I have been modeling and forecasting deaths, death rates, prevalence (active cases) and incidence (new cases) for international countries and U.S. states. Most recently it has been possible to propose safe dates when easing of social restrictions can be gradually implemented.
These can be found in postings (#13 and #12 for weekly updates and #11 for Social Easing) on the following. I invite comments and critiques.
syage-covid19-assessment.com
Dr Jack A. Syage
I had a look at your link and will return to it; fascinating.
I was surprised at the low number of fatalities in China, so looked at the (2nd) link that Dr Ijaz Durrani
recommended:Prem, K., Liu, Y., Russell, T. W., Kucharski, A. J., Eggo, R. M., Davies, N., ... & Abbott, S. (2020). The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health.
. . and followed up the ref. 38 regarding the extreme measures taken; this report was 13 March '20:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-best-response.html
Improving prediction models for future processes related to the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19 disease is currently a particularly interesting issue. The use of e.g. Big Data Analytics analytical platform technology to analyze the scale of the slowdown in the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic by introducing different prudential instruments and anti-pandemic and sanitary security in individual countries is currently an important topic in the context of assessing the legitimacy of the use of individual anti-pandemic security solutions. Similarly, the application of these Industry 4.0 technologies to predict economic effects for specific anti-pandemic, anti-crisis programs under intervention socio-economic, fiscal and monetary policies is currently a particularly important issue in the context of assessing the legitimacy and effectiveness of the programs used and the possibility of conducting comparative analyzes against similar large , global crises, economic recessions, severe recession in the global economy that have occurred in the previous 100 years.
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
With the fluctuating positive cases, restrictions may be extended to another 6 month period.
Since we are dealing with an invisible entity of which scientists are still
learning, then we are unable to estimate risk levels since this Brussels to be mutating and can be spread by people who have no symptoms. When should we gradually reopen businesses etc- when we get a vaccine or else a second wave can arise.
Great replies and thanks for the links. Very useful. Another way of looking at social easing is if the contagion rate was say R0 = 3 (and that is not a constant, but so dependent on environment, population density, culture, etc.) on average, then to relax social restrictions, we would still need to reduce our typical contact rate by 2/3 to get to R0 =1 and no amplification. Maybe not that hard if we just practice better hygiene, e.g., don't shake hands or hug strangers and wash hands frequently.