No matter how precise your modelling of climatic change using GIS and RS tools, it is impossible to prevent it because it is the result of co-action of natural and anthropogenic factors. It is a challenge for human beings to prevent climtic change. To date, man is nothing to natural systems. We have found that there still is a long way to precise weather forecast today.
In my opinion, we can not prevent climate from changing even if we, human, have advance technologies which treat environment pleasantly. What we can do for this problem is only helping decline rate of this change because human plays role in accelarating this events faster only. However, global climate will go on aggravating even if human have done nothing but with very very slow rate because it is a cycle of the earth. Moreover, as long as we keep on comsuming a huge of energy to facilitate our lifes, human can not balance concerning factors at all. One thing I am quite concerned about is that global climate change becomes a culprit of other anomalous phenomena in the world although it might have no correlation at all. We need to carefully consider what is related to it and what is not related at all.
we predicted as so early by RS and GIS but we we are not planning to how to control.....
GIS and RS is mainly used for planning, monitoring and representing the one time situation. For any prediction we need series of events in past which throw up a certain pattern. But the weather events which we are experiencing now are not showing a pattern which can be used to predict future climate. Weather pattern have many spikes in it. Also, Climate change which is we are experiencing is not the result of activities which we did recently, it is the effect of activities which we did way back. There is a delay in the whole process. So we can build scenarios, but cannot predict.
I read a study about using GIS and remote sensing techniques as a way to detect climate change.
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are a really powerful tool to manipulate, plot, analyse and model geographically referenced data from different sources. GIS can be used in a very large number of disciplines and subjects, but I am afraid they cannot be directly used to prevent anything, included climate change. They can mostly be used in planning and management.
On the other hand, Remote Sensing, especially in its applications to atmospheric, oceanographic and geological/geophysical studies, can certainly help understanding some processes under way in relation to a certain temporal and spatial scale and resolution. But, even Remote Sensing techniques alone cannot tell anything about climate changes, cause they give you an idea of what it is happening “hic et nunc”. To be able to prevent climate change, we must be able in the first place to understand what was before, before major human impacts adding to the normal evolution of climate cyclic fluctuation. To do that we need long time series of data on different time scales, to understand global but also regional and local situations. And of course we need to know and understand what is happening at present time. When we have all this bunch of data we can use different techniques, to model the potential evolution of the climatic situation, to forecast the different scenarios and to try to understand which of these scenarios are the most likely to happen. Only when we can figure out all this things we can try plan some activities and make some choices to mitigate the effects of global changes, and potentially reduce the rate at which the “things” are changing, especially due to anthropogenic activities.
Prediction is a hasle because there are more variables than equations we know in the system. For example, still it unclear the conexion among climate change and Milankovich cycles, solar cycles or ENSO. We can not even predict accurately in advance ENSO.
After reading all of posts, I am enthusiastic to add my view again to answer your question.
In my opinion, it is the fact that Remote Sensing including GIS technique play an crucial role in earth observation rather than other objectives. We have gotten a huge of benefit from them. However, the true benefit of these techniques is how to use them for making a movement in the world. For example, we knew that sea level rising from satellite images and we made use of this evidence to raise awareness of people especially in island countries and then it become global issue eventually. You may consider how to make use of it rather than what they provide in term of scientific. Maybe by considering on this way, remote sensing including GIS are the most powerful tools to slow down climate from changing fast.
No matter how precise your modelling of climatic change using GIS and RS tools, it is impossible to prevent it because it is the result of co-action of natural and anthropogenic factors. It is a challenge for human beings to prevent climtic change. To date, man is nothing to natural systems. We have found that there still is a long way to precise weather forecast today.
By my own not scientific opinion is not the challenge to stop some climate changes, but to let them be more natural, so the truth is that people of modern global civilization are so hungry, that is almost impossible to predict what will happen next. So I say if we want to model future scenarios, we have to start with modeling of demography and appeal on people to start living consciously. I believe that only after regulated consume and influence of economists, we can predict the natural global changes.
Yes i am agree with pavan it is possible but we dont know about the right pathway of prevention of this....so we need to going to know about that methods firstly....
I completely agree with M-f Li. Despite our technological advances, the natural systems will do what they will. These systems have been active before man and will continue with or without him. We may have some understanding of what processes are likely or not likely to occur, but stopping or preventing them is an entirely different beast.
In response of Mr Li and Madame Bartlett with all due respect:
Climatic changes are mainly concern to human activities for their life comfort. In comparison to natural vs human influences to change the natural climate, surely we can see the human contribution at higher scales. For example, when we talk about urban heat island and its intensity, it vary from city to city and can vary from 0.5°C to 14°C too. several studies (Oke 1982, Landberg, 1982, Alcoforado and Andrade, 2008; IPCC 2007 etc etc) show that the UHI does not contribute in global warming because it is local phenomenon mainly and purely caused by human activities (alteration of natural land use to built-up area and release of heat into urban atmosphere by consuming energy). On the other hand, the increase in global temperature is also proofed by researchers and scientist as an effect of emission of GHGs in atmosphere. So we can say, that climate change by nature is negligible than anthropogenic fuelled changes.
Regarding the question "can we prevent climatic changes if we predict them using techniques like GIS or the remote sensing techniques" .... all is possible but at the same time impossible. It is because we can't eliminate the urban areas (having 60% of global population) which are emitting 70% of GHGs into the atmosphere; we can't stop our industries which are producing the materials, food etc etc for us and providing us employments ....and so on. But we can take measures to reduce the changes; minimize the effects of GW ... that is only possibility.
To avoid scientific jargon and repeating what everyone is saying; what we see now is a result of what happened hundreds of years ago, we can only adapt to it without reversing it but what we do now will determine what will happen hundreds of years to come. If we use those powerful tools to model what will might happen if our practices are not changed, then we can make a decision to change them so that we prevent those negative effects or just minimize them.
Many limits exist in modeling climate change.
Probably the most important constraints are data availability and quality, selection of time scales and calculation of uncertainty.
Climate change shows its effects on long time horizon (hundreds years) and, at this scale, predictive performance is usually quite poor.
That is because the input data represent a particular realization of the system studied in a specific space-time context in the past – that means that the data could be out-dated and not representative of future trends, especially in long time horizon. Indeed, the economic policy is relevant only on short time horizon, the rural development plans or climate agreements can be changed periodically ,according to the government in charge or the economic situation of the Country, etc…
So, modeling is a useful tool to represent complex systems, but it is not a perfect answer machine – in the modeling framework one has to point out the uncertainty of the simulation to provide a more consistent output and guarantee transparency.
To reply to the question, I’d like to suggest that a GIS is not enough to model a complex system; you have to try to develop an Integrated assessment tool (IAM) in order to represent in a comprehensive way, all the economic, environmental, social,… factors that contribute to the evolution of the system and their feedbacks.
In this way you can create a policy optimization tool, which can be an useful help in predicting ex-ante the relations between climate change, economic losses, social and environmental damages , in order to promote a more sustainable development and to suggest cost effective policies.
I agree it is a very complex topic to deal with But we need to address it at all cost because it is already causing mayhem on earth. Just see what it will do to the food chain if not addressed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjtIl5B1zXI&goback=%2Egde_1823368_member_177701611
Ladies and gentlemen, nature is a system with climate as a component or a sub system. Man does not know how it came into being and cannot know precisely; but just speculating in the name of scientific research. Because the history of nature is far behind the "modern man" and probably beyond him/her, he may not really be able to make a significant change of it. The climate change issue is as complex as complexity itself.
It has been known that sometime in the past, there was flooding of the entire earth; (believe it or not, the creator could have used it to complete a cycle of the system - based on his own best judgement ) climate was transiting through change at that moment. At a later period, icing was reported; that is, places on earth were covered with snow. By the way, has anyone ever reasoned over the name Greenland? It was once under green vegetation cover; but today where is the greenery? Melting ice today due to climate change reported.
Anyway, climate change is here to stay with man. Unfortunate! Man himself is said to be behind the cause (it might seem so though, I have a contrary opinion - nature is taking its own course). 'Modern man' is just fortunately unfortunate to show up within this period with his 'peaceful livelihood means'. By the way, my teacher (please don't ask for name) made me to understand that there are some bacteria that can multiply up to several hundreds or thousands of generations within a minute. Just imagine if such little creatures were under your armpit passing through that generational transition and suddenly you applied your bathing soap on them in the course of having your bath. What do you thing would be the general opinion of those creatures? "Hey what is this, this has never happened before in this life!". Ask me, how long is their life? Such is the case of man in the climate change saga.
Sure, science has had atmospheric carbon concentration as the culprit. The "developed societies being the greatest actors". So today, the world is of great concern of climate change. The 'actors' even paying to the less polluters not to pollute. Clean energy preachers making great waves; just because today, that is the best solution. Anyway, because man will not be here till tomorrow, he cannot really see the reverse impact of the mitigation measures of today.
In my own opinion, the climate change problem is a natural process. Nature has designed its own course, human activities being part of its component part, just as other natural activities. Think of it, if industrialization or bush burning did not send carbon gases to the atmosphere, volcanic eruption and other natural sources will contribute.
GIS, remote sensing and other technologies can only model or create scenarios to inform man about the changing climate. Policy issues may take steps to mitigate or adapt. I think I belong to the adaptation school of thought- because nature is on its own course. Man can only change himself to suit the seemingly changing state. I said seemingly because I still believe man is too young to have known the number of years that makes eternity. Likewise he cannot know the course of eternity or nature.
WARNING! Let everyone of us change our way of life to suit the changing climatic condition instead of trying to change the changing climate. That is, thinking of adaptive measures. For instance, if you need much water to grow your crops and the rains are no longer sufficient, go for drought resistance species.
I have come to the conclusion that it is impossible to prevent climate change, since
it is impossible to for humans to stop using energy that requires some form of
combustion.
Humans currently consume 18 Trillion Watts of Power. The vast majority is from
combustion. 10,000 years ago, they consumed only enough to stay warm and
cook their meals, and there were only a few hundred thousand Humans.
Combustion involves producing CO2 and H2O from various forms of hydro-carbons.
The increase in water alone is in the cubic kilometers per year range. the change in volume in 10,000 years raised the levels of the oceans by 10's of meters.
The surface area is 70% of 5.1 x 10^14 square kilometers. A change in elevation of only 1 millimeter per year is a change of 0.7 x 5.1 x 10^8 cubic kilometers per year.
That is a change in water volume of 3.57 x 10^8 cubic kilometers per
each millimeter increase in sea level. That is a cube 709.4 km on each side.
Remote sensing provides crucial observations which are used to monitor some effects of climate change on the Earth's environment, while GIS provide really helpful ways to analyze the data. While both cannot prevent the effects of climatic change, they can be used to better characterize how the environment is evolving in response to the recent changes in the Earth's climate. Better characterization and understanding of what is taking place now will, hopefully, provide evidence of what should be done in terms of implementing sustainable environmental policies to curb global warming and its effects.
By weather forecastings and predictions we can know about the natural phenomena, but can never see these natural feneomene unaligned with human activity, which occur at a certain time and place of this globe, or at one segment, zone of our globe, but if we or you are even in Antraktide, you or we are influenced by activities in the committedof humankind, because pollution, damage to the ravages are the product of the activity of mankind, as a source of pollution and thus passed up there, in Antraktide by means of one or more of the pathway, transport environment and Antraktida back host source of these these pollutions, damages to the ravages. Then it is necessary to assess side effects of adverse environmental effects it through objectively verifiable indicators of the environmental impact, to the objectively verifiable indicators of environmental pressure, in order to take concrete measures for minimizing, or reduction of such pollution, damages to ravages.
I agree it, but is a very complex topic to prevent climatic changes if you predict them using techniques, like GIS or the remote sensing techniques.
Prediction of Climate change does nothing to prevent climate change.
We simply need to start planting forests, and stop using coal, gas, and oil
to produce power. This may take a few hundred years.
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Geoscience
- Atmospheric Sciences
- Climate Science
- Climate Change