Experts believe that there may be several scenarios for the development of global changes.

1. Global changes, namely temperature increases, will not be abrupt. The Earth has a mobile atmosphere, and heat energy is distributed throughout the planet due to the movement of air masses. The world's oceans store more heat than the atmosphere. On such a large planet with its complex system, changes can't happen too quickly. Significant changes will take millennia.

2. Rapid global warming. This scenario is considered much more often. The temperature has increased by half a degree over the past century, the amount of carbon dioxide has increased by 20% and methane by 100%. The melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice will continue. The water level in the oceans and seas will be significantly higher. The number of disasters on the planet will increase. The amount of precipitation on the Earth will be distributed unevenly, which will increase the area affected by drought.

3. In some parts of the Earth, warming will change to a short-term cooling. Scientists calculated this scenario based on the fact that the warm current of the Gulf Stream has become 30% slower and can completely stop if the temperature rises by a couple of degrees. This may be reflected by a strong cold snap in the Northern Europe, as well as in the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and in the northern regions of the European part of Russia. But this is only possible for a short period of time, and then warming will return to Europe. And everything will develop according to scenario 2.

4. Global warming will be replaced by global cooling. This is possible when stopping not only the Gulf Stream, but also other ocean currents. This is fraught with the onset of a new ice age.

5. The worst-case scenario is a greenhouse disaster. An increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will contribute to an increase in temperature. This will lead to the fact that carbon dioxide from the world's oceans will begin to pass into the atmosphere. Carbonate sedimentary rocks will decompose with even greater release of carbon dioxide, which will lead to an even greater increase in temperature and decomposition of carbonate rocks in deeper layers. Glaciers will quickly melt, while reducing the Earth's albedo. The amount of methane will increase, and the temperature will rise, which will lead to a disaster. An increase in temperature on the Earth by 50 degrees will lead to the death of human civilization, and by 150 degrees – will cause the death of all living organisms.

Global climate change on the Earth, as we can see, can pose a threat to all of humanity. Therefore, much attention should be paid to this issue. We need to study how we can reduce human influence on these global processes.

The problem of climate change is not a myth, but a reality that should be taken seriously.

At the scale of tens of thousands of years, the Earth is moving towards a cooling – a new ice age, but in the XXI–XXII centuries, global warming caused by human activity is expected. It will be superimposed on natural climate variability – some of the decade could be warmer and some colder.

The main danger is not in warming as such, but in its consequences – the imbalance of climate and weather, which leads to an increase in the number and intensity of dangerous hydro-meteorological phenomena, rising sea levels, melting permafrost, etc.

People, economies and ecosystems need to prepare for such changes based on the specifics of a particular region. It is necessary to understand the role of each person, organization, city and region in the climate problem, as well as to know and implement specific actions that reduce the negative impact of people on the climate (reducing greenhouse gas emissions, soot, forest conservation, etc.), and to minimize damage (adaptation measures).

What exactly awaits us, scientists are not able to say. They make assumptions about the effects of observed global warming based on historical data and using climate models. Forecasts of the situation are alarming.

For oceans and coastal zones

Even more warming will trigger the melting of all the world's ice reserves and an increase in the ocean level by 60 meters. This will lead to flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Due to water oxidation, 20% of marine life will die out. If the temperature increases by 1.5 °C, about 70-90% of corals will disappear, and by 2 °C — 99%.

For land and plants

The consequences of severe global warming are frequent droughts, fires, and floods. If it is not stopped, half of the species of living organisms are at risk of extinction, because the living conditions do not meet their needs. There will be no coniferous trees left on the territory of Siberia. Polar bears, walruses, and Northern fur seals will disappear.

As a result of increasing temperature, rainfall, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide will increase plant growth, especially in the tropical and temperate zones of the Northern hemisphere, the African savanna, the Sahel region will become a region with a monsoon circulation of the atmosphere, and European forests give way to steppes, and the southern part of the continent will be a desert.

For the Earth's atmosphere

The distribution and amount of precipitation will change. The consequence of warming the oceans is the evaporation of large amounts of water, which will increase the greenhouse effect.

In addition, warm air retains more moisture: when the temperature increases by 1 °C, the water vapor content in it increases by 7%.

Extreme weather events on Earth will no longer be a rarity. The strength of the winds will increase. The frequency of tropical storms may decrease, but their intensity will increase. Winter will start later and end earlier.

For humans and all living organisms

Climate change is dangerous for the health of living things. The number of periods of abnormal heat in summer is growing, and more people and animals are becoming victims of it. However, despite the increase in surface temperature, temporary cooling is possible in places.

Climate modeling has shown that melting Arctic ice will disrupt air currents, which will triple the risk of extremely cold winters in Eurasia.

Other effects of increased global warming on living things:

- Areas of distribution, populations, and infectious potential of pathogens will change.

- Severe storms will become more frequent, causing natural disasters: floods, etc.

- Melting glaciers in the mountains will lead to flooding in many places. But in the distant future, the climate will become dry, resulting in a shortage of fresh water, since glaciers are huge reservoirs that feed rivers.

- Due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation, agricultural productivity will decrease.

- Pest distribution areas and populations will increase.

- There will be a shortage of food resources.

- The current state of the climate

People are already feeling the effects of climate change. The measures taken are not enough to improve the situation. Global carbon dioxide emissions, which have the highest global warming potential, continue to increase. In 2018, a new record was set - 33.1 billion tons. What are the risks of inaction, for a special conference to tell the climate scientists.

In the world at large

According to the Lancet report published before the UN climate conference (COP 23), the number of natural disasters has increased by 46% since 2000.

In 2016 alone, the economic damage from them reached $ 126 billion.

Because of global warming, people on earth suffer from abnormal heat, extreme cold, and unprecedented downpours with thunderstorms.

in modern Russia

According to Rosgidromet data for 2018, the average annual temperature has increased throughout the country over the past 30 years. This is especially noticeable in Chukotka, where it has grown by more than 3 °C.

The number of dangerous agro-and hydrometeorological phenomena due to global warming is growing throughout Russia. The amount of water in rivers, seas, and lakes is decreasing.

In the future, small reservoirs will dry up and become very shallow. Permafrost will melt - a giant repository of greenhouse gases and dangerous microorganisms, including those unknown to science.

The climate is not changing the way it used to

The climate on Earth has changed since it has existed. Over millions of years, warm and cold periods have naturally alternated. However, warming, which is now much talked about and written about, is a change caused by human economic activity.

Future forecast

The pessimistic scenario. According to model calculations, if urgent action is not taken, about 529,000 deaths per year are expected on the planet due to poor nutrition, especially reduced consumption of vegetables and fruits. The German Institute for economic research estimates that by 2050, climate change will lead to economic losses of $ 200,000 billion.

According to the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), as a result of ice melting by 2100, the level of the world's oceans will increase by 0.19-0.58 m. New sources report an increase of up to 2 m. In many years, it may reach about 2.3 m for every additional degree of Celsius.

An optimistic scenario. It is impossible to stop heating, but if it can be slowed down, living creatures will have time to adapt to changing conditions. The melting of glaciers will slow down, and fewer people will be affected by floods. The number of unbearably hot days will be reduced.

Russia has the greatest potential to contain global warming, as there are many places on the country's territory where forests can be planted to prevent a disaster.

Ways to solve the problem and prevent the crisis.

Representatives of States regularly meet to discuss the issue.

The most important environmental protection documents were signed in 1997 and 2015.

These are the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris agreement, ratified by Russia in the fall of 2019. They supplemented the UN framework Convention on climate change of 1992. The country decided:

- No later than by 2050 to reach the level of "zero emissions" of carbon dioxide.

- Significantly reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases, especially methane.

- To reduce the consumption of electricity.

- To decarbonize energy, that is, completely abandon the use of organic fuels with CO2 content and switch to alternative energy sources.

- Reduce greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture.

- Use methods for cleaning water and air from carbon dioxide.

The implementation of these measures will help to avoid an impending disaster.

However, climate scientists criticize the agreements, since they are not signed by all countries and do not provide for any responsibility for failure to achieve the goals. In 2017, the United States, which ranks second in terms of emissions of pollutants, announced its withdrawal from the Paris agreement. Ordinary citizens, politicians, businessmen, environmentalists, and religious figures opposed it.

Following climate change, everything on the planet is changing. And scientists ' arguments about the reasons do not subside. Too many introductions – the location of orbits, proximity to the Sun, volcanic eruptions. And with the advent of new research methods, more and more questions arise.

Global melting is a grim picture of the future. But, according to scientists, it is inevitable if we do not act. You need to live with nature, not fight it.

Analysis and systematization of special literature allow us to draw the following conclusions:

- global warming means an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World's oceans and its predicted continuation;

- there are several reasons that caused global warming – changes in The earth's orbit and solar activity (including changes in the solar constant), volcanic emissions, and an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases caused by human activity;

- rising temperatures, rising sea levels, melting glaciers-the main factors that prove global warming on the planet;

- the consequences of global warming affect not only our way of life, but also the fact that we will live.

It is clear that not everyone will get the Nobel prize and invent something unimaginable that will change life on the whole planet. But every person, to the best of their ability, should try to contribute to this, to contribute their own drop.

Most probably

Maybe.

I wrote a Chapter for the book. However, it is written in Russian. Nevertheless, I attach it to discuss this problem.

The decision whether the climate is going colder or warmer rests with the gases in the atmosphere. It has been like that since the creation of the Earth.

If you increase the greenhouse gases (the case today) the climate is going to be warmer. The more these gases, the warmer it gets.

If you decrease these same gases a lot, you get an Ice Age.

Once in a while the balance of gases is upset by a collision with an asteroid, but that is very rare.

At the moment the greenhouse gases are extremely high and getting higher as people refuse to abandon the burning of the fossil fuels.

If you are able to remove these greenhouse gases from the air (anything is possible) a new Ice Age can be achieved.