I am interested in working climate projection and the probable impact of climate change on water resources in Eastern Africa. Which CMIP6 models are suited to use in Eastern African climate change projection? Is there any suggestion in selecting appropriate models?
It would be interesting to evaluate the historical data for the CMIP6 scenarios of interest against observed data for the region and from there define the best fit.
I hope these studies can help you
Article Extreme climate indices in Brazil: evaluation of downscaled ...
Article Evaluation of the ability of CMIP6 models to simulate precip...
It would be suitable for CORDEX to evaluate regional climate changes.
https://cordex.org/experiment-guidelines/cordex-cmip6/
Looking for good historical fit is very reasonable. However, it is by no means a guarantee that this pattern is perpetuated into the future since all climate models are (gross) simplifications of the true processes at work (of which our understanding is still incomplete). Moreover, downscaled climate predictions are again obtained by modeling and rely on fitted relationships (e.g. with elevation) that may actually change over time.
Using all available or many climate models in a consensus/ensemble approach might be more robust than relying on the (unknown) accuracy of a single future climate model. Maybe weighting them by their historical fit would allow you factor in the assumption/expectation that good models will remain good in the future.
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