The impact of clouds on future warming due to greenhouse gas increases and internal variability in the climate system is complex and can both enhance and diminish warming, depending on various factors. Clouds can act as both a positive and negative feedback in the context of climate change.
Positive Feedback (Enhancing Warming):Clouds can enhance warming when they have a net positive feedback effect. This typically occurs when clouds amplify the greenhouse effect by trapping more outgoing longwave radiation, thus increasing surface temperatures. This is often referred to as the "cloud greenhouse effect." In some situations, as the climate warms, clouds may become thinner and allow more solar radiation to reach the surface, which can further increase temperatures. This is known as the "cloud albedo feedback."
Negative Feedback (Diminishing Warming):Clouds can act as a negative feedback when they reflect incoming solar radiation back to space, reducing the amount of energy absorbed by the Earth's surface. This is called the "cloud albedo effect." In this case, clouds help cool the Earth and mitigate warming. In certain conditions, a warming climate may lead to more low-level clouds, which can have a cooling effect by increasing reflection of solar radiation and shading the surface.
The net effect of clouds on future warming depends on several factors, including cloud type, altitude, coverage, and location. These factors can vary regionally and temporally, making cloud feedbacks a complex aspect of climate modeling.
Additionally, internal variability in the climate system, such as El Niño and La Niña events, can influence cloud patterns and their feedback effects. For example, during El Niño events, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns can affect cloud cover and distribution, which can in turn impact temperature patterns.
In climate models used to project future climate change, the treatment of cloud feedbacks is a significant source of uncertainty. Scientists continue to refine these models and study cloud behavior to improve our understanding of their role in climate change. As a result, the exact influence of clouds on future warming due to greenhouse gas increases and internal variability remains an active area of research within climate science.
The net effect of clouds on the climate today is to cool the surface by about 5°C (9°F). One can calculate that a higher surface temperature would result from the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the consequent slowing of heat radiation from the surface, provided nothing else changes. Clouds are an important part of Earth's planetary greenhouse. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane are perhaps more widely discussed, but clouds can do the same thing: they warm our planet by trapping heat beneath them. Because high clouds absorb energy so efficiently, they have the potential to raise global temperatures. In a world with high clouds, much of the energy that would otherwise escape to space is captured in the atmosphere. High clouds make the world a warmer place. At its simplest, the more clouds you have, the more sunlight they reflect and that dampens global warming. But clouds also interact with the infrared radiation that is emitted by the Earth in different ways too, which has a warming effect. Clouds, on the other hand, do exert a blanketing effect similar to that of the greenhouse gases; however, this effect is offset by their reflectivity, such that on average, clouds tend to have a cooling effect on climate (although locally one can feel the warming effect: cloudy nights tend to remain warmer than clear night. Clouds warm Earth's surface by absorbing heat emitted from the surface and re-radiating it back down toward the surface. Clouds warm or cool Earth's atmosphere by absorbing heat emitted from the surface and radiating it to space. Clouds play a vital role in our climate by regulating the amount of solar energy that reaches the surface and the amount of the Earth's energy that is radiated back into space. The more energy that is trapped by the planet, the warmer our climate will grow. If less energy is collected, the climate will become cooler. It stores our pictures and emails, it powers our internet searches, and it helps us stream movies and box sets. But out of sight, the cloud depends on processing factories - vast data centres that use enormous amounts of power and water. Every time we go online, we increase its carbon footprint. When heat radiation from the surface slows, as caused by increasing greenhouse gas abundances, the balance can only be maintained if the temperature rises. Changing clouds can alter this relation, either increasing or decreasing the magnitude of the resulting temperature increase. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere repeatedly absorb and re-radiate infrared radiation (heat). High clouds trap long wave, infrared radiation (heat) re-radiated from Earth's surface. However, low clouds reflect incoming sunlight (shortwave radiation) back to space. High, thin clouds primarily transmit incoming solar radiation; at the same time, they trap some of the outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the Earth and radiate it back downward, thereby warming the surface of the Earth. Too much of these greenhouse gases can cause Earth's atmosphere to trap more and more heat. This causes Earth to warm up. Clouds can have both warming and cooling effects on climate. They cool the planet by reflecting sunlight during the day, and they warm the planet by slowing the escape of heat to space (this is most apparent at night, as cloudy nights are usually warmer than clear nights). The problem we now face is that human activities – particularly burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), agriculture and land clearing are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases. This is increasing the greenhouse effect, which is contributing to warming of the Earth. The greenhouse effect happens when certain gases—known as greenhouse gases—collect in Earth's atmosphere. These gases, which occur naturally in the atmosphere, include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, and fluorinated gases sometimes known as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by making power on-site with renewable and other climate-friendly energy resources. Examples include rooftop solar panels, solar water heating, and small-scale wind generation, fuel cells powered by natural gas or renewable hydrogen, and geothermal energy. Internal variability consists of the naturally occurring variations in climate on timescales from daily weather to multidecadal processes due to interactions between various components of the Earth system. Climate variability is the way aspects of climate (such as temperature and precipitation) differ from an average. Climate variability occurs due to natural and sometimes periodic changes in the circulation of the air and ocean, volcanic eruptions, and other factors.