Compared with summer crops such as corn and soybean, rice cultivation in most areas requires a large amount of water resources to ensure a stable physiological state. Moreover, the fertilizer utilization efficiency is low, and the growing environment with high temperature and humidity is prone to diseases and insect pests, which increases the management cost and environmental pressure. In the context of the foreseeable future water shortage, do you think it is necessary to change the mainstream crops in Southeast Asia?
Worldwide rice production was 600 million tons in 2000 and with a 1.5-fold increase it may go up to 904 million tons by 2030. Rice cultivation is carried out on about 161 million ha worldwide, where about 678.7 million tons of paddy are produced annually. The results of the impact assessment under different climate scenarios indicated that the rice growth period would shorten and yield would decrease in the future. Rice production is both a victim and a contributor to climate change. Drought, flood, saltwater, and extreme temperatures devastate crops and risk the livelihoods of 144 million smallholder rice farmers each growing season. Over 3.5 billion people rely on rice as a daily staple, but the crop has an undeniable environmental impact. Rice farming consumes up to one-third of the world's developed freshwater resources and generates up to 20% of global anthropogenic emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Often rice crop suffers with soil moisture stress due to erratic and inadequate rainfall. In upland soils rain water flows down quickly and farmers are not able to conserve the soil moisture. Currently, India produces 74.68 MT of kharif rice in suitable areas. The report noted that a 30% increase in production in suitable areas (97.08 MT) will be required to meet the demand for rice by 2030. However, to meet the demand by 2050 (197.40 MT), the rate has to be increased by more than 30%.
@Rk Naresh
As you mentioned, rice is a major food crop in the world, and it is an important part of the food culture in many countries, and as the population of these rice-eating countries grows, so does the demand for rice. To be clear, the crux of the discussion is: Will such a situation arise? In the face of foreseeable adverse conditions in the future (abnormal climate, water shortage, increased fertilizer use, increased pest and disease, etc.), will the country need to come up with a strategy to change the cultivation of staple crops to ensure that the population has food to eat?
Gentlemen, your perspective is very narrow. You take more or less only the cost perspective into consideration. In America, the industrialisation of food distribution has now reached a point where the consumer becomes a permanent patient and health costs are exploding. So we will see a gradual shift away from low-cost to organic food or better-quality food. People will reallocate money to spend!
In Asia, the population is growing and with that the standard of living is also improving. More People will be able to afford more and better food. Some countries become more efficient in food production than others. (E.g Indonesia was 30 years ago a rice importer. Today they are successful rice exporters!)
With the growth in disposable cash new circular technologies will be used in food production. People will be able to continue acquiring their staple food or they will be ready to experiment with new forms of foods. If the masses can't afford to procure food, politicians will import it from low-cost producers, start a war with low-cost producers or they will fix it through macroeconomic measures. Thus for scientists, the focus should be to improve productivity (better control of soil quality) and product quality. (to create more secondary metabolites and less toxic metals in the food).
Rice is a staple food and hence it is highly unlikely to be replaced totally. Existing varieties will certainly be replaced by new improved ones and may be new species of Oryza or related genera may replace certain Oryza sativa varieties in certain rice ecosystems.
After inquiring more information and thinking, I learned that: now the breeding team in China has cultivated rice to grow at an average temperature of 38℃. Of course, their quality cannot reach a good level, but this has ensured the function of rice as a ration. If extreme weather in the future can significantly reduce the yield of such a variety, then I think other food crops will also be difficult to maintain a stable yield.
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