With countries already falling short of their commitments to combat climate change, there are further signs of concern. Although countries domestically are taking climate change more seriously, there is no high-level political leadership on this issue. There is still no sign of multilateral commitment to act. Should not health community to take a longer term view, where actions that target climate change and health today will reduce the global burden of ill-health in the future?
Hi Syed,
I tend to agree that Climate Change is one of the most important threats for humanity, which might hit us during this century quite severely. To answer to your specific question whether countries are taking action to reduce their impact on Climate Change, as always, some countries do and many don't. Recently some statistics were released on global CO2 emission trends for 2014. It seems that the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) emitted significantly more CO2 than ever before in their history of development. Especially Brazil, India and China show an increased industrialization, with China strongly in the lead. Russia provides especially China, with the (fossil) energy resources to grow (and hence emit) further. According to me none of these nations will try to stop this evolution, simply because their populations for the first time in their histories, smell the benefits of strong economic growth.
Some European countries try to make the balance between growth and a reduction in CO2 emissions. Until know this has resulted in less economic growth. Only when durable energy resources become cheaper than fossil or nuclear ones, will it be possible for the old industrial nations to compete with fossil fuel driven economies. This will still take some time to develop the technology, to foster this breakthrough. One might see Germany as the leader of this approach in Europe. Until that technological turning point has been reached, a business as usual scenario will keep on dominating economic policy and the engines of industry (energy production) in many other countries.
So I am pretty pessimistic about the evolution of Climate. I think we will come to experience more of what we can already measure and experience right now and right here on Earth. The day that arctic polar ice will disappear from the Earth's North Pole during summer is coming real close now. 10 or 20 years from now? At that time world population will have grown to about 8 billion souls. Since we cannot feed all these mouths right now, how will we be able to feed them 20 years from now, with an expected further degradation of terrestrial agricultural systems and a further reduction of agricultural land, by erosion, salinification, drought, floods, heavy rains and hail, and a rising sea level. For convenience i forget here about here about the loss of agricultural land due to nuclear incidents, like that in Tchernobyl and Fukushima, both in areas with very fertile soils. These areas will never be used again for agriculture without the risk of increased cancer incidence.
Will humanity ever realize that it will not be able to cope with all these threats, when they become reality. In the meantime local and regional wars, religeously inspired or just to claim areas with lots of natural resources, take more attention of the international community, than the necessary research and measures to be taken to combat Climate Change. Billions of dollars are wasted in this way, which could have been injected in R&D with the purpose to avoid the destructive impacts we can expect from an increase in Climate Change.
The IPCC with its reports shakes us awake on regular moments in time, but this does not inspire the nations gathered by the UN, to make progress in binding measures for every nation on this globe, to take action and make progress in the War against the beginning of the end. We don't know when this beginning of the end will come into being, but it might very probably be during this century and maybe even in its first half.
I am sorry Syed, but I don't have a very hopeful message to send you. I only hope that some of my predictions do not become reality.
Cheers,
Frank
Hi Jörg,
Thanks for the interesting suggestion to read the book published by Mike Hulme. I'll try to get hold of it and read Mike's analysis. One is never to old to learn.
Cheers,
Frank
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