After the carantine (and the 2-3 month confinement), people from all over the world (especially from Europe) will make new decisions about their residential mobility. Taking into account that families have been confined inside very small houses, often in subhuman conditions, in overcrowded cities: Will this pandemic produce the great exodus of people from the city to the villages? Will immigrants return to their countries of origin with more intensity that before?
Good question, Silvia. In this sense I think it depends on the origin of the immigrant and the living conditions he has. It is very interesting to observe this phenomenon.
Thank you for your kind reply, José David. We will be expecting... We will analyze the phenomenon...
For your first question I would bet my money on the NO answer, though it might take several years to figure out what is going on. My argument (strictly rational and not yet fully confirmed by data) is that urban density did not play a major role in the tragic part of the pandemic. If you look at maps that represent the number of cases you have a scary concentration of victims in large cities. But this is because they have a large population. Now, if you look at the number of cases per capita, and I only know about Italy and Belgium - incidentally no 1 and no3 on the list of mortality/million - you see a mosaic pattern with some ugly dark spots in the territory. Living in the countryside appears NOT to be as safe as it looks. Of course, it is more pleasant to live in a garden in springtime, but some Europeans have to face harsh winters, also they make a living on asparagus... I guess we will see an increase in residential mobility, but it will have a variegated pattern, local conditions might even favor opposite movements for different social groups, some people going out and some others coming in the city for very different reasons.
Thank you very much for your valuable answer and explanation. For instance, in Spain, (according to the few data that are being carried out), there is a certain tendency of the population to seek other alternatives. In Madrid, for example, part of the population plans to leave the city in search of other places of residence close to the city. People obviously think about the new working conditions ... and they also live in fear of possible outbreaks of the virus, and other stages of confinement. It will take time and rigorous research to find out. These are just mere questions and debates in time of COVID.
Silvia,
You have opened up a really big question. We in the UK have seen the highest percentage of deaths in London and Glasgow. But then they are major concentrations of population. Care Homes have been responsible for between one third and one half of all Covid deaths in the UK and I see Sweden is looking into inflated numbers in their care homes. So how will that affect mobility? It may be that more families will wish to keep their elderly parents at home rather than place them in a care home. This would see a return to the good old days when the elderly were cared for at home, as my grandparents were.
As far as younger folk are concerned, there could be a move to much more home working via the internet although there are limits to such. Face to face contact is still going to be essential. This then leads on to the use of public transport, which we all would prefer if it was not so packed out. Certainly biking or walking to work is coming back in. But then that require the workforce to live closer to their work, which in turn would draw people back into the cities.
There are so many more issues, and your question certainly raise many further answers.
Kind regads
George Strachan
George, thank you very much for considering these questions interesting. Thank you very much for taking the time and reflecting on these questions that arise from the existential doubts that we all ask ourselves. As a geographer, I am especially concerned with (in)mobility issue... I totally agree with your reflections and evaluations. Thank you for sharing them. I hope that we are able to adapt to a new model of life, of (in) mobility. The debate is open and only events will help us interpret and analyze the results. Thank you!!!
Human mobility predicts the spread and size of epidemics in China
As of 1 March 2020, 79,986 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in China (Fig. 1A) (7). Reports of cases in China were mostly restricted to Hubei until 23 January 2020 (81% of all cases), after which most provinces reported rapid increases in cases (Fig. 1A). We built a line list dataset from reported cases in China with information on travel history and demographic characteristics (8). We note that the majority of early cases (before 23 January 2020; see the materials and methods) reported outside of Wuhan had known travel history to Wuhan (57%) and were distributed across China (Fig. 1B), highlighting the importance of Wuhan as a major source of early cases. However, initial testing was focused mainly on travelers from Wuhan, potentially biasing estimates of travel-related infections upward (see the materials and methods). Among cases known to have traveled from Wuhan before 23 January 2020, the time from symptom onset to confirmation was 6.5 days (SD = 4.2 days; fig. S2), providing opportunity for onward transmission at the destination. More active surveillance reduced this interval to 4.8 days (SD = 3.03 days; fig. S2) for those who traveled after 23 January 2020.
@ sivia marcu
Humans and social interactions are inseparable. Going forward, Covid 19 will influence human mobility decisions.
Certainly, patterns of residential mobility will change. More middle and high income households will prefer low density residential neighbourhoods with zero risk of overcrowding.
Transport cost will increase. In developing countries with inadequate public transport infrastructure, commuters will pay more for public transport services in order to comply with social distancing rules. This is already happening in many African countries.
The mobility of immigrants will depend on the severity of the recession expected in the post Covid 19 economy.
I do not think that there will be major differences. People quickly forget.
I think, until the vaccine is discovered, people will be very careful. At least in Spain. And people will search for new ways of life in the meantime.
COVID-19 proceeds along the trade arteries and then the capillaries. It's just a matter of time before COVID-19 hits all the villages, and there there is little in the way of medical support or services. There are a number of small towns that have already been very hard hit.
The lockdowns are a different matter. People mostly go to cities for the employment and the parties, and if they stop you are left only with the services - which are not enough to justify paying those high city rents. It is not surprising that all those Indian urban migrants have travelled a thousand km back to their home areas - sometimes by bicycle or on foot.
Bring back the jobs and the parties - and back will come the people.
In Venezuela, Prof. Silvia Marcu, an important amount of vzlan refugees living in countries such as Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are returning.
Thousands wait for the entrance several km from here.
https://www.france24.com/es/20200721-venezuela-migrantes-colombia-retorno-coronavirus
Indeed, immigrants who have returned to their country of origin are either in a precarious situation or they are in the most affected countries.
Silvia,
i have just read an article on the BBC website describing how an asset manager grew to hate her flat in a new block in London. The block had spas, bars, restaurants all vibrant - until Covid. 8 weeks later all was lifeless. She sold and moved to a 5-bedroom house in Hertfordshire in a village and is loving it.
She is only one example of the huge increase in people wanting to get out of the city. The numbers of those moving to rural locations from London has tripled, and much the same is happening across England’s large cities. There are a couple of reasons for such mobility
1. They are now working so much more from home so avoiding commuting.
2. They are safer from Covid infection in sparsely populated rural areas.
However, I assume most of those moving to the countryside are the better-off and well able to make the move.
I am sure you are getting a huge amount of info. now. Wishing you the best in your researches
George Strachan
if it is very possible, the families will return to the villages of origin, seeking better conditions in terms of food and housing, and will have to make decisions on the education of their children according to the level of schooling, that is to say, organize their daily life according to the conditions of the environment where they decide to live
Probably return flows will increase for South-South migration and were there are no so-strong social networks. But, for traditional South-North migration, opportunities are usually higher at destination and made the journey there is to much at stake.
Thank you Prof. George J. Strachan for your valuable thinking. Sincelery,
Silvia Marcu It is very difficult for working class population to restrain them self from going outside.
Md. Israt Hasan I totally agree with you!!! Thank you for your contribution to this discussion.
Silvia,
I hope these three images taken over this summer illustrates clearly the huge changes taking place in city centres. It can be referred to as the “doughnut effect”. The centre is empty while the surrounds are prospering. The BBC this morning were speaking of this on Radio 5 live. The street is in the heart of Edinburgh Old Town and is usually bustling with office staff and tourists. The main law courts in Scotland are there and so the eateries gain from lawyers, advocates and judges eating out.
The courts are closed Due to Covid. Offices are closed with all working at home. Tourists are not coming to the UK due to the virus. Result is a city centre emptied of people. Because most office staff are working from home, they are shopping locally in suburban shopping centres in order to avoid public transport. There is definitely a degree of panic among the population which not going away any time soon. Mind you, the small local out-of-centre businesses are booming.
i hope this is of help to you
George Strachan
Silvia,
I meant to send this pic also. This is the state of the High St today in Edinburgh city Centre. Compare it with what it was this time last year in the 2 above pics.
sorry about that
George
It is very likely that covid-19 will bring about a great exodus, possibility involving people from developed to developing countries seeking more convenient areas for their comfort.
Dear Silvia,
Thanks so much. I am aware of some British expats in Tunisia who refused to go back home because it is no longer safe for them. In my view, this could open more avenues for research on migration and national identities.
I totally agree with you, dear Fathi Bourmeche !!!! Thank you very much for your contribution !!!
Yes Piotr, downgrading has been on for long. Moving from one's country to make more money whatever the job is behind this I believe.
Silvia,
An update on population movements over past 3/4 months. Property prices have soared in rural areas, as the more prosperous section of society in the south an east of England and London seek to move to relatively Covid-free areas of the country such as the Scottish Highlands. Unfortunately it is pricing local buyers out of the market. Unfortunately too, those on low incomes cannot afford to move and are stuck in unhealthy high-rise environments and in areas of poor housing.
George
Dear Dr. George J. Strachan thank you very much for your engagment... This discussion is very important. You are absolutely right... The same things happens in Madrid... Thank you so much for everything!!!
Dear followers of this discussion: I am pleased to inform you about the
Special Issue "Human Mobility and Sustainability in Time of Pandemic"
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability/special_issues/Human_Mobility_Time_Pandemic
I will wait for your contribution (until 31 August 2021)! Thank you for sharing!
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance!
To date, a change on residential preferences and mobility patterns is only an hypothesis point out by real state websites and media. We should wait for new avalaible data, maybe for one or two years. However, there are some available evidence in local surveys. We try to shed ligth on the issue in our latest paper: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616696.2020.1836386
Dear dr. Jose Manuel Torrado thank you for sharing with us your paper!!! Congratulations!!!
It seems to me Civid 19 crisis somehow pushed things between ”social embededness” (integration) and accelerating the ”migration flux” (returning of the vulnerable ones). That is to say current theory alternate between the ”transnational social fields” (Glick-Schiller 1994) and ”transnational social space” (Pries 2001) as well. Hence, I think it is a good opportunity to clarify things. Romanians in Italy and Spain good case studies.
This is an interesting discussion, thank you to all! I'm curious if anyone has come across any research on how Covid has affected the social desirability of shared mobility? Further, I wonder if PTSD might be a factor on using these modes as we enter "normality."
This is an interesting research question. In my own research, I have also studied the problem in the case of countries that issue and receive migration. Experiences are varied. The full study is available (in Hungarian) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346273783_Human_migration_and_the_Pandemic-2020
For some of these countries, the practice is:
Malaysia is home to an additional 100,000 refugee Rohingya who receives low levels of care. They have lost their jobs and livelihoods, so they return to their homeland or start migrating. https://cutt.ly/idRT3gP
According to the research material also represented by the IOM, the real effectiveness of financially supported repatriation can be assessed as inefficient for migrants returning to their homeland. As migrants are poorly reintegrated in their home country, they travel again and appear as potentially infected carriers on migration routes. https://cutt.ly/SdR1oov
Spain has sought to provide quarantine accommodation for foreigners staying in its territory irregularly outside of camp arrangements. Thousands of migrants returned to the territory of Morocco, which was considered disease-free, in the face of restrictions imposed at the national level due to the high degree of virulence, including border controls. https://cutt.ly/bdRFlhs
So far not much has happened. Social scientists hurried, as usual, to draw conclusions about the phenomenon under study. The only thing about mobility is that it is slowed down. So far, none of the migration upheavals have taken place. Human mobility is not a spontaneous process, so it is difficult to predict future drivers of migration.
Dear Prof. Marcu!
This is an excellent question to consider. COVID-19 is still raging, a brand new wave is about to take off in Europe and beyond. The situation has to be monitored and examined all the time:
1) Libal, K., Harding, S., Popescu, M. et al. Human Rights of Forced Migrants During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Opportunity for Mobilization and Solidarity. J. Hum. Rights Soc. Work 6, 148–160 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41134-021-00162-4 Free access: Article Human Rights of Forced Migrants During the COVID-19 Pandemic...
2) A case-study: Irudaya Rajan, S., Sivakumar, P. & Srinivasan, A. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Internal Labour Migration in India: A ‘Crisis of Mobility’. Ind. J. Labour Econ. 63, 1021–1039 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-020-00293-8 Free access: Article The COVID-19 Pandemic and Internal Labour Migration in India...
3) A case-study: Sommarribas, A., Nienaber, B. Migration and mobility of third-country national labour workers to and inside Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic – a legal analysis. CMS 9, 22 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-021-00229-1 Open access: Article Migration and mobility of third-country national labour work...
4) A case-study: Junjia Ye (2021). Ordering Diversity: Co-Producing the Pandemic and the Migrant in Singapore during COVID-19, ANTIPODE, A Radical Journal of Geography, Early View , 19 May 2021, Free access: Article Ordering Diversity: Co‐Producing the Pandemic and the Migran...
5) A case-study: Elin Charles-Edwards (2021). How will COVID-19 impact Australia's future population? A scenario approach, Applied Geography, Volume 134, September 2021, Free access: Article How will COVID-19 impact Australia’s future population? A sc...
Yours sincerely, Bulcsu Szekely
Human Mobility and Sustainability:
To date, I see that most of the comments are about the human mobility side of the original question. What about the sustainability aspect?
Dear Daniele Conversi Please visite my paper: Article Towards Sustainable Mobility? The Influence of the COVID-19 ...
Together with some colleagues we collected data to track restrictions of international travel as part of a project that we called ' Citizenship, Migration and Mobility in a Pandemic' (https://www.researchgate.net/project/Citizenship-Migration-and-Mobility-in-a-Pandemic).
This data can hopefully help answering the broader questions of this discussion. We have published an interactive summary of our findings as a website: www.cmm-pandemic.com. From there you will be able to access the full datasets. We also published a short paper which I enclose.
Thanks a lot for having raised these important questions.
Article Citizenship, Migration and Mobility in a Pandemic (CMMP): A ...
I wonder whether studies have been conducted on total fuel savings, vehicle mileage savings, air and sea travel savings in fuel and travelling due to two years of covid restrictions!
Social migration due to Covid would have definitely taken place had Covid free areas were available. Unfortunately Covid has attacked all over the world with a great intensity. I hope the idea, what would have happened if there were areas which Covid virus could not survive!
I am working on seasonal migration in Albania during Covid-19 pandemic and found out that irregular seasonal workers, as a vulnerable group depending on short-term employment possibilities, tried to adapt in different forms to the new normality, putting aside their health. Especially returned ones in the place of origin tried to find gaps in the limitations protocols to move again, followed irregular routes of migration, adapted to the scarce possibilities of employment in the country of origin or worked as daily workers to Montenegro as a border country. Any other case study confirming this? Thank you for the literature recommendations Silvia Marcu Lorenzo Piccoli Bulcsu Szekely
Hi Dr Silvia Marcu . Kindly see the RG link: Article Human mobility behavior in COVID-19: A systematic literature...
See the following useful RG link: Article Human mobility impacts on the surging incidence of COVID‐19 in India
See Kindly also the following RG link: Article Change of human mobility during COVID-19: A United States case study
Dear Ms. Kopliku!
I found resources you might want to look at:
1) Aktas, E., Bergbom, B., Godderis, L. et al. Migrant workers occupational health research: an OMEGA-NET working group position paper. Int Arch Occup Environ Health (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-021-01803-x Open access:
Article Migrant workers occupational health research: an OMEGA-NET w...
2) Vosko, L.F., Spring, C. COVID-19 Outbreaks in Canada and the Crisis of Migrant Farmworkers’ Social Reproduction: Transnational Labour and the Need for Greater Accountability Among Receiving States. Int. Migration & Integration (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-021-00905-2 Free access:
Article COVID-19 Outbreaks in Canada and the Crisis of Migrant Farmw...
3) Borras, S.M., Franco, J.C., Ra, D. et al. Rurally rooted cross-border migrant workers from Myanmar, Covid-19, and agrarian movements. Agric Hum Values (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-021-10262-6 Open access:
Article Rurally rooted cross-border migrant workers from Myanmar, Co...
Yours sincerely, Bulcsu Szekely
Dear colleagues. We are all in a new normal. Before us is a brave new world, with its own rules. What used to be the norm has become the exception. And the exception is the norm. People will live in a more human-sized environment, outside the big cities. To work remotely. Less travel around the world. This is also the environmental agenda. In this way, serious social changes are fixed at the level of public consciousness.
Ultimately, it will be a question of whether the COVID-19 pandemic truly becomes endemic or whether new variants require constant adaptation/restriction of mobility (in all its facets). The latter will most likely make rural life more attractive, especially for those with persistent social ties to the countryside (e.g. family, relatives, recurrent holiday visits in the past, etc.).
Based on a cursive review of similar historical phenomena, the human disposition to discount negative experiences (degraded to past events), and already signs in the American/ Canadian West of recent relocated urbanites fatigue with the cultural boredom of a rural pastoral, its doubtful this plague's byproduct of rural in-migration will actually add more than a spike in longer term pattern. This is especially the case in the context of amenity and lifestyle migrations having shifted in the past decade or so to multi-local dwelling, especially for those with comparatively significant discretionary wealth, and the less well-off being shut out of relocation by the higher and still increasing cost of so-called rural living.
In Serbia, in times of pandemic, and currently ongoing, we experience the unexpected return of people (Gastarbeiter migrant community) after a number of years of living and working in foreign countries - Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, etc. mostly because of the lack of health and social protection, and because of losing their jobs mostly linked to "grey economy".
Prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, research generated five key insights concerning mobility restrictions in the context of public health emergencies. In this new article, we show how this knowledge can be used in combination with seven new data sources to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the governance of mobility, migration, and citizenship.
Article Restricting Human Movement During the COVID-19 Pandemic: New...