I am studying climate change impact on thermal stratification of Sabalan dam reservoir, Ardabil, Iran. I'm not sure which model or scenario to use. As you know there are a wide variety of models to employ for this purpose. Is there like any way that I can figure out which model is more accurate to predict climate change in this region.
38°32'32.3"N 47°57'58.0"E
Dear Saber
Usually, two scenarios RCP4.5 (low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) are used to predict climate change impacts.
The best strategy is to take one of the widely used community models, e.g., WRF, RegCM and search literatures for the best combination of physics and parameterizations for your particular region or do sensitivity studies on combinations. Once the best physics and parameters combinations are found, performance evaluation for the current climate follows. If the performance is good projections can be done based on different RCP scenarios, usually 4.5 and 8.5 for extreme low/high emissions. Other moderate emissions scenarios 6.2 and based on Paris agreement to reduce temperature to 1.5 to 2 C is also alternative scenarios.
Good luck,
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