hi everybody,

i am trying to develop my own adaptive exponential smoothing to forecast a particular time series.

but i note the follow: the better the Tracking Signal is [-3.5;+3.5] (which is acceptable in my case); the higher Mean Absolute Error (MAE) i got!!!

my questions:

1-is this normal? or i may did something wrong?

2- suppose that i have to focus on MAE; can i ignore the Tracking Signal?

best regards;

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