Historically, most employment was home-based. Transition occurred.
- 19th Century: Mechanization allowed personal transportation and distant communication (e.g. telegraph, telephone).
- 20th Century: Mechanical technology combined with universal electrification allowed computerization.
- 21st Century: Computerized manufacturing allows "factory" workers to join the office staff. Meanwhile, traditional office workers (i.e. government, education and business) are increasingly able to complete their daily tasks remotely from home.
- Trend: Socialization is becoming the primary function of office and school buildings. Digital socialization, combined with automated mechanization, communication and the economic and environmental costs of transportation, encourage home-based social functions (i.e. meetings, breaks) through digital interactive services.
Since economics always wins long-term, please discuss why "office" workers may become a 20th century anomaly replaced by historical home-based work.
The hypotheses you propose are interestiong. Anyway, you might have to take into account some changes already implemented in the wotk society:
1. The soaring demand for personal service jobs: automation of these activities might be difficult and more expensive than the use of humans
2. The possible transition from our linear economy to a more circular one which could, at least at the beginning, need more humans than now (even if the automation nof many tasks is a sine qua non condition for this transition)
and some others
You might be interested in having a look at these strategic foresight studies:
Book Preview: Platformisation 2027
Presentation Workers in a circular economy in 2040, a foresight study (Wien)
Preprint A circular economy in 2040. What impact on occupational safe...
Conference Paper Regulating the OSH impact on online platform economy (OSHA S...
Book Modes and methods of production in France in 2040
Presentation Strategic foresight in occupational exposure: Preparing the ...
Flexjobs Corporation reckons that half of all American employees hold a job deemed compatible with telework: it notes that, in the U.S., telecommuting has grown grew 103% since 2009 and expects that 50% of people will work remotely by 2020 (Flexjobs Corporation, 2019).
Interesting points, Gary. As factories become increasingly automated, and other advancements such as telemedicine, I've noticed the same trend you're talking about. Even in education, of course. Programmed, online courses, or even courses taught "linear/live," but remotely, are becoming commonplace.
Two factors that will accelerate this trend are the rapidly rising cost of anything that involves manual labor, and the environment. Any industry that is very labor intensive, and I'd say that medicine and education are two such industries, cannot hope to manage their increasing and very high costs, unless they exploit modern communications. Think of the huge reach that one professor can have, if he/she exploits the Internet, compared with standing in front of a classroom.
Or, just pay attention to rush hour traffic jams, and think what they do to our environment. What a colossal waste of resources, of time, and of clean air. Repeated twice a day, every day. It's starting to sound like madness, no?
The own-sides? Maybe people can become too isolated, like hermits. Still, the old 20th century order is quite unsustainable. I think that's the main point in this.
- Badges
- Science topic