hi everybody,
i am trying to develop my own adaptive exponential smoothing to forecast a particular time series.
but i note the follow: the better the Tracking Signal is [-3.5;+3.5] (which is acceptable in my case); the higher Mean Absolute Error (MAE) i got!!!
my questions:
1-is this normal? or i may did something wrong?
2- suppose that i have to focus on MAE; can i ignore the Tracking Signal?
best regards;