Hydrogen fuel cells and appropriate production and distribution of hydrogen’s

Hope article information is helpful for you.

Ashish

Hydraulic caapabilities provide additional efficiency opportunities to ICE including High Power Density Hydraulic Clutch (Transmission, Cooling Fans, Air Conditionning) and Waste Heat Recovery Management Systems.