د. سليمان رجب الشيخ

please see

https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/

The Covid-19 brings the global economy to its knees, but also offers it an opportunity for a fresh start.

"To stop the virus, you have to kill the economy," said an American financial expert. It is the remedy applied by more and more countries. Stock markets plummet, companies shut people down and the economic engine of consumption in developed countries has come to a halt.

https://www.un.org/en/un-coronavirus-communications-team/launch-report-socio-economic-impacts-covid-19

Can't say how much those investment plans will be effective as we have to wait for that but those are very much needed to boost up the economy.

Definitely Covid 19 has come to recreate a lot of things for bussiness to survive post covid things must be reorganised.Investment plan might be part of the things to improve but other areas like human resources must be looked into.The overhead must be looked at critically for reduction purpose to prevent economy from nosediving

Yes, a new deal or societal contract is needed.

Working Paper The Political Economy of Knowledge Automation

I would not speak of a "new deal", but of new business opportunities for all those who ride the waves of "crises".

As the number of infected rise exponentially every day, the COVID-19 pandemic will certainly bring about a major economic recession in 2020. The total economic loss due to COVID-19 is expected to exceed $4 trillion, almost 5% of the global GDP as per Asian Development Bank, and these seem only conservative estimates. But we will recover from the health crisis of COVID-19 - maybe with a drug in a few months or with a vaccine in a little over a year. In this moment of crisis lies a new opportunity to permanently change the oil bill and pollution cost of Indian economy, forever. The global lockdown opened vistas for a generation of startups which could enable offices and public gathering in general to go online.

@Renaud Di Francesco

Didn't tell how effective these investment plans will be as we have to wait for any of that, but also to help the economy, these are somewhat deemed necessary.

Interesting question Renaud Di Francesco . Too early to tell, but this seems to me to be a pattern after most exogenous shocks. As consumer spending (two thirds of GDP) and spending by private companies (that normally lags consumer spending) is still shock, fiscal spending or spending by government, kicks in to "jolt economic activity" from slumber.

International concerns about the virus (COVID-19) are increasing, especially as it has caused significant human losses that countries have not expected, with different capabilities and strategies, and the biggest concerns are those related to the economic decline and the expected losses if the appropriate vaccine is not available in the fastest time.

People in the world must go life, no exception is massive investment in the economy.

Excellent for governments around the world to be putting investment plans to reboot the world economy.But what i don't hear about are risk management plans should there be a phase 2 of the virus or the resurfacing of another pandemic in a few years down the line.2 lessons governments and private sector could take from the recent Covid19 pandemic is that digitization is here to stay and risk management must be a priority for any entity.

The Global Economy does not have any other choice than to embrace stimulus programmes and expansionary capital and investments plans. And how are the sovereign governments financing the stimulus programmes ? Simply, through deficit budgeting, government borrowing, minting additional quantities of national currencies - which transforms into indirect taxation and redeemed by the citizenry. At least one country in Africa has already devalued its currency. Interestingly, a larger section of the society believe that governments just go to the treasury a dig out USD$2 Trillion in the USA to finance stimulus programmes or the N2.3 Trillion in Nigeria for similar purposes. No. The financing of stimulus packages is more of an aggregation of resources being diverted to the various government intervention to saving the affected sovereign economies from imminent collapse. These economic reasonings are appropriately drawn from the Keynesian economics and duly applied in the 1930s in resolving similar recession. There is nothing wrong (at all) in adopting these measures and in resorting to public borrowing in managing economy in preventing collapse

as long as they are judiciously utilised. This explains Keynes sayings that governments should be courageous enough to borrow now and solve tomorrow's economic problems facing the society (in the short term) because if government fail to borrow to reverse recession - it is mostly likely that in the long run all men (all the people are dead). No apologies, this commentator is a Keynessian Economist and Government Finance Statistician. Lord Keynes economic hypotheses remain superior. Thanks

The basic truth is that coronavirus is most likely to linger from 2020 to 2021 or slightly longer. There are local herbs in Africa that are subduing coronavirus disease but these are not readily certified by the orthodox medical practitioners and the World Health Organization. I can not discuss for personal reasons and give it without well secured contractual agreements. The implication of the current status of coronavirus is that in the near future, the disease will be treated like malaria; it is not as deadly as the EBOLA (fatality rate of ebola is much higher and more deadly) but the scientists must redouble their efforts in providing widely acceptable cure if not the prevailing public health and economic crisis is almost staying, unfortunately. There is need to develop preventive drugs - not necessarily vaccines.

Covid-19 brings Global Economy to its knees but simultaneously it is giving new lessons of life. It is bringing new opportunities to a country like India to stands up in preparation for newer challenges. More and more companies would like to leave China and this is providing opportunities to Asian countries to welcome them with an open hand for the revival of their economy. Indian have huge opportunities in the area of pharma, technology, software etc.

India has the packages like USA, U.K. and France. Yes a part is for increasing the consumption, particularly rural India. India has announced many policy changes which will factilitate access to credit by MSMEs, unshakling of agriculture for the first time, Push for highways, housing, housing for immigrant labor, support for agri infrastructure, micro food processing and many others like unshakling coal sector, support to discoms, support for PF payments by industries during the lock down. All these would accelerate the economic activity in the medium and long term.

The current pandemic of COVID-19 has generated an undoubted global economic impact, to encourage debate we wish to share the following manuscripts.

Article Economy or Health, Constant Dilemma in Times of Pandemic: Th...

Article Enfermedad por Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): ¿Prevalecerá la ...

Though most stock markets (and oil prices) have nosedived recently, the transitory effects will have prolonged impacts on economies and companies’ earnings because of Covid-19 pandemic and health crisis.

This is also evidenced by the fact that the Fed decreased very recently interest rates to zero levels and the markets keep nosediving. This is an indication that markets are already far sighting and factoring the long-term impacts of current world events because of Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant health crisis.

I am afraid, but current world events will have major impacts on countries and companies’ earnings, which will definitely led to many bankruptcies worldwide.

The recovery from the economic impact of the Covid-19 health crisis will take lot of efforts and prolonged period of time.

I believe there will be potential and key research studies on the financial regulatory ecosystem as related to the Covid-19 health crisis.

For instance, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) that coordinate financial rules and regulatory issues as related to the G-20 economies has issued lately reports to address the financial stability implications of Covid-19.

This is the link to their latest reports:

https://www.fsb.org/

Best regards

Prof. Dr. Mazin A. M. Al Janabi

Full Professor of Finance & Banking and Financial Engineering

EGADE Business School, Tecnologico de Monterrey,

Santa Fe Campus, Mexico City, Mexico.

Professor Dr. Mazin Al-Janbi - you made vital points. The bankruptcy of individuals and households, as well as corporate insolvencies for incorporated entities and sovereign/sub-national government distress, are likely to become the order of the immediate future and post-COVID 19 periods. There is the need for different sovereigns to suitable domestic intervention programmes and projects that suit their environments and ecosystems. Financial distress rescue management strategies that may work in Country X is not likely to solve the economic problems of country Y and so forth. Contingency approaches and prudence in the management of the available financial/economic resources is key. Huge pity for those countries that indulge in corrupt practices as a way of life - it's going to be rough and tough and tumbling.

There seems to be a macro-phenomenon onto the age pyramid in many countries: the elderly population has been hit more by the virus, but the younger have been hit more than others by the economic crisis, often not finding a first employment, compared with data of previous years on entry in the job market.

Some countries have acted on this by implementing measures geared towards the yonger part of the work force.

What's your analysis of this issue?

A virus killing more the older population in proportion, but causing an economic crisis more detrimental to the younger population?

Not sure the direction of this preceding question but I wish to comment on it in a little way. The prevailing coronavirus has taught everyone and the leadership of governments that health is wealth; thus population wealth is also the wealth of sovereign states. I feel sorry that life has no duplicate and cannot be duplicated. Most often the intellectuals, specially gifted persons and naturally endowed managers of men and material resources (example Henry Ford) can not be easily replaced. And, there is no accurate method for estimating financial statistical values of great people and senior citizens that we have lost to COVID -19. In this case, there is hope for the living and no more expectations from the deads. COVID -19 has thought everyone not to rely on only one source of income

and in a related situation, I use to advise that there is no unemployment for any well reasoning persons - because in the developing countries, once you are hungry; you are bound to source for a legitimate activity to engage in and get little cash to feed. However, the reverse is the case in developed economies where people can be idle and still get stipends as social benefits. So, it is different strokes for different folks. But I m thinking that it is better to be younger, remaining unemployed and surviving COVID -19 with the hope of getting something doing that the otherwise. Fairly difficult to assimilate

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That is a logical step for most economies Renaud Di Francesco especially given the following:-

Consumer confidence Hermann Gruenwald , I think. If as a consumer, you see people being laid off, why would you make a long term commitment in exchange of a once off "hair cut?"

A new wave of spending to bridge the fall in demand due to the lockdown and pandemic, are being implemented to promote growth. Such spending are on infrastructure, pharmaceutical research, medical devices and logistics. Some countries are giving free handouts to SMEs and individuals to help them to tide over the difficult period.

@Hermann Gruenwald, thanks for your contributions. Interesting to note that Germany has been very successful in keeping the health impact to a minimum (vs France and many others ending the list with Belgium, UK). Now the economic impact is being felt there, following your assessment.

Is there not a shift to be made to online (e-commerce, e-procurement) ? There is a federal recognition that network development needs to accelerate...

Now the time for rethinking and reform the existing policies in all levels.

I Think new deal based purely on politician ideologies and with all harsh neoliberals policies will not be effective. What politicians are doing or planning to do to recover economy still questionable as far as they are not involving researchers/academicians......

Yes, similarly to the previous major economic crises, depending on the functioning model of the state public finance system, there will be a greater or lesser strengthening of the security level of the financial system. In addition, due to the specificity of the current economic crisis caused by the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic (causing the Covid-19 disease), the security of public finances of the state should be strengthened with new instruments and new solutions, because it cannot be excluded that similar crises will repeat themselves in the future . The so-called Anti-crisis shields in the framework of the anti-crisis, interventionist socio-economic policy are only a temporary and short-term action, which means that they will not ensure the security of the state's public finance system in the long term in the context of subsequent economic crises that will probably arise in the future.

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Many thanks for the valuable contributions received so far.

In the current phase, we need to:

1) look ahead, and get the Economy running again

This means first do everything we can to avoid falling back into higher contamination rates. This is why, maybe for the last time, I have revisited my previous articles on context-dependent virus transmission (lock-down, elderly care home, school, election, large events, etc) and reordered the models with increasing number of factors in them, here:

Preprint Agent Based Model for Covid 19 Transmission: -field approach...

INPUT to HOW TO SAFELY restart the economy

2) look back at what happened "economically" (microeconomically) during the lock-down phases we have seen in different countries.

I will propose an article on this soon, reversing the perspective from the Adam Smith free-agent view (me, me, me, my utility, mine, mine) taken by many economist as "the only way"and ask instead: what do we make of hyper-constrained economics between the walls of homes basically?

3) Then a mix: what have we experienced, what have we learnt as something to keep, and what have we learnt as something to drop. Based on this, what are the next possible paths, for each of us, and for the economy.

ANY VIEW?

Perhaps an alternative economic model like the Roosevelt re after the great depression

From the economic perspective, the integration of green programs into recovery plans could better rebuild the way business operate after the pandemic, adopting innovative methods as the case of the so-called doughnut. It comprises an economic model that envisions a world in which people and planet can thrive in the balance based on the SDGs, as stated by its author Kate Raworth: "As we all start thinking about how we will emerge from this crisis, let us seek to be holistic in how we reimagine and recreate the local-to-global futures of the places we live".