Dear Prof. Kheepe Lawrence Moremi

My reduced undestanding of this is that the great depression was the most severe economic depression of the XX century & that its whereabouts are still unknown (accordingly to wiki exist some economic theories of the Great Depression that explains the origins, but they are only theories [1])

Although the worst political and human crisis of the XX century was during the second world war, surprisingly is not the worst economic crisis of that century. How come worst world XX century "crisis (war) & depresion (economic)" are not congruent?

About the take over of the chimera SARS-CoV-20, it looks that the crisis is not only a human one but also an economic depresion, I guess (jobs, factories, oil suppliers) but still is not a war among humans.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

Thank you for your time and response Prof. Pedro L. Contreras E.

Your view is that the Great Depression was the worst. I deduce from this that you have eliminated the 1929 as a reference point. Are you then saying that the 2008 GFC could be the reference point and an acceptable comparable? NB: The focus is not on "worst human and political experience."

Neither 1929GD nor 2008GFC are, in my historical view, good reference points.

This great global paranoia, with all its irrational politization and interventionist control storms, can kill the economy, but not the virus.

A better understanding of social anthropology, natural plagues and the human economy is needed to 'normalize' the current situation.

Well Dear Prof. Kheepe Lawrence Moremi

In 2008 vzla didn´t feel any finantial crisis (oil barrel ~ 100 US $) so for me 2008 GFC is not a reference point. Now happens the same, we don´t feel any crisis, since our internal hyperinflation started 3 years ago & the venezuelan oil industry was already brought to its knees at that time. So I take as a temporal reference the 1929 GD.

Interesting to see an hyperinflation chart poweder by Prof. Hanke:

https://twitter.com/stevehanke_es/status/1238586599568523264

Our hyperinflationary misfortune is a little more than a year ahead of the rest of the world according to Prof. Hanke chart (02/2019 we had a peak). But I can tell you something for sure: humankind can survive with 1/3 pound of white rice & a cooked green banana daily per person. No toothpaste & teeth falling out, all people alive until a lack of medications, either the bug, kills the mayority.

Thank you Stephen I. Ternyik

Your position is that neither the 1929 GD and 2008 GFC are "comparable."

Thank you Prof. Pedro L. Contreras E.

To summarise your position, you are saying that using Venezuela as a unit of analysis, one cannot use the 2008 GFC as comparable? To support your argument, you refer to two (2) variables; 1) inflation and; 2) the price of brent crude oil. You conclude that the 1929 GD is a closer comparable?

Indeed Prof. Kheepe Lawrence Moremi, the 1929 GD is a closer comparable (inflation) but the price of brent crude is a new variable that has to be included for the 2020 event.

Thank you for your response Prof. Pedro L. Contreras E. , very useful. What I am essentially taking out of your submission is that we need to look at; 1) global dynamics and "averages" as well as; 2) country dynamics to do justice to the investigation?

"The world is not flat, but spikey."

Yes Kheepe Lawrence Moremi , 1929GD and 2008GFC fall into a different analytic category (monetophysics) than this great global paranoia (social anthropology, epidemics and /direction of/ economic evolution).

Article Monetophysics

https://www.theglobaldispatch.com/aldous-huxley-quotes-21499/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

Interesting take Stephen I. Ternyik . Illusion Vs Paranoia, in a way?

The first one will sufix Prof. Kheepe Lawrence Moremi global dynamics and "averages" (in 1929 did not exist globalization)

Thank you Prof. Pedro L. Contreras E.

An interesting issue/discussion, but the Covid-19 process must be completed for real evaluation.

Thank you for your contribution Ilhami Unluoglu

Your assessment makes sense, but we can still extrapolate, based on what we have seen so far. Granted that we may not have seen enough.

Transdisciplinary study can answer many questions. But transdisciplinarity remains an insurmountable barrier. I regard transdisciplinarity not as a quality of science, but it is a quality of a researcher. The Great Depression of 1929 and Coronavirus 2020 are based on transdisciplinary causes. Economists can record symptoms - the Great Depression of 1929, the crisis of 2008, or coronavirus 2020, the engine of all these events is perceived by economists as some kind of tsunami, storm, or other uncontrollable natural disaster. But all these crises are caused not by an earthquake and the fall of the moon to the earth, but by disturbances in the work of the global human body and errors in managing the environment. By the example of coronavirus, we see that a global person is an organism in which all changes and innovations quickly spread. In the list of countries that are most affected by coronavirus, we see the most advanced countries led by the United States. What conclusions should be drawn? If these countries (led by the USA) do not draw certain conclusions (it is necessary to manage and not ignore some important internal and external processes), then we can expect economic recovery not in the form of V or L, but in the form \. The cause of economic crises are problems with the person himself (since the economy is a person). Problems in the economy are a reflection of problems within a person, and until these problems are resolved we will see cataclysms in the idea of ​​depression in 1929 or 2008, or coronavirus 2020.

Thank you for the detailed response Vasil Grigoriev

Very clear, the unit of analysis should be human behaviour?

The economic consequences of this outbreak will be serious and they will cause damages not only to the tourist destinations with an important concentration of cases but also at a global level. A similar case is the outbreak of SARS in 2002. Tourism is currently –March 2020- one of the most affected sectors and the World Tourism Organization has revised its 2020 forecast for international arrivals and receipts, though it emphasizes that such predictions are likely to be further revised.

Thank you for your contribution Sotiris Folinas

I take the cue. From a sectoral perspective, especially tourism, COVID-19 impact is similar to SARS?

Very often, to solve a problem, a detailed study of the processes begins, immersion at the level of molecules and genes in the microworld. But plunging deep into the process, it is also necessary to understand the general schemes of the process. The development of research in only one direction - in the microworld, may not provide a solution to the problem - in the macrocosm. Microprocesses may not indicate what causes this microprocess. The presence of crises such as the Great Depression, the 2008 crisis, or coronavirus is the result of a lack of coordination between micro and macro understanding of processes. The presence of recessions in the development of the economy is associated with the presence of significant problems within the person himself and ignoring many external problems. The Great Depression, the 2008 crisis and coronavirus are the result of these unresolved problems within the person himself and in the environment that surrounds the person. Unresolved issues generate distrust and apathy, not enthusiasm. If there is a problem, then it must be solved not on the basis of economic feasibility or group expediency, but on the basis of the needs of man and the environment. Indeed, in the end, a more productive way is to take into account the needs of a person and the environment, rather than economic or group expediency. The crises of economic and human health are the result of the dominance of economic and group expediency. The coronavirus crisis clearly shows us that the economic crisis is a crisis of the person himself. Economic crises are the result of a crisis within a person.

Thank you for a detailed response Vasil Grigoriev . No doubt, the study of economies or economics, is the study of human choices and behaviour. The rest, are scoreboards of the outputs, outcomes and impacts of human choices and actions.

The Covid 19 outbreak is a crisis similar to the 1929 depression. Because global demand collapsed suddenly. The difference between demand and supply opened in short time. Considering the Keynesian Model's purpose of emergence, the similarity of the crises will be better understood. In addition, Covid left the 2008 Financial Crisis behind in terms of its economic impact.

But the duration of the crisis will be much shorter. Because the world is smaller now. The world, a city 100 years ago, turned into a village in 2020. The mobility of economies has improved a lot.

Thank you for your time and contribution Orhan Şanlı

Thank you to all of you who participated in this thread for your insightful and educational contributions. Much appreciated.

What is most likely is the growing research capacity in the context of the pandemic, including in the field of international economic relations as well as socio-economic issues of regions and cities. This is not often that the case is on a global scale.

Thank you Agnieszka Jania for your time and contribution. Growing stock of knowledge and research is definitely a real possibility. For the first time, you hear even lay people developing interest in concepts and phenomena such as "flattening the curve" etc.,

Peak Horse came about in 1915 because of policies in Great Britain and the USA (in roughly 1900) that required moving away from a horse-power economy and to a internal combustion engine economy. In so doing, a substantial shift in productivity, labour allocation, and where the concentration of wealth was occurred. I would argue that the policies that produced Peak Horse also led directly to WW1 (at the peak), the Roaring 20s (as people take advantage of the new technology), the Great Depression (as both ecology and society can't keep up with the changes), and contributed to WW2.

2008 saw Peak World Conventional Oil, and economic growth of 10% per year was now impossible (had been for a while) in a fossil-carbon economy. Despite this, oil companies still use a 10% discount rate in their internal maths today. This leads to strange investments and artificial incentives. In about 1990 the world made a choice to start investments in alternatives (Energy Policy Act of 1992 in US, for example, or IPCC being formed in 1988), and about 15 years later, production of conventional oil peaked (these are not directly causal). The implications of this transition can be expected to continue to be felt for some time to come, as the EROI of the fossil alternatives continue to fall, and the EROI of the non-fossil alternatives continue to rise. I would argue that the US electing a circus in 2016 was a unsurprising outcome, as is the plan by Biden to invest heavily in non-fossil sources.

Both of these Peaks were associated with a transition. It took 15 years from policy to peak, and then 25 years for the implications to work through society.

I think COVID is likely to have a very short 'ramp up' until we have a useful vaccine - say 2-3 years for discussion's sake - and then I would expect a relatively short period of forgetfullness - say in the order of 5-10 years. Since we can expect a number of other peaks to occur over the next 10 years (Peak US Tight Oil immediately, Peak Conventional Agriculture in the next few years, Peak Natural Gas in 2030), causing us to ignore what we could have learned - I don't think it represents a transition. So I don't think it will follow a similar trajectory of either Peak Horse or Peak Conventional Oil.

That being said, I think COVID has a chance of encouraging more localized supply chains, more on-line communication and thus improved high-speed connectivity, and a reduction in commuting for office workers. All of these things will increase quality of life, so it is possible that we may end up exchanging GNP for quality of life. I am cautiously optimistic.

Thank you for a very detailed and considered contribution Douglas Nuttall . Your reference to the "Peaks" is enlightening. I agree with your observation about the impact; localised supply chains; work from home and reduced commuting...