Maybe the effect of climate change is more on yield and quality variability than on mean yield. Models suggest our climate with global warming is having more extreme weather. The biggest issues are heat and drought but heavy storms are also a concern. Stability of yield is important particularly for subsistence farmers. To address the issues we must make changes in our systems and management tactics. In many areas winds flatten the banana and plantain crops such issues might be addressed by dwarf cultivars windrows to some extent. Many issues related to drought can be addressed by increasing soil organic matter which will also help counter act over enrichment of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases.

Devastating impact on Agricultural Productivity.

Dear Titus

This question is bolloging in many researchers and policy makers. Though I have not worked on the issue due to paucity of opportunity. However I wish that some spatial modelling exercise can be undertaken based on some real either collected through controlled experimentation using different climatic condition specially considering precipitation and temperature or field based experiments. The selection of indicators would be really a tactical issue and location specific as you also mentioned. Efficient instruments may also be required to collect some data. Moreover working with significant variable would be again a critical issue however may be modelled based on Factor Analysis or ANN.

Regards

Rajiv

Climate models suggest higher temperatures from global climate change may result in more climatic extreme. Higher temperature would increase frequency and severity of droughts for instance. The higher temperatures would stimulate higher frequency and severity of hurricanes and typhoons. The higher temperatures could affect plants by having more cycles of insect pests and allowing tropical diseases to spread to temperate areas. The less conclusive winter freezing will allow higher early insect and pathogen attacks. If higher temperatures stimulate decay the organic levels of soils may be decreased with its potential to negatively affect production platforms. One of the biggest examples of potential effects is the cereal grain of oats. This crop is very sensitive to high temperature at pollination period and the zones that traditionally were well adapted are moving to more polar zones. Areas which are low lying islands and coastal areas would be affected by shrinking ice raising sea levels.

Excellent view from Dr. Paul Hepperly! The scarcity and drying up of water bodies as a result of climate change will raise serious problems for the irrigation of crops.

On the other hand, soil erosion in diverse forms would sweep away the essential soils that should have ensured/enhanced plant growth leading to low or poor crop yield.

In addition, the sour effects of climate change can eventually lead to the submerging and destruction of farmlands by the angry heavypours of rain (flooding etc.) as has been reported in some areas (with high anthropogenic activities that raise the carbon levels).

@ Dr.Paul and Dickson, thanks for the justification provided to support the evidence of climate change and crop yield

Since much of the issues with climate change in agriculture is related to the periodic fluctuations in water relations. The soil especially the soil organic matter serves to mitigate the effects of moisture fluctuations. Our modern agriculture has causes a loss of the majority of soil organic matter in cultivated soils. The replacing of the lost organic matter buffer the effects of climatic change on agriculture and works to counteract the source of climate changes which is greenhouse gases. While new approaches to climate change include making clouds more reflective, covering ice masses to prevent their disappearance all of these are highly experimental with unknown side effects. The replacement of loss soil organic matter does not have these unknown elements.

Climate change has already affected agriculture, which is expected to worsen the global food output, both directly and indirectly. Observable challenges such as increase in mean temperature; changes in rainfall patterns; changes in water availability; frequency and intensity of extreme events, sea level rise and salinization, and perturbations in ecosystems would have severe impacts on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.

Dear Titus,

Climate change can impact negatively on crop productivity. You are very correct by observing that other factors like soil condition, crop variety, etc. are also responsible for low crop yield. However, I will like to draw your attention to the climate-soil nexus. Climate change can impact negatively on soil conditions by driving processes like erosion and drought, and when soil conditions are affected adversely, the productivity of crop varieties that would have thrived in such soils under normal conditions, can be negatively affected.

You are totally right, the doubt regarding the effect of other factors is existing, however, the modeling has been developed so much to include some of these factors. In addition, the simulation experiments also should include such these factors. Finally, climate change will affect also some or all of these factors,it will effect on soil and crop varieties hence management practices will also be changed due to this.

Heba Y. Elbasiouny Uzoma Darlington Chima thanks so much.

The points you have mentioned are also limiting factors for reducing crop yield. Therefore, improving crop varieties, better agronomic practices are also required to increase crop yield in line with the increasing population.

You can read the attached paper where we have mentioned this issue. Farmers all responses are not directly linked with climate change. (Page 59, Last Para.)

Cilmate change affects the yield of crop but others factors like mechanisation, selection of variety also affects the yield ...moreover agronomic practices is also responsible for crop yield

I have general interest in this area. What I saw in Indian situation both extreme hot and cold type of climate prevails with seasonality- extreme flood alternating with draughrs. That is detrimental to agriculture. But, the resultant impact of global warming is visible at the polar regions. We see large scale ice melting at Antarktika.

The maldive islands are the area most endangered by sea level rise. In the United States issues are becoming apparent in Florida Louisiana and the Carolinas. The recent hurricane Florence is a prime example devastating crop and animal production. While top and mean yields might be unchanged the wild fluctuations in severe events are the most disturbing. In the Indian subcontinent it is getting extremely more difficult for populations in Bangladesh. When glacier masses in Himalayan regions become extinct the sources of major rivers with over 2 billion souls depend upon with become increasingly precarious. Humanity goal needs to both adapt and make transformational changes which can reverse the climate change scenario. It is unlikely we will be able to see any real change in our lifetime but the seeds of change can be planted for our future generations.

Titus Adeyemi Alonge, In order to understand the Climate Change dilemma, we need to reframe our inquiry from what we have been indoctrinated to believe within the colonial 2-dimensional 'agriculture' (Latin 'ager' = 'field) framework to the way the biosphere is inherently designed under all humanity's 100s of 1000s of years ancient 'indigenous' (L 'self-generating') 3-D Polyculture Orchard (Multi-level, diverse mixed-plant led by the tree) heritage. We need to understand the role of Polyculture photosynthesis as a massive worldwide 'energy-storage' capacity, which mediates all of the present problems associated with climate-change. 'SYLVALIZATION' (L 'sylva' = 'tree') 3-D Polyculture Orchards are 100 times (10,000%) more productive than 'civilization's' ('city-state') 2-D 'agriculture' (L 'ager' = 'field'). Polyculture photosynthesizes 92 - 98% of solar energy converted into food, materials, energy & water-cycle. Food production as the foundation for all human economy, its absolutely important that; farmers, agri-business corporations, universities, government policies & all aligned food systems begin to align with & benefit from the abundance of tree-based production. 'Exogenous' (L 'other-generated') oligarch-led colonialism is based in total misinformation based in usurping indigenous sovereignty through false science. We need to understand the problem of false-science as well as the solution of holistic-science. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/structure/6-holistic-science https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/home/9-undoing-false-science

Agriculture only photosynthesizes 2 - 8% of solar energy reflecting some 95% back into the troposphere where it pushes winds from the continent to the sea. At the Sahara/Sahel Latitudes of less than 30 degrees north, the sun is so vertical & hot at the summer solstice that; it burns 2-D agriculture. Tree roots descend 10s of metres as deep as the canopy into the earth's substrate where they mine minerals, pump water & develop nutrient extensive colonies. Continental cold spots created through complete photosynthesis cause warm moist ocean winds to be drawn inland (warm to cold) where 60% of moisture transfer is through condensation of warm moisture laden wind onto trillions of square kilometres of fractal leaf & bark surfaces. Only 40% of water is transferred as rain/snow. 'Agriculture' 2-8% photosynthesis reflects 95% of solar energy, which pushes winds from the continent towards the sea causing permanent desert. Sahara, Gobi, Atacama etc. deserts are all created by human agriculture including exploitation of animals such as domesticated goats, sheep, cattle, pigs etc. All animal & plant species have constructive productive 'wild' (originally 'willed' = 'having will') roles in Polyculture. Indigenous peoples worldwide did not exploit domesticate animals but lived in collaboration with these other tree & biosphere tending specialists. Humanity's abundant distributed indigenous Polyculture Orchards, as diverse intelligent energy systems, resolve all climate-change problems of hurricanes, tsunami, tornado, drought, flooding, heat-wave, quick-climate-fluctuations & scarcity. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/design/1-indigenous-welcome-orchard-food-production-efficiencies

In order to resolve the oligarch-commanded artificial colonially created dilemma, we must as well understand humanity's indigenous interdisciplinary economic & governance systems. www.indigenecommunity.info

Well i wish to give a try to answer your question. We can create a control environment where all other biotic and abiotic factors shall be kept in check, eg. fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation and other management practices except climate. The obtained yield should be compared with the farmers crop yield, so that the real impact of climate can be segregated. Also, the different crop models like DSSAT, INFOCROP can also be used to employed for the same.

when we talk about climate change, it is evident that rainfall comes first. Therefore, a change in one of the ago-meteorological parameters can really affect crop yields. This can be tested at green house conditions or field experiments (using control factors/limiting factors, example - irrigation

haI’ll in my point of view variation in temperature in addition to rainfall affects climate

Hello All. I am working on Climate Resilient Agriculture using Remote Sensing and GIS. We estimate the crop acreage, crop health using high resolution satellite imagery. But we want to develop a methodology which would consist of climate change related parameters. I request you give some valuable outputs so that I could develop my research multi-dimensionally. Paul Reed Hepperly

As you said factors responsible for low crop yield also include Soil condition, Crop varieties and Management practices. Split these factors and see them one by one. for example Soil processes are greatly depend on climate for their response. Likewise, same variety is not suitable in contrasting climates. And management practices are also site specific. For instance, No tillage is not as suitable in high moist areas as in dry regions. So, you can say climate is a single factor that influence yield directly and also influence the mere tributary factors responsible for crop yields variations.

In my opinion, availability of climatic data (especially, temperature and rainfall data) in the order of higher spatial resolution can open a wide -range of research of climate change impact on agricultural productivity and all. So far, climatic data are limited and having coarser spatial resolution which are not able to make sense for precision research work.

Veris infrared analyzers can be used to map fields for soil organic matter soil pH and electro conductivity.. By making precision maps the problems areas can be targeted and mitigation strategy targeted. This gives reduction of total input and increase in yield quality uniformity. Veris has turn key machinery available out of Salina Kansas United States. Such technology will be useful for mitigating the issues related to global warming by targeting areas for carbon sequestration and eliminating nonproductive inputs.

Attached please find the soil organic matter analyzer with map generation. This analysis allows the input be put where there is return on the investment and eliminates to applications which would not make dollars and sense.

healthiness of crop depends on some many factors which include soil itself and climatic conditions. As you said you need to impart with climate data I think four climate data want to be included; Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity and Wind. In related to this element I also think you need a daily data and you also need to read from existence literature which has direct impact and then focus on it.

Hope my little idea will assist you

Hello Titus,

That's a difficult thing to prove - you need a lot of data on climate and crop yields for a particular zone. Scientist have done this, with varying success - attached are some examples for Nigeria.

But why do you want to prove that? We know that yield is affected by extremes (e.g. drought, high temperatures) and we know these are increasing in some places, so it's reasonable to link the two.

What is more important is to help farmers adapt to extremes or diversify to different crops. There are plenty of studies on the former for a wide range of crops.

I agree with Peter: This is really, really difficult. Ideally you would need the same cultivar cultivated in the same place in exactly the same way for at least 20 years, but there are few places in the world where this happens. The IPCC's 2013 AR 5 Working Group 2 report (free on-line) has a lot of examples of climate change impacts on agriculture, but confidence is rarely given as high under the strict IPCC rules.

Maybe the effect of climate change is more on yield and quality variability than on mean yield. Models suggest our climate with global warming is having more extreme weather. The biggest issues are heat and drought but heavy storms are also a concern. Stability of yield is important particularly for subsistence farmers. To address the issues we must make changes in our systems and management tactics. In many areas winds flatten the banana and plantain crops such issues might be addressed by dwarf cultivars windrows to some extent. Many issues related to drought can be addressed by increasing soil organic matter which will also help counter act over enrichment of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases.

Paul Reed Hepperly Sir

I went through the website of Veris technologies.

Their on the go instrument seems promising

for finding the precise details of soil properties of the arable land.

But would such technologies be cost effective for small and marginal farmers?

Like in India, a majority of farming community comes under the category of small and marginal having land holdings just around 1-2 hectares.

as these are sophisticated tools, which would be costly, & bringing them in public domain from the research institutions might be tough, pertaining to the local conditions here.

https://www.veristech.com/the-sensors/iscan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=11&v=hNmeNFc9vXo

When dealing with low capital environment I believe the mapping of zones related to soil can be identified using bioindicator species. In Puerto Rico before the advent of the sensing technology I learned the acid soil toxicity and alkaline micronutrient deficiency in a very old depleted oxisol with highly variable soil pH. These areas were flagged and I could have sulfur applied to alkaline areas and lime to the acid areas. This works to help reduce the natural variations with an ability to get more uniform and higher productivity. Another approach for smaller farmers is developing cooperatives where the inputs can be applied through the coop by equipment sharing.

The species I used as the bioindicator was sorghum which is small seeded and gives a soil indication early in the crop cycle. I took advantage of the sorghum crop as cover crop at the same time I was identifying and rectifying the soil issues.

availability of climatic data (especially, temperature and rainfall data) in the order of higher spatial resolution can open a wide -range of research of climate change impact on agricultural productivity and all. So far, climatic data are limited and having coarser spatial resolution which are not able to make sense for precision research work.

Climate changes specially temperature affects negatively crop yield rather than biomass production of the crop. So I think the point here that is more affected is biomass partitioning. Because CO2 increment will increase biomass production of C3 plants but not necessary their yield.

Desertification may lead to the migration of people from their places of residence to another place where they can live

In North America the production of a tropical origin crop like maize has been continually being adapted farther and farther into Northern areas and the maize and soybean belt so central to the central United States now includes southern Canada. The adaptation is favored by the breeding and selection of short duration varieties. In terms of the old Southern United States varieties which would take up 120 to 140 days for maturity the latest high latitude varieties can mature in just 70 to 90 days an amazing transformation.

The ability for crops to flourish is mostly related to fluctuating water conditions. About 80% of all crop insurance is for drought, wind and drought damages. The use of techniques which stimulate a more diverse crop and animal production system and focuses on the soil organic matter is the way to both mitigate these damages and also counteract excess atmospheric greenhouse gas contents. When soil organic matter is increased the increase in carbon and nitrogen is being the consequence of photosynthesis and work to counteract and not contribute to the atmospheric oxidized carbon sink. Carbon is linked to water in the plant and in the soil as soils are depleted the soil water dynamic is disturbed and depleted as it is increased the water dynamics are improved. In order to do this the agricultural system needs to focus on the soil and monitor for soil organic matter levels which become targeted from their improvement. At 5% or more soil organic 100 dry units of soil can absorb over twice its dry water in water at 1% or less this water capacity of the same 100 dry units of soils is less than 30. This enormous difference is a key to allowing our productions in our fields to become more drought proofed. These concepts need to put into demonstration education and policies.