It seems that a new wave of COVID-19 pandemic has been started. Although rumours are about a more deadly Coronavirus, it does not seems to be realistic since a more successful parasite is the one that does not kill the host rapidly. If a parasite kills its host rapidly, it will decrease the chance of spreading. I was wondering if we may face a more infective but less killing Corona virus in the new COVID-19 wave?
Hi;
The second wave of the 1918 Spanish Influenza H1N1 pandemic, as well as the 1957 Asian Influenza H2N2 and the 1968 Hong Kong Influenza H3N2 was highly contagious and deadly, with some infected people dying within days or even hours. This wave infected up to five times as many people as in the spring of 1918. I believe that in the next few days we may have to deal with a second wave of Covid-19 as well as seasonal flues at the same time.
With my best regards
Yes. Coronavirus spoiled everything. As of today, around 39,287,300 positive cases and 1,104,530 deaths are reported world wide. This picture itself show how destructive corona virus is..and spreading uncontrollable...The whole world is eagerly waiting for the proper vaccine..hope for the best...
I think the second wave will be more deadly on the individual level. As the evidence of reinfection found in different countries and it comes with other complications and post-COVID difficulties. So, the chance of mortality will be more.
What is confusing is that new reports are about a deadlier COVID-19. However, according to the evolution theory, a parasite such as COVID-19 could be more successful if it does not kill its host
Actually it is hard to answer this question as we don't have enough information about this virus. Hopefully the second wave won't be as strong as the first one.
There are many possible factors such as mutation , seasonal flu (starts in October and ends in May) which may liable for Covid-19 worse situation.
A second wave could start with many unknowing Covid-19 carriers in many different areas, and the risk of transmission increases when people spend more time together indoors, which is more common in the fall and winter months. It's a challenge because now there are so many different chains of infection to follow. In the beginning, we had the opportunity to do contact tracing and quarantine, but now that the disease is widespread, it makes it harder to detect and control transmission.
Experts speculate that it was precisely this sort of mutation that made the second wave of Spanish flu so severe, leading to 50 million deaths worldwide.
If the Covid-19 virus mutates into something more lethal, the consequent pandemic would make the current one look small.
Doctors, clinics, and hospitals recognize the chance that COVID-19 cases could start increasing in the fall. They are working with manufacturers to stock up on equipment, and they are continuing their policies for protecting patients and staff members.
Here's what you can do now:
Continue to practice COVID-19 precautions, such as physical distancing, hand-washing, and mask-wearing.
Stay in touch with local health authorities, who can provide information if COVID-19 cases begin to increase in your city or town.
Make sure your household maintains two weeks’ worth of food, prescription medicines, and supplies.
Work with your doctor to ensure that everyone in your household, especially children, is up to date on vaccines, including this year’s flu shot when it is available.
Arash Yoosefdoost
While it is entire true that a parasite or virus will be more successful if it does not kill the host. And so that viruses over time will become more benign.
There is however the matter of time scale here, if a parasite or virus do not kill the host, this host will go on and get offspring - which in turn can get infected.
COVID-19 mostly kill older people, who are past the age where they get children. This means this moderating effect will be less pronounced for COVID.
Secondly, 9 months or a year is not enough of a timeframe to affect the development path of the virus either, the mutations we see are entirely random.
Lastly, we should be extremely careful to spread rumours, or unfounded guesses either. There have been talk in another thread that the new strain that is active now is more infectious but cause somewhat less fatalities.
Now that those who get infected in Europe are of a lower age than the first wave, there will be less persons in ICU as well as fewer fatalities - do I say that is true for all regions and localities? Of course not, let us wait until we get data or information either from a paper in preprint or from the authorities before stating anything.
Gaber El-Saber Batiha This is a very interestingstig paper! Thank you!
actually, might be there is no second wave but the persons were not infected at the first time may get Covid-19 in this seasonal change worse than before with less medical persuasions.
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